Severe Thunderstorm Warning 252, NWS Jackson, MS

331 
WWUS54 KJAN 062134
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL
434 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

LAC029-MSC001-037-063-062215-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0252.000000T0000Z-250506T2215Z/
Concordia LA-Jefferson MS-Franklin MS-Adams MS-
434 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL CONCORDIA PARISH...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND
ADAMS COUNTIES...

At 434 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Kingston, or 8
miles south of Natchez, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Natchez, Cranfield, and Stanton around 440 PM CDT.
  Roxie and Stampley around 445 PM CDT.
  Hamburg and Mcnair around 450 PM CDT.
  Fayette around 455 PM CDT.
  Red Lick around 510 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3154 9154 3185 9094 3183 9085 3179 9085
      3179 9082 3166 9074 3162 9074 3161 9071
      3157 9068 3138 9117 3137 9122 3137 9127
      3131 9143 3132 9147 3129 9147 3128 9149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 235DEG 43KT 3145 9135 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KTW

938 
WWUS54 KJAN 062147
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL
447 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

LAC029-062156-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0252.000000T0000Z-250506T2215Z/
Concordia LA-
447 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CONCORDIA PARISH
IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 9138 3185 9094 3183 9085 3179 9085
      3179 9082 3166 9074 3162 9074 3161 9071
      3157 9068 3138 9117 3137 9122 3137 9127
      3132 9142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 235DEG 43KT 3154 9121 

$$

MSC001-037-063-062215-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0252.000000T0000Z-250506T2215Z/
Jefferson MS-Franklin MS-Adams MS-
447 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR JEFFERSON...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND EASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES...

At 446 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Cranfield, or
11 miles east of Natchez, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Roxie, Hamburg, Stanton, Stampley, and Mcnair around 450 PM CDT.
  Fayette around 455 PM CDT.
  Red Lick around 505 PM CDT.
  Union Church and Blue Hill around 510 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 9138 3185 9094 3183 9085 3179 9085
      3179 9082 3166 9074 3162 9074 3161 9071
      3157 9068 3138 9117 3137 9122 3137 9127
      3132 9142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 235DEG 43KT 3154 9121 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KTW

040 
WWUS54 KJAN 062152
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL
452 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

MSC001-037-063-062215-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0252.000000T0000Z-250506T2215Z/
Jefferson MS-Franklin MS-Adams MS-
452 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR JEFFERSON...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES...

At 452 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stampley, or 10
miles southwest of Fayette, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Fayette, Roxie, Hamburg, Stampley, and Mcnair around 455 PM CDT.
  Red Lick around 505 PM CDT.
  Union Church and Blue Hill around 510 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3166 9130 3185 9094 3183 9085 3179 9085
      3179 9082 3166 9074 3162 9074 3161 9071
      3157 9068 3138 9117 3137 9122 3137 9131
      3140 9136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 235DEG 43KT 3158 9114 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KTW

905 
WWUS54 KJAN 062201
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL
501 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

MSC001-037-063-062215-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0252.000000T0000Z-250506T2215Z/
Jefferson MS-Franklin MS-Adams MS-
501 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS
COUNTIES...

At 500 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mcnair, or near
Fayette, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Fayette and Red Lick around 505 PM CDT.
  Union Church and Blue Hill around 510 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3163 9120 3182 9096 3183 9085 3179 9085
      3179 9082 3166 9074 3162 9074 3161 9071
      3157 9068 3138 9117 3137 9120 3138 9124
      3144 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 235DEG 43KT 3164 9104 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KTW

738 
WWUS54 KJAN 062208
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL
508 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

MSC001-037-063-062218-
/O.EXP.KJAN.SV.W.0252.000000T0000Z-250506T2215Z/
Jefferson MS-Franklin MS-Adams MS-
508 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHERN
FRANKLIN AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3163 9120 3182 9096 3183 9085 3179 9085
      3179 9082 3166 9074 3162 9074 3161 9071
      3157 9068 3138 9117 3137 9120 3138 9124
      3144 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 235DEG 43KT 3169 9096 

$$

KTW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL
241 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Through Tonight...

The main threat will be heavy rain and flash flooding today, with
continuous bouts of diurnally driven rain expected through the rest of the
week. A Marginal Severe Threat (1 out of 5) exists for the southwestern two
thirds of the region, and a Slight Severe Threat (2 out of 5) exists for
areas around Natchez.

