Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
758 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance for storms this evening, mainly between 7pm
  and 10pm EDT. A few thunderstorms could become severe with
  damaging winds the primary threat, mainly south of US 24.

- Cooler and breezy on Saturday.

- Periodic rain chances return next week, mainly Tuesday through
  Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Fairly complicated set up here in the short term for here in
northern Indiana. Which is probably not so much for forecasters
for locations across the High Plains in which these very dry
low level convective events are more commonplace. We have the
synoptic winds from the southwest being amplified by convective
outflows. These winds have then been kicking up dust/dirt back
over central IL and has pushed this dust into northern IN with
even some additional dust being added locally. Did address the
wind/dust potential initially with an SPS but with the increase
in wind speeds/dust decided to go with a combination of Severe
Thunderstorm warnings for the winds and a blowing dust advisory
for of course the dust. This is one event that will stand out in
the future for sure.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

A shortwave, 70-80 kt 500 mb jet, and an attendant cold front track
through this evening into the early overnight through the base of an
Upper Midwest upper low. The associated shot of deeper ascent and
some low level moisture return with a developing low level jet
should bring a period of scattered showers/storms to most of the
area this evening. Still cannot rule out a few strong to severe
storms, mainly south of US 24, as shear profiles are favorable
for organized convection. Instability is the limiting factor
however with MLCIN and dry air to overcome, though incoming
height falls/cooling aloft, and some last minute low level
theta-e advection, should eventually allow updrafts to break the
cap with MLCAPE potentially surging into the 1000-1500 j/kg
range (highest southeast of US 24). High DCAPE with steep 0-3km
lapse rates favor a downburst wind threat if any multicell
clusters/lines emerge. Overall confidence in anything more
than isolated strong to severe cells is low, with greater probs
for severe storms off to the south near the primary
moisture/instability axis.

Cold advection on the southern fringes of a stacked low moving east
through the Great Lakes region will provide significantly cooler and
breezy conditions post-frontal later tonight into Saturday. Cyclonic
flow around the low will also allow stratocu to build in for a time,
especially north of US 30 where non zero chances for a rogue
sprinkle/shower will exist. Sunday is definitely the preferred
weekend day weather-wise as high pressure nudges in from the north
with sunshine, lighter winds and slightly warmer temps.

Next week continues to look wet at times as an upper low cuts off
and slowly tracks east through the Central US and Great Lakes. The
greatest chances for rain are the Tuesday through Thursday periods,
with temperatures generally below average for mid-late May.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 757 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Complicated TAF period at least in the short term with southerly
gusty winds being amplified by thunderstorm outflows and also
kicking up dust and locally dropping vsbys due to the blowing
dust. This will be expected through 03z Sat for KSBN and 04z
KFWA. Will continue to monitor as this may take a bit longer to
push through. Wind gusts up to 35 kts expected with slightly
higher gusts possible at times through 04z Sat. South to southwesterly
Winds back to more westerly late in the period and slightly
decrease through the remainder of the TAF period. Gusts still
expected around 25 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Blowing Dust Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-
     104-116-203-204-216.
OH...Blowing Dust Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Blowing Dust Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Andersen
UPDATE...Andersen

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
218 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-171830-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
218 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 /118 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance for storms this evening, mainly between 7pm and
10pm EDT. A few thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds
the primary threat, mainly south of US 24.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LMZ043-046-171830-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
218 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
714 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     Lightning        1 NNW Dunkirk           40.76N 86.40W
05/16/2025                   Cass               IN   Emergency Mngr

            Lightning strike causes structure fire in
            1500 block of Delaware Rd.

0643 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Walton             40.65N 86.27W
05/16/2025                   Cass               IN   Emergency Mngr

            Large tree down onto road along County Road
            E 800 S.

0645 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Logansport         40.74N 86.37W
05/16/2025                   Cass               IN   Emergency Mngr

            Tree onto house on Clinton St, near
            Burlington Ave.

0646 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Dunkirk             40.72N 86.39W
05/16/2025                   Cass               IN   Public

            Power poles leaning on W Country Road 300 S,
            near S County Road 125 W.

0648 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Walton            40.63N 86.26W
05/16/2025                   Cass               IN   Emergency Mngr

            Large tree and power line down in roadway on
            6000 block of CR E 90 S.

0648 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Lake Cicott         40.76N 86.50W
05/16/2025                   Cass               IN   Emergency Mngr

            Power lines reported down in the 6700 block
            of West US 24.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
818 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Winona Lake             41.22N 85.81W
05/16/2025                   Kosciusko          IN   NWS Employee

            NWS employee reports tree branches down over
            southeast Warsaw in Kosciusko County
            Indiana. Estimated winds around 50 mph.

&&

JA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
819 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Rome City               41.49N 85.35W
05/16/2025  M57 MPH          Noble              IN   Trained Spotter

0655 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Monticello              40.75N 86.76W
05/16/2025                   White              IN   Emergency Mngr

            White County has several trees and poles
            down. Reports of damage to houses and
            buildings. Church in Reynolds lost its
            steeple. Tree in front room of a house,
            siding blown off a house in Reynolds, tree
            on car in Monticello, tree on front porch.
            Possible damage to a hog barn in Reynolds.

0655 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Monticello              40.75N 86.76W
05/16/2025                   White              IN   Public

            Pictures on social media of trees down in
            town.

0729 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Fairmount               40.42N 85.65W
05/16/2025                   Grant              IN   Trained Spotter

            Reports of power lines down.

0733 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Andrews                 40.86N 85.60W
05/16/2025                   Huntington         IN   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple reports of trees down in Andrews.

0734 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Winona Lake        41.24N 85.78W
05/16/2025                   Kosciusko          IN   Emergency Mngr

            Tree and power lines down near CR 300 E and
            Old US 30.

0735 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE North Manchester   41.01N 85.77W
05/16/2025                   Wabash             IN   Trained Spotter

            The top part of a mature oak tree (estimated
            28-36 inches in width) fell and hit a house,
            causing significant damage to the structure
            and its roof. No injuries.

0741 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Rochester               41.06N 86.20W
05/16/2025                   Fulton             IN   Trained Spotter

            Reports of trees down.

0746 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Columbia City           41.16N 85.48W
05/16/2025                   Whitley            IN   Amateur Radio

            Reports of trees down in Columbia City.

0750 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Jonesboro               40.48N 85.63W
05/16/2025                   Grant              IN   Public

            Tree down blocking Main Street.

0758 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSE Blue Lake         41.22N 85.36W
05/16/2025                   Whitley            IN   Amateur Radio

            Trees down.

0735 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Culver                  41.22N 86.42W
05/16/2025                   Marshall           IN   Emergency Mngr

            Reports of trees down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
821 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WNW Rochester         41.07N 86.24W
05/16/2025                   Fulton             IN   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported a couple of trees
            down and several branches 2 to 3 inches in
            diameter downed by winds estimated to be 50-
            60 mph west of Rochester in Fulton County,
            Indiana.

&&

JA

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
834 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Claypool                41.13N 85.88W
05/16/2025                   Kosciusko          IN   Amateur Radio

            Tree down on S Clay St at Calhoon St.

0754 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSE James Lake        41.31N 85.72W
05/16/2025                   Kosciusko          IN   NWS Employee

            Snapped pear tree and another tree uprooted.

&&