Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Tonight and Thursday: Similar to Tuesday afternoon, local radars
were lit up with scattered to numerous coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. The storms are slow moving and have had rainfall
rates in excess of two inches per hour over east Mississippi. The
current activity will see a distinct diurnal trend and slowly
dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. However, convection will
be prolonged this evening over our western zones as activity over
east Texas and western louisiana move into our CWA before
dissipating. This convective activity to our west was being driven
by a shortwave as seen on satellite imagery from northwest Arkansas
through the ArkLaTex and over the northern Gulf. This shortwave is
progged to continue weakening the farther east it tracks. Otherwise,
there will be little change in the sensible weather through Thursday
as compared to today. Tonight patchy fog, some possibly dense in the
areas that receive additional significant rainfall, will develop
towards sunrise along with stratus as our warm moist airmass
persists over the region. This will lead to warmer than normal
morning lows again. Daytime heating will lead to the redevelopment
of at least scattered coverage of mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Although the potential for severe weather is expected
to remain low, a few storms may produce strong wind gusts, small
hail and locally heavy downpours. Despite the rain chances and
associated cloud cover, temperatures will top out warmer than normal
Thursday afternoon. /22/

Thursday Night through Sunday...

Areas along and north of I-20 will still see lingering scattered
showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening as the weak cold front
continues to stall over portions of northern MS. Areas along and
north of the Hwy 82 corridor could see slightly higher PoPs (with
rain chances around 50%). Elsewhere, areas south of I-20 will be
clear under mostly cloudy skies through Thursday night into early
Friday morning. Showers and storms chances will begin to shift south
across our CWA by daybreak Friday. Similar to the previous day,
limited southerly moisture flow along with afternoon temperatures
forecasted to peak in the mid to upper 80s will allow for several
strong storms to occur. A few isolated severe storms cannot be ruled
out. Any strong/isolated severe storms that do manage to develop
heading into Friday afternoon will be short-lived. With that in
mind, this general pattern of afternoon thunderstorm activity
followed by a transition to scattered evening/nighttime showers will
persist through the weekend.

Rain chances will come to an end Saturday evening as global guidance
shows the aforementioned pushing south across our CWA. Sunday
morning looks to be generally quiet given a little break from the
rain across much of our forecast area. Portions of north, and
northeast MS could see a few scattered showers and storms Sunday
afternoon.

Monday through Next Week Wednesday...

Quiet weather conditions will persist heading into the new work week
as a 1024mb sfc high hovering over the Great Lakes Region shifts
southeastward towards the east CONUS with the associated weak cold
front continuing its southward track towards the Gulf. A shortwave
trough axis over east Texas will being to push eastward across the
southeast CONUS by the mid-week which will help reintroduce shower
and thunderstorm redevelopment across our across our northern
forecast zones including portions of southeast AR and portions of
northeast LA. Scattered showers and storms will start to become
widespread Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances will begin to decrease
in coverage looking ahead into Wednesday evening with low/mid PoP
chances (between 30-40%) mainly for areas along and north of I-20.
Rain chances will continue heading intO Thursday. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

TAF sites improved to VFR during the previous hour but scattered
SHRA/TSRA have developed across the south and east. This
convection wl expand through the aftn and result in lower flying
conditions. The SHRA/TSRA wl gradually dissipate this evening and
VFR conditions are expected until after 08Z when MVFR cigs wl
begin developing and lowering to IFR. IFR cigs wl prevail at most
TAF sites until after 15Z and then improve to VFR areawide again
by the end of the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  83  65  86 /  40  40  20  40
Meridian      62  84  62  86 /  20  40  20  40
Vicksburg     65  83  66  84 /  60  50  20  40
Hattiesburg   65  86  65  87 /  20  30  10  20
Natchez       64  82  66  84 /  70  50  10  40
Greenville    65  80  67  83 /  30  50  30  60
Greenwood     65  82  66  83 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

22/CR/22