Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
717 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe storms are likely this evening,
  especially in the 7-11 PM EDT timeframe. Damaging wind gusts
  and isolated tornadoes are the main threats.

- Much colder tomorrow with highs near 40 degrees. Rain/snow mix
likely in the morning/early afternoon. Minor snow accumulations of
0.5" to 1" possible on elevated surfaces.

- Seasonable temperatures and an active weather pattern continue
with a few chances for rain over the weekend and into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A large area of low pressure can be seen on visible satellite
imagery and regional radar this afternoon. This low pressure system
is centered over northwest Missouri this afternoon and as it lifts
northward, the system's attendant surface cold front will sweep
through our forecast area tonight and bring chances for severe
weather. Upper level dynamics are favorable too as the left exit
region of a strong jet stream moves overhead this evening and a
strong 500 mb shortwave approaches as well. Scattered strong to
severe storms are expected to develop late this afternoon into the
evening. A few supercells may develop ahead of the cold front
initially (especially in Illinois and into western Indiana) but
the main storm structure expected in our forecast area today is
a broken line of thunderstorms. This is a high shear, low CAPE
setup today, with strong shear and marginal instability of about
500-1000 J/kg. Strong 0-6 km shear of 50 to 70 kts, ample 0-1
km shear of 30 to 40 kts, LCLs of 1000m, and 0-1 km SRH of up to
300 m2/s2 all favor damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes
as the main threats. A warm front lifted north of our area this
morning and clearing has been evident on visible satellite
imagery over the past few hours, which when combined with wind
gusts up to 30 kts, has led to temperatures in the mid to upper
60s this afternoon. This clearing - and being in the warm sector
- will aid in destabilