River Flood Warning 18, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
551 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Tonight:

Storms exit the area late this evening from west to east with
cooler air moving in behind. This will result in a night with lows
across the area in the 30s for most north of I-20 and 40s to the
south. Freezing temperatures are possible in southeast Arkansas.

Through mid week next week:

Otherwise, ongoing forecast thinking remains unchanged and the
previous extended forecast is attached below, with the next storm
threat anticipated on Saturday when a significant severe weather
event is possible. An "Enhanced" (3 out of 5) risk for severe
weather remains valid for much of the area on Saturday. /86/

Previous Discussion:

Thursday through Tuesday:

Surface ridging will provide a brief break from the rainfall
Thursday and Friday as it traverses over the central CONUS.
Southerly flow will help Gulf moisture return to the region and
bring afternoon temps to the lower 70s to near 80 degrees by
Saturday.

Although warm temps are expected Saturday, rain will also return
as well as an upper-lvl trough progresses east, pushing a cold
front into the area. With mid-60 dewpoints, sufficient shear and
instability in place, strong to severe storms will be possible.
Continue to check back for updates as this system is several days
away. Depending on rainfall amounts from the next couple of days,
flooding could be possible with this system as soils will be
saturated and additional 1-2 inches of rain will be likely from
this system.

Post frontal passage will bring a cooler start to the new week.
Afternoon highs will range from the upper 40s in the northwest to
lower 60s in the southeast and overnight lows are expected to drop
to the upper 20s and lower 30s. Cold overnight lows could lead to
a widespread freeze Monday and Tuesday morning. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

A mix of conditions were observed at 2330Z with VFR conds still
over se MS but SHRA/TSRAs will move across se MS through 03Z. The
back edge of the SHRA/TSRA has cleared HEZ-GLH-GWO. Otherwise,
IFR/LIFR conds are expected to prevail through 09Z. After 09Z
cigs wl gradually improve to MVFR from the west but wl take until
after 21Z to become VFR areawide. A gusty s-se wind to 20kts wl
shift to the nw and be gusty 20-22kts tonight as a cold front
moves across the region. This gusty nw wind will continue Thu
before subsiding by the end of the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       40  51  35  62 / 100   0   0  10
Meridian      43  55  33  61 / 100   0   0  10
Vicksburg     39  49  35  60 /  50   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   48  61  38  66 / 100   0   0  20
Natchez       42  52  38  63 /  50   0   0  20
Greenville    34  44  31  54 /  20   0   0  10
Greenwood     36  47  32  58 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 8 PM CST this evening for MSZ028>033-037>039-
     043>046-048>057-059-060.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

/LP/22

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
523 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     Tornado          3 ENE Columbia          31.27N 89.78W
02/12/2025                   Marion             MS   Emergency Mngr

            Lakeview subdivision has damage and trees
            down. A couple of homes in the area as well
            as businesses received damage.

&&

DB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
612 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Center Ridge       31.97N 89.51W
02/12/2025                   Smith              MS   Public

            Tree down across cr 90.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
613 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNE Mize              31.91N 89.53W
02/12/2025                   Smith              MS   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on cr 79.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
630 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Seminary           31.58N 89.53W
02/12/2025                   Covington          MS   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down off of Cothren Road and Highway
            49. Possible tornado.

&&

DB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
644 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Seminary            31.56N 89.55W
02/12/2025                   Covington          MS   Broadcast Media

            Trees down along Cold Springs Rd, possible
            tornado.

&&

CE

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