Small Craft Advisory 29, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
319 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next few
  hours and race east-northeast.

- All severe hazards are expected, including damaging winds,
  large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rain. The risk is greatest
  along and south of the US 24 corridor.

- Additional rain this weekend warrants a flood watch for a
  portion of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The table is set for severe thunderstorms to develop over the
next several hours. The warm front is now surging toward the US 24
corridor. The low-level surface flow is veering in response and
instability is ballooning toward 1000 j/kg MUCAPE south of the
front. This warm sector will be the primary area of interest
for storm initiation over the next few of hours (this warm
sector extends west into Illinois). Storms along or very near
the warm front will be most at risk for producing tornadoes,
along with any discrete storms in the warm sector. These
discrete storms can also produce large hail (1.5" hail was
observed this morning). Low-level helicity values of 500 m2/s2
are very accommodating to tornadoes while LCLs near 1000m are a
little high, but sufficient. Forecast soundings ahead of any
suspected storms exhibits a subtle cap, but one that will be
quickly overcome in this robust environment. Storms are
anticipated to congeal into a line as the evening wears on,
posing a significant risk of damaging wind gusts along with
embedded, short-track tornadoes.

The heavy rain risk continues amid our anomalously moist air mass.
Thunderstorms this morning were efficient rain producers with a
large portion of the forecast area picking up a radar-estimated 1 to
1.5 inches in a short amount of time. Rivers have responded
accordingly and several river flood warnings are in effect.
Additional rain is expected Friday through the weekend,
warranting a flood watch for a portion of the forecast area
where 3 to 4 inches of additional rain is anticipated tonight
through Sunday morning.

Drying out overnight as the low wraps up over the upper Great Lakes
and the dry slot moves overhead. Remaining breezy, however,
especially in the vicinity of a secondary cold front that approaches
Thursday afternoon. Can't rule out some lake effect showers, but
westerly flow may be too strong and the fetch to narrow to be
effective. This cold front gets shunted north as an influx of Gulf
moisture and WAA races in. A thermal gradient sets up over the Ohio
River Valley through the weekend (remarkable flooding anticipated in
some areas) and is the focus for numerous rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. Our far southern Counties (Jay IN to Allen OH) faces
a glancing blow of showers and storms Thursday night. Probabilities
are higher through Friday, especially south of US 30, as this
frontal boundary lifts north. Rain on Friday through the weekend
will worsen any ongoing river or areal flooding.

A sharp low pressure centered races in Monday bringing notably
colder air overhead and the chance for rain and snow showers.
Mercifully, drying out in the days thereafter with cold conditions
easing by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue to periodically move over SBN
with reduced visibility and lower ceilings. FWA has been dry for
the past few hours, but showers look poised to move back in
shortly, with thunderstorms expected later this afternoon. The
warm front has been slow to make its way north today, and so
winds are still out of the E/SE. They are still expected to
shift south this evening and then southwesterly tonight as the
front lifts up and is then followed by the cold front. Winds
could gust as high as 30 kts, and probably higher in thunderstorms.
Showers and storms are forecast to move away from the terminals
around 07Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ009-017-018-020-
     022>027-032>034.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
     016-024-025.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Cobb

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