Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
149 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. All
  hazards possible.

- A few lingering showers and non-severe storms tonight into
  Thursday morning.

- Hot and humid conditions developing this weekend into early
  next week. Afternoon heat indices around 100 degrees, mainly
  Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Arcing line segments of convection will track through the area
this afternoon (3-9pm EDT) as a well defined MCV and associated
sfc reflection lift east-northeast into the lower Great Lakes
from west-central IL. Embedded strong to severe supercells and
bowing segments remain likely given favorable shear and
instability profiles. MLCAPE values likely ranging from
1500-3000 j/kg from north to south by this time, while low-mid
level southwest flow also ramps up with favorable deep layer
shear pushing 40 knots plus. All hazards are on the table with
wind damage remaining the most likely hazard given the strong
forcing, though SPC tornado chances have increased given
increased 0-3 km shear and SRH with slight backing noted
upstream in METARS near the sfc low track. Locally heavy
rainfall and large hail also remain a concern.

Chances for scattered showers and a few non-severe storms then
continue tonight into Thursday morning, especially northern
zones as the low center tracks through the Great Lakes through
the Great Lakes. Otherwise, synoptic scale gusts into the 35-45
mph will be possible in wake of MCV late this afternoon into
this evening into areas mainly south of the Michigan state line.

Heat wave remains on target for this weekend into early next
week as an upper level ridge expands over the region. Headline
worthy (100F plus) PM heat indices possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

We are monitoring storm development in Illinois at this time as
these storms move towards our forecast area. A line (or multiple
clusters) of strong to severe storms is expected to move west to
east across our forecast area between 19Z to 01Z tonight. The
primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts with a few tornadoes
possible too (especially in northern Indiana south of US 30).
Greatest chances for severe wind gusts at KSBN will be between
20-22Z and at KFWA between 21-23Z this evening. Expect MVFR to
IFR visibilities and ceilings as the storms move through.
Southwesterly winds will be gusty even before storms move
through at 20-25kts. Conditions dry out overnight and into the
day Thursday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
314 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-104-116-203-204-216-
MIZ078>080-191915-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Eastern St. Joseph IN-
Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN-
Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-
314 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 /214 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025/

...TORNADO WATCH 434 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hot temperatures are expected Saturday through Tuesday. Afternoon
heat index values will rise to between 100 and 105 at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed this afternoon.

MIZ081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-191915-
Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-
Allen OH-
314 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Michigan and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms, potentially severe, are likely from late afternoon
into early this evening. All hazards possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hot temperatures are expected Saturday through Tuesday. Afternoon
heat index values will rise to between 100 and 105 at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

INZ103-MIZ177-277-191915-
Northern La Porte-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
314 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 /214 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025/

...TORNADO WATCH 434 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a moderate swim risk on Thursday for Lake Michigan beaches.

Hot temperatures are expected Saturday through Tuesday. Afternoon
heat index values will rise to between 100 and 105 at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed this afternoon.

LMZ043-046-191915-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
314 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...TORNADO WATCH 434 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time