Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
339 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing Strong to severe storms into early this morning;
  especially west of I-69. More storms are also possible late
  today into the evening. Damaging wind gusts are the primary
  threat for both periods.

- Unseasonably warm and windy conditions will prevail today ahead of
  a strong cold front.  Gusts up to 55 mph are expected.

- Rain mixed with or changing to snow is likely Sunday. A brief
  light accumulation is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Strong to severe storms over IL were moving rapidly east. Overall
timing of 2AM EDT to about 8AM EDT appears reasonable given the
latest radar, sfc obs and high res model trends. SPC has just
included all of our forecast area in a SVR watch until 9 EM EDT.
Marginally severe instability generally up to 1000 J/Kg, but
extremely high wind shear has been supported of wind gusts up to
70 mph. Given the rapidly moving and interacting elements along
with the high level of shear, tornados are also possible. The
situation will repeat itself late this afternoon into early
tonight mainly east of I-69 with the same type of environment
of modest CAPE and high wind shear.

Very cold air will spread over the area behind a strong cold
front tonight. Thermal profiles support rain changing to snow
with some type of a chance for brief accumulations on elevated

surfaces. It's hard to imagine snow accumulating where the high
temperature yesterday was 80 degrees. For now, left light snow
accumulations in the forecast.

A very active pattern is ahead this upcoming week as numerous short
waves, upper level disturbances and upper trof transverse the CONUS.
Some of these systems will be able to briefly tap into colder
air with the chance for snow returning Wednesday night and
Thursday. Highs will be mainly in the 40s Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Strong to severe storms over IL were moving rapidly east.
Adjusted time & impacts slightly based on radar, sfc obs and
high res model trends. There should be a fairly small window
with the passage of the showers and storms when gusts greater
than 40 knots are possible. More rain is expected late in the
TAF period as the upper level trof moves east. Low MVFR and
possibly IFR ceilings are expected.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
     116-203-204-216.
OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ078>081-177-
     277.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Skipper

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
150 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-160600-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
150 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 /1250 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SATURDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Windy and very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated
risk of field and brush fires Saturday. Strong to severe storms are
likely early Saturday morning and then possible again Saturday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed tonight into Saturday.

LMZ043-046-160600-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
150 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 40 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Strong to severe storms are likely early Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.