Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Tonight and Thursday: Similar to Tuesday afternoon, local radars
were lit up with scattered to numerous coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. The storms are slow moving and have had rainfall
rates in excess of two inches per hour over east Mississippi. The
current activity will see a distinct diurnal trend and slowly
dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. However, convection will
be prolonged this evening over our western zones as activity over
east Texas and western louisiana move into our CWA before
dissipating. This convective activity to our west was being driven
by a shortwave as seen on satellite imagery from northwest Arkansas
through the ArkLaTex and over the northern Gulf. This shortwave is
progged to continue weakening the farther east it tracks. Otherwise,
there will be little change in the sensible weather through Thursday
as compared to today. Tonight patchy fog, some possibly dense in the
areas that receive additional significant rainfall, will develop
towards sunrise along with stratus as our warm moist airmass
persists over the region. This will lead to warmer than normal
morning lows again. Daytime heating will lead to the redevelopment
of at least scattered coverage of mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Although the potential for severe weather is expected
to remain low, a few storms may produce strong wind gusts, small
hail and locally heavy downpours. Despite the rain chances and
associated cloud cover, temperatures will top out warmer than normal
Thursday afternoon. /22/

Thursday Night through Sunday...

Areas along and north of I-20 will still see lingering scattered
showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening as the weak cold front
continues to stall over portions of northern MS. Areas along and
north of the Hwy 82 corridor could see slightly higher PoPs (with
rain chances around 50%). Elsewhere, areas south of I-20 will be
clear under mostly cloudy skies through Thursday night into early
Friday morning. Showers and storms chances will begin to shift south
across our CWA by daybreak Friday. Similar to the previous day,
limited southerly moisture flow along with afternoon temperatures
forecasted to peak in the mid to upper 80s will allow for several
strong storms to occur. A few isolated severe storms cannot be ruled
out. Any strong/isolated severe storms that do manage to develop
heading into Friday afternoon will be short-lived. With that in
mind, this general pattern of afternoon thunderstorm activity
followed by a transition to scattered evening/nighttime showers will
persist through the weekend.

Rain chances will come to an end Saturday evening as global guidance
shows the aforementioned pushing south across our CWA. Sunday
morning looks to be generally quiet given a little break from the
rain across much of our forecast area. Portions of north, and
northeast MS could see a few scattered showers and storms Sunday
afternoon.

Monday through Next Week Wednesday...

Quiet weather conditions will persist heading into the new work week
as a 1024mb sfc high hovering over the Great Lakes Region shifts
southeastward towards the east CONUS with the associated weak cold
front continuing its southward track towards the Gulf. A shortwave
trough axis over east Texas will being to push eastward across the
southeast CONUS by the mid-week which will help reintroduce shower
and thunderstorm redevelopment across our across our northern
forecast zones including portions of southeast AR and portions of
northeast LA. Scattered showers and storms will start to become
widespread Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances will begin to decrease
in coverage looking ahead into Wednesday evening with low/mid PoP
chances (between 30-40%) mainly for areas along and north of I-20.
Rain chances will continue heading intO Thursday. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

TAF sites improved to VFR during the previous hour but scattered
SHRA/TSRA have developed across the south and east. This
convection wl expand through the aftn and result in lower flying
conditions. The SHRA/TSRA wl gradually dissipate this evening and
VFR conditions are expected until after 08Z when MVFR cigs wl
begin developing and lowering to IFR. IFR cigs wl prevail at most
TAF sites until after 15Z and then improve to VFR areawide again
by the end of the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  83  65  86 /  40  40  20  40
Meridian      62  84  62  86 /  20  40  20  40
Vicksburg     65  83  66  84 /  60  50  20  40
Hattiesburg   65  86  65  87 /  20  30  10  20
Natchez       64  82  66  84 /  70  50  10  40
Greenville    65  80  67  83 /  30  50  30  60
Greenwood     65  82  66  83 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

22/CR/22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

MSZ046-052-231815-
Kemper MS-Lauderdale MS-
1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN KEMPER AND
NORTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM CDT...

At 1231 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tamola, or 13 miles southeast of De Kalb, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Porterville and Tamola around 1235 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 8839 3252 8840 3250 8856 3267 8863
      3275 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 256DEG 21KT 3261 8850

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
134 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

MSZ049-055-056-231930-
Smith MS-Rankin MS-Simpson MS-
134 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN...SIMPSON
AND WESTERN SMITH COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

At 133 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shivers, or 10 miles southwest of Mendenhall, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pinola and Mendenhall around 140 PM CDT.
  D'Lo around 145 PM CDT.
  Braxton and Sanatorium around 150 PM CDT.
  Cato and Martinville around 200 PM CDT.
  Piney Woods around 205 PM CDT.
  Puckett around 210 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3178 9008 3214 9003 3215 8963 3178 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 199DEG 20KT 3183 8995

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
150 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

MSZ048-049-054-055-231945-
Copiah MS-Hinds MS-Rankin MS-Simpson MS-
150 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN...WESTERN
SIMPSON...SOUTH CENTRAL HINDS AND NORTHEASTERN COPIAH COUNTIES
THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 150 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Georgetown, or 10 miles east of Hazlehurst, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hopewell, Union, and Georgetown around 155 PM CDT.
  Harrisville around 205 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3177 9008 3180 9037 3215 9030 3214 9003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 203DEG 12KT 3188 9023

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
153 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

MSZ031-033-039-046-231945-
Kemper MS-Lowndes MS-Oktibbeha MS-Noxubee MS-
153 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NOXUBEE...NORTHEASTERN KEMPER...
SOUTHEASTERN OKTIBBEHA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWNDES COUNTIES THROUGH 245
PM CDT...

At 152 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Paulette to Gholson. Movement was north at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Macon and Mashulaville around 205 PM CDT.
  Prairie Point around 210 PM CDT.
  Deerbrook around 220 PM CDT.
  Brooksville around 225 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 8837 3281 8877 3302 8881 3326 8881
      3332 8883 3331 8858 3332 8830
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 166DEG 25KT 3297 8841 3292 8874

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CR

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