Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
331 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Tonight through next Wednesday...A shortwave is in the process of
lifting northeast from the Mid-Mississippi River Valley toward the
Great Lakes region this afternoon.  This shortwave will phase with a
longwave trough moving out of the nation's mid-section late tonight
into Friday.  This trough will deepen, becoming a closed low
pressure system as it swings east into and through the eastern half
of the United States late Friday through Saturday night.  This
system will send a cold front east into and eventually through the
CWA during the late Friday through Saturday night timeframe. Ahead
of this front, several disturbances aloft will continue to affect
the CWA, resulting more waves of showers and thunderstorms
moving through the area.

As expected, the outflow boundary that moved through the region this
morning and residual cloud cover left in its wake, have hinder
overall severe potential across the area this afternoon.  Some
breaks in the clouds late this afternoon has allowed for some
heating across portions of the area. With some level of instability
creeping back in late this afternoon and early evening, coupled with
cold temperatures aloft and just enough deep-layer wind shear, an
isolated severe storm can't be ruled out as another disturbance
moves through the region. Damaging wind gusts and hail to the
size of quarters will be possible with the most intense storms.

This disturbance will exit east and out of the area into early
Friday morning.  Scattered showers and storms will again exist
across the area on Friday afternoon as another, yet stronger, wave
moves across the region.  Sufficient instability (2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE), steep mid-level lapse rates (6.8-7.2 C/km @ 700-500mb &
vertical totals around 30), and 25-35 knots of deep-layer wind
shear, will again yield the potential for severe storms during this
time, and over a larger portion of the CWA.  Damaging wind gusts to
60 mph will be the primary concern with storms, along with hail to
the size of half dollars.

Come Friday late evening and overnight, the front itself will
finally begin pushing into the CWA. Once again, chances for showers
and storms will linger through the overnight hours., with the severe
potential coming to an end by midnight.  The front will continue
pushing south and east through the forecast area Saturday, with high
pressure building into the region in the wake of it. The best rain
chances during this time will be across mainly southern portions of
the area, with exiting Southeast Mississippi early Sunday morning.

Quiet weather, along with cooler drier conditions, will then exist
areawide across the forecast area come Sunday and continuing into
the start of the new work week.  By Tuesday night, rain chances
enter back into the forecast, with the start of another period of
active weather becoming possible on Wednesday. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

VFR flight categories prevail this aftn into early evening,
outside of storms. Some could cause brief reductions to MVFR to
IFR vsby & ceilings. Low stratus with flight categories falling to
IFR-LIFR & vsby reductions down to IFR will be a focus in the
latter half of the 18Z TAF cycle. Confidence is highest in
central to southern TAF sites (HKS, JAN, MEI, HBG, PIB & HEZ, with
the potential onset period starting around 02/09-13Z Friday &
persisting through 02/15-17Z. Additional storms are expected into
Friday aftn. Southerly winds, generally up to 10mph & brief higher
gusts, are expected today, light this evening & similar Friday. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  85  64  76 /  20  70  80  70
Meridian      62  83  63  76 /  30  70  70  90
Vicksburg     65  85  64  76 /  20  70  80  70
Hattiesburg   66  85  66  80 /  40  60  60  90
Natchez       65  84  64  76 /  30  60  70  70
Greenville    65  83  64  74 /  10  80  90  60
Greenwood     64  84  64  75 /  10  70  90  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

19/DC