An end to our drier days is on the horizon today with the closed
low that is currently located to the southeast of the Four Corners
region making its way eastward throughout the day today. The
approaching low (situated on the western flank of an upper level
"Omega block") will result in a surge of warm moist air which will
help send the stalled boundary situated off of the coast back to
the north as a warm front emanating from the surface low over to
our west. This front will serve as a primary focusing mechanism
for our precipitation throughout the week. As the warm front
pushes through the area our low level dew points and temperatures
will increase up to 10F; in turn, providing 2in PWATs and IVT into
the 99th percentile through today. This temperature/moisture flux
generated by the powerful upper level disturbance will also
trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms through Louisiana and
spread eastward throughout the afternoon into the morning. Shower
and storm activity will serve to impede the northward progress of
the front and will likely result in the boundary becoming stalled
somewhere south of I-20. Thunderstorm coverage will increase
throughout the day and into the night, potentially organizing into
an MCS by sunset that could move eastward along the boundary,
further resulting in a stall of the boundary. Current guidance has
continued to trend towards a well defined area of heavy rain
(4-8in/12hrs) located in our southwestern quadrant (west of I- 55
& south of I-20) and this solution appears reasonable. With
replenished Gulf heat and humidity being pushed into the stalled
boundary, training and storm regeneration could result in a narrow
corridor of very intense (2+"/hr) rainfall rates over a prolonged
period/multiple waves of storms. While heavy rain and flash
flooding are the highest confidence threats for the Tuesday-
Wednesday timeframe, there does exist a potential for severe
thunderstorms through the southwestern portions of the CWA this
afternoon to evening. Model solutions have shifted little over the
past 24 hours and continue to indicate helicity values in the
lowest 3 km to exceed 200 M^2/S^2 with some opportunity for values
above 400 M^2/S^2 should mesoscale upscale growth occur. CAPE
values remain fairly subdued for early May; however, given our
frontally induced mechanical lifting there should be plenty of
lift that will not be overly reliant on thermodynamic instability.
While the column will be generally saturated, occasional dry air
intrusion through the mid levels could add a bit of evaporative
cooling and localized enhancement of convectively driven cold pool
downdraft winds. Upper-level diffluence is also fairly strong.
All this together in our southwestern zones has provided us ample
reasoning to signal a Marginal and Slight severe threat across
those areas. Primary hazards will be damaging wind and hail
perhaps up to quarter size, but a tornado or two can`t be ruled
out. Furthermore, conditions are ideal for wake low development
behind the brunt of precipitation, which could easily push out
50kt+ winds. Caution will need to be exercised as individuals may
feel that once the most active convection has passed that they
will be clear from the damaging wind threat. This will NOT be the
case, due to this wake low potential.

Once a sampling of the weather pattern takes place today and depending on
how these dynamics shift there remains a possibility of generating another
marginal severe threat for Wednesday, confidence remains low at this point
that another graphic will be needed./OAJ/

Tonight through Next Week...

The front is expected to stall out through the area and waver north to
south throughout the remainder of the period. Moisture levels will remain
elevated through the weekend and in conjunction with a few weak upper level
impulses transiting over the aforementioned front our rain chances will
remain above 25% each day through Saturday morning. Rain rates and storm
coverage with this activity look to be far more manageable for the rest of
the week with most areas receiving less than an additional inch late Friday
through the weekend. Shower/thunderstorm coverage will be primarily
diurnally driven, reaching a crescendo of widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms by mid-afternoon, winding down to scattered showers with an
isolated thunderstorm or two by late evening. This weekend
counties/parishes along and west of the Mississippi river, could see a
break in the rain but expect a lingering shower or two. Long term guidance
indicates it may be a week or more before we see a break in this pattern
and isolated to scattered diurnal rain chances are likely through the
remainder of the forecast period./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

VFR conditions continue through the area for now, however,
incoming showers/thunderstorms and subsequent lowered ceilings and
visibilities will cause MVFR to IFR conditions overnight into
Wednesday afternoon throughout the area. The poorest flying
conditions are forecast to be in the southern portions of the area
between 00Z this evening through 14Z Wednesday. Conditions are
forecast to begin to improve just beyond the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  79  63  81 / 100  70  40  60
Meridian      60  78  62  81 /  90  80  40  70
Vicksburg     63  79  63  81 / 100  60  30  50
Hattiesburg   65  80  65  81 /  90  90  60  90
Natchez       64  77  63  79 /  90  70  40  60
Greenville    63  76  63  79 /  90  50  20  50
Greenwood     63  78  63  82 /  90  70  30  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ040>043-047>066-
     072>074.

