Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
228 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Tonight:

Storms exit the area late this evening from west to east with
cooler air moving in behind. This will result in a night with lows
across the area in the 30s for most north of I-20 and 40s to the
south. Freezing temperatures are possible in southeast Arkansas.

Through mid week next week:

Otherwise, ongoing forecast thinking remains unchanged and the
previous extended forecast is attached below, with the next storm
threat anticipated on Saturday when a significant severe weather
event is possible. An "Enhanced" (3 out of 5) risk for severe
weather remains valid for much of the area on Saturday. /86/

Previous Discussion:

Thursday through Tuesday:

Surface ridging will provide a brief break from the rainfall
Thursday and Friday as it traverses over the central CONUS.
Southerly flow will help Gulf moisture return to the region and
bring afternoon temps to the lower 70s to near 80 degrees by
Saturday.

Although warm temps are expected Saturday, rain will also return
as well as an upper-lvl trough progresses east, pushing a cold
front into the area. With mid-60 dewpoints, sufficient shear and
instability in place, strong to severe storms will be possible.
Continue to check back for updates as this system is several days
away. Depending on rainfall amounts from the next couple of days,
flooding could be possible with this system as soils will be
saturated and additional 1-2 inches of rain will be likely from
this system.

Post frontal passage will bring a cooler start to the new week.
Afternoon highs will range from the upper 40s in the northwest to
lower 60s in the southeast and overnight lows are expected to drop
to the upper 20s and lower 30s. Cold overnight lows could lead to
a widespread freeze Monday and Tuesday morning. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

A mix of conditions were observed at 1730Z as the morning showers
have moved to ne MS but additional SHRA/TSRA will move back across
the area from the west through 05Z. IFR/LIFR conds are expected
to redevelop area and prevail areawide through 09Z. After 09Z
cigs wl gradually improve to MVFR from the west but MVFR cigs wl
prevail through the end of the TAF period. A gusty s-se wind to
20kts is expected this aftn but wl shift to the nw and be gusty
20-22kts tonight as a cold front moves across the region. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       40  51  35  62 /  70   0   0  10
Meridian      43  55  33  61 /  80   0   0  10
Vicksburg     39  49  35  60 /  40   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   48  61  38  66 /  80   0   0  20
Natchez       42  52  38  63 /  60   0   0  20
Greenville    34  44  31  54 /  20   0   0  10
Greenwood     36  47  32  58 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ019-025>057-059-
     060.

LA...Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

LP/SW/22

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
937 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 AM     Flood            2 SSW Chester           33.34N 89.25W
02/12/2025                   Choctaw            MS   Trained Spotter

            Stewart road closed due to high water from
            South Union Road to Chester Mills Road due
            to swelling of Besa Chitto Creek.

&&

LP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
125 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 PM     Flood            6 ENE Huntsville        33.38N 89.36W
02/12/2025                   Choctaw            MS   Trained Spotter

            Creek swelling resulted in high water road
            closure along Henderson road.

&&

LDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
305 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

MSZ049-055-056-122200-
Smith MS-Rankin MS-Simpson MS-
305 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN...
NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON AND NORTHWESTERN SMITH COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
CST...

At 305 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
D'Lo, or over Mendenhall, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Johns, Cato, and Puckett around 310 PM CST.
  White Oak around 315 PM CST.
  Polkville around 325 PM CST.
  Burns around 335 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for central
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3189 8994 3198 9003 3223 8982 3223 8973
      3222 8973 3222 8939
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 226DEG 33KT 3198 8992

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

86