Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The forecast reasoning is generally on track for the overnight
into Monday morning concerning a convective system expected to
move across the forecast area. Considerable convective rainfall
may develop well ahead of the system in the very moist and
buoyant airmass per recent CAM guidance consensus, but any
organized severe threat continues to correlate with our latest
severe weather timing graphic for the early to mid morning hours.
/EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 513 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Through Monday...

A well-organized convective complex is expected to develop overnight
as the result of the upscale growth of numerous strong to severe
storms across the Southern Plains this evening. This system will
reach its peak intensity upstream of our area and tracking eastward.
By the time it reaches our CWA, likely beginning in the predawn
hours Monday, severe weather potential will have diminished somewhat
compared to what the Moderate Risk area to our west will have likely
seen. However, the remains of this energy will still allow for a few
cells or bowing segments to produce damaging winds and some hail as
the convective complex interacts with an airmass that will be
moderately unstable (~2000-3000 SBCAPE), somewhat uncommon for the
5am-9am timeframe which typically sees the daily minimum in terms of
diurnally driven thermodynamic instability. Timing on the severe
weather appears most likely Monday morning (between 2-10AM west to
east), and given the trend in timing lately don't be surprised if
the primary window for the most intense storms ends up being closer
to between 5am and 1pm Monday. Some chance for redevelopment is
possible in the evening tomorrow should the early morning activity
clear out in time for a substantial diurnal upward temperature swing
prior to dusk. Any stronger cores with this activity will likely be
both transient and isolated, dissipating during the evening. /OAJ/86/

No changes to the long term:

Tuesday through the weekend...

Global guidance continues to show a cold front shifting southward
and stalling across the southeastern CONUS heading into Tuesday.
This front will provide some relief from the triple digit heat index
readings over much of our forecast area. This front will also keep
higher chances of showers and t-storms around for the rest of the
period/area for the afternoon hours and subsequently peter off after
sunset. /CR/OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

VFR conditions prevail across most of the area early this morning
outside of festering SHRA and TS in the HBG area. Later this
morning, convection is expected to spread eastward into the area
closer to daybreak, with potential for wind gusts to 50 kt. Ahead
of these storms, MVFR stratus is expected to develop over a good
chunk of the region. Clouds may linger behind the storms, but
ceilings are expected to generally rise with VFR conditions
returning by the afternoon in most areas. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  69  86  67 /  80  50  50  20
Meridian      86  67  86  65 /  90  60  60  20
Vicksburg     86  70  86  68 /  70  40  50  10
Hattiesburg   93  72  89  70 /  80  70  80  30
Natchez       88  70  84  68 /  70  60  70  20
Greenville    83  67  85  66 /  60  20  10   0
Greenwood     83  66  86  65 /  70  20  20   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

EC/CR/OAJ/DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1023 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

MSZ064>066-073-074-090430-
Jones MS-Jefferson Davis MS-Covington MS-Lamar MS-Forrest MS-
1023 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN FORREST...SOUTHEASTERN
COVINGTON...NORTHERN LAMAR...SOUTHWESTERN JONES AND SOUTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM CDT...

At 1023 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sumrall, or 12 miles northwest of West Hattiesburg, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hattiesburg, Rawls Springs, and Sanford around 1030 PM CDT.
  West Hattiesburg and Eastabuchie around 1040 PM CDT.
  Moselle around 1045 PM CDT.
  Petal around 1050 PM CDT.
  Macedonia around 1055 PM CDT.
  Sunrise around 1100 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3134 8964 3152 8963 3155 8915 3130 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0323Z 270DEG 25KT 3143 8955

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1059 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

MSZ066-090500-
Jones MS-
1059 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL JONES COUNTY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1059 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moselle, or near Ellisville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Laurel and Ellisville around 1105 PM CDT.
  Tuckers Crossing around 1110 PM CDT.
  Mill Creek around 1130 PM CDT.
  Sandersville around 1135 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3155 8940 3162 8940 3182 8899 3183 8894
      3158 8894 3144 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 243DEG 27KT 3156 8931

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EC