LA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

OAJ/OAJ/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL
132 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

LAZ023>026-061900-
Tensas LA-Catahoula LA-Concordia LA-Franklin LA-
132 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN TENSAS...
NORTHWESTERN CONCORDIA...CATAHOULA AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN PARISHES
THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 131 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Archie, or 7 miles west of Jonesville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Wallace Ridge, and Manifest around 135
  PM CDT.
  Wildsville around 140 PM CDT.
  Sicily Island around 150 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 9201 3211 9159 3174 9142 3148 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 231DEG 47KT 3164 9197

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL
147 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

MSZ048-053-054-059-062-061930-
Jefferson MS-Copiah MS-Lincoln MS-Hinds MS-Claiborne MS-
147 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CLAIBORNE...NORTHWESTERN
LINCOLN...EASTERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHWESTERN HINDS AND COPIAH COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

At 147 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Union Church, or 12 miles east of Fayette, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pleasant Hill, Union Church, Blue Hill, Peyton, and Mcbride around
  150 PM CDT.
  Allen and Barlow around 155 PM CDT.
  Glancy and Dentville around 215 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 9105 3212 9090 3212 9085 3214 9084
      3214 9086 3216 9084 3214 9082 3216 9076
      3190 9017 3161 9073 3161 9077
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 227DEG 36KT 3169 9085

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL
249 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

LAZ025-026-MSZ059>061-062045-
Tensas LA-Concordia LA-Adams MS-Jefferson MS-Franklin MS-
249 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL TENSAS AND
NORTHEASTERN CONCORDIA PARISHES...WESTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN AND ADAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 249 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Deer Park, or 15 miles southwest of Vidalia, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Natchez and Sibley around 255 PM CDT.
  Vidalia around 300 PM CDT.
  Cranfield and Stanton around 315 PM CDT.
  Church Hill and Stampley around 325 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3136 9165 3188 9136 3164 9096 3126 9155
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 225DEG 34KT 3137 9156

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL
333 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

LAZ015-023>026-MSZ060-062115-
Tensas LA-Richland LA-Catahoula LA-Concordia LA-Franklin LA-Adams MS-
333 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CONCORDIA...CATAHOULA...
SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN PARISHES IN
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
CDT...

At 333 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Jena to near Acme. Movement was northeast
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Monterey, Aimwell, Slocum, Archie, New Era, Manifest, and Mayna
  around 340 PM CDT.
  Sherwood, Jonesville, Wildsville, Wallace Ridge, and Rosefield
  around 345 PM CDT.
  Deer Park, Enterprise, Harrisonburg, and Frogmore around 350 PM
  CDT.
  Ferriday around 355 PM CDT.
  Natchez and Ridgecrest around 400 PM CDT.
  Sicily Island around 405 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 9201 3193 9191 3198 9189 3207 9193
      3209 9187 3216 9189 3217 9198 3221 9198
      3219 9201 3220 9201 3236 9186 3137 9127
      3132 9147 3129 9147 3120 9169 3130 9190
      3127 9195 3124 9194 3123 9199 3125 9200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 233DEG 40KT 3175 9216 3123 9180

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL
418 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

ARZ074-LAZ007-015-062200-
Ashley AR-Richland LA-Morehouse LA-
418 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN ASHLEY COUNTY...MOREHOUSE
AND WEST CENTRAL RICHLAND PARISHES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 418 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lawson to 6 miles southwest of
Sterlington. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Bastrop around 430 PM CDT.
  Beekman, Crossett, and West Crossett around 440 PM CDT.
  North Crossett around 445 PM CDT.
  Galion around 450 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3313 9211 3320 9214 3330 9198 3338 9196
      3339 9199 3340 9193 3292 9164 3219 9200
      3227 9199 3228 9204 3238 9200 3251 9190
      3261 9193 3266 9191 3271 9198 3271 9204
      3269 9205 3271 9206 3301 9207 3310 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 220DEG 45KT 3323 9250 3261 9212

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KTW