Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
318 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Late afternoon through tonight: The upper low has moved little
today, and so there continues to be a concern for localized heavy
rainfall as deep layer cyclonic flow and strong moisture
convergence combine with moist (precipitable water up to 1.5
inches) and unstable air (MUCAPE up to 2000 j/kg) to produce
considerable convective rainfall coverage over north central into
eastern MS. A few multicell segments may train over this area with
localized rainfall rates of 2-3 inches in a few hours. Given the
recent heavy rainfall, and per WPC excessive rainfall outlook,
will maintain a limited threat for localized flash flooding in the
graphics. Otherwise, the marginal risk for a few briefly severe
storms continues over mainly the northeast half of the forecast
area through this evening. /EC/

Monday through Tuesday: The upper low will finally begin to make
a move northeast, but this will be a slow process, so a wet
pattern will persist through early this week with diurnally
enhanced rain chances only slowly diminishing through Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday: In the wake, an upper ridge and
associated 850 thermal ridge will build over the area and yield
near record high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Drier air
will stave off rain chancnext weekendes Wednesday and Thursday,
but recent rainfall and moist ground conditions will likely result
in more humid conditions. While this does act as a cap on
temperature, it should raise heat stress. Not expecting to reach
heat advisory criteria, but can't rule out a 105 heat index in
isolated spots. Heat looks to peak Friday with the warmest
temperatures of the season thus far expected.

Friday night through the next weekend: A strong polar stream
shortwave trough crossing the northern plains to upper midwest
region will help to suppress the ridge some as we finish up the
work week and go into next weekend. While much of the upper
forcing will be deflected to the northwest thanks to a still
dominant ridge, rain chances will return across the north Friday.
With further weakening of the ridge into the weekend, rain chances
will steadily increase across the area. This weather pattern
could catch some off guard in terms of storm and heavy rainfall
potential as mid/upper level flow will be seasonably strong
between the trough and ridge, and the hot warm sector will likely
support high levels of instability. We'll be monitoring this time
window for storm threats as we go through the next few days.
/SAS/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through around 5Z at most sites
before conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR and brief periods of
LIFR. -RA/-TSRA will be possible before 6Z with areas of BR with
visibilities >2sm possible around 8-10Z especially at southern TAF
sites. /KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       59  74  60  83 /  40  60  20  10
Meridian      58  76  58  80 /  70  70  20  30
Vicksburg     59  76  61  85 /  10  40  10  10
Hattiesburg   60  77  60  86 /  40  60  10  20
Natchez       58  75  60  85 /  10  40  10   0
Greenville    61  76  62  83 /  40  50  30  10
Greenwood     61  76  61  82 /  60  60  30  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

EC/SAS/KP

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
311 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

MSZ050-051-056-112100-
Scott MS-Smith MS-Newton MS-
311 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON...
NORTHEASTERN SMITH AND SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
CDT...

At 311 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pineville, or 12 miles southeast of Forest, moving northwest at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Forest, Homewood, Pulaski, Pineville, and Roberts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8924 3222 8932 3214 8932 3208 8938
      3226 8971 3246 8948 3224 8922
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 131DEG 23KT 3220 8938

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DL