Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
705 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025
Rest of today into tonight...

Main adjustments were to add an Enhanced risk into the Hwy 82
corridor, with main threats of damaging winds in excess of 70mph and
hail quarter to half dollar size. In addition, a flash flood risk is
possible tomorrow on Monday northwest of the Natchez Trace
(northwest Delta to MS River corridor), with continued low end
Marginal severe risk as well. Previous morning update through
tonight is on track and below.

Another round of showers & storm activity, with organized complex,
is likely late this afternoon to evening. Morning upper air & sfc
analysis & mesoanalysis indicates the region on the northern
periphery of ridging over the Gulf of Mexico with stalled sfc
boundary situated across north-central portions of the area. Low-
level moist advection of 340-360K sfc Theta E & >340K Theta E at 925-
850mb layer is aiding in favorable thermodynamics, with nearly +2500-
3500 J/kg ML/SBCAPE & >1000 J/kg of DCAPE. Perturbed westerly flow
at 500mb is aiding in subtle shortwave energy, which is inducing
early morning convective development across the Ozarks. This is
progged to sink southward through the day & move either an organized
convective complex or outflow/cold pool boundary into the Hwy 82
corridor around peak insolation time. With nearly 25-35kts of deep
layer shear in the 0-6km layer, any storms that initiate prior or
along a morning convective outflow should grow upscale and propagate
southward. The only caveat is low-level bulk shear vectors are
southwesterly, which could decrease balance of cold pools &
southward extent of the highest severe threat. However, similar to
yesterday, this seems to be not enough to hinder strong to severe
activity propagation. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) earlier
expanded the Slight/Marginal risks southward. In addition, there are
enough trends in HREF probs of convective wind gusts & severe
probabilities in HREF/CSU machine learning guidance to support
locally adding in the Interstate 20 corridor into this, while the
Highway 84 corridor was added into a Marginal risk. Overall,
thinking is the same for hazards: 60-70mph winds, quarter size hail
& a tornado can't be ruled out (mainly focused in the Hwy 82
corridor). Timing is mainly after 4-5PM in the extreme northwest
Delta, with some earlier diurnal development possible, & propagating
southward into the I-20 corridor around 8-10PM & some persisting
through midnight as far south as Hwy 84. Confidence south of I-20 is
lower but a Marginal fits for some isolated strong to severe
activity. For sensible forecast elements, highs today & lows
tonight, will be seasonably warm, some 5-10 degrees above (highs of

Monday through Saturday...no big changes to the extended forecast.
Still looking for a disturbance to pass through the region nearly
everyday this week, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Upper
level disturbances may bring two rounds early Monday for the
northern half of the area. Guidance suggests a stalled front,
maybe some left over outflow boundaries in the afternoon will
support thunderstorms across the south/southeast into the evening.
Another wave on Wednesday rides the stalled boundary across the
southern portions of the area, for now it looks like general
thunderstorms. Thursday may see some strong storms developing
along a cold front moving through the area. The boundary passes
in late afternoon with an increasing LLJ. Storms linger into
Friday, as the boundary moves out. Cooler air quickly settles in
behind it. The GFS has a weak boundary/clouds passing on Saturday,
but no rain. Looking for high pressure to settle in for the
weekend and maintain into the following week. There are some
subtle differences in the temperatures for next weekend, MEX
guidance is cooler, especially with drier air and clear skies.
Expect near normal temperatures through the week. It will be
interesting to see if near 60 lows and highs near 80 Friday/Saturday
will develop. /07/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Numerous TSRA wl affect the northern and cntrl TAF sites through
06Z as a line of TSRA sags south through the area. This will bring
reduced flying conditions but away from the TSRA VFR conditions
wl prevail through 09Z. After 09Z MVFR/IFR cigs wl begin to
develop and then prevail until after 15Z before improving. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail Mon aftn but scattered to
numerous TSRA are expected over the northern half of the area
again. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  89  72  86 /  30  60  30  80
Meridian      68  90  70  88 /  40  70  30  80
Vicksburg     71  88  72  83 /  30  60  30  80
Hattiesburg   73  93  74  91 /  20  40  10  60
Natchez       71  88  72  84 /  20  40  20  70
Greenville    70  82  70  80 /  70  80  70  80
Greenwood     70  85  70  81 /  70  90  70  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

/07/22

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
759 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Schlater                33.64N 90.35W
05/25/2025                   Leflore            MS   Public

            Numerous trees down.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
800 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Greenwood               33.52N 90.19W
05/25/2025                   Leflore            MS   Public

            Numerous trees down.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
825 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Eskridge          33.56N 89.70W
05/25/2025                   Montgomery         MS   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement reported numerous trees down
            between Winona and Duck Hill.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
836 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Anguilla                32.98N 90.83W
05/25/2025                   Sharkey            MS   Emergency Mngr

            Power line down on Ann Dr.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
838 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSW Steens            33.52N 88.34W
05/25/2025                   Lowndes            MS   Emergency Mngr

            Tree and power lines down at Hwy 50 and
            Tabernacle Rd.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
842 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Chester            33.35N 89.25W
05/25/2025                   Choctaw            MS   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement reported numerous trees and
            powerlines down across Choctaw county.

&&

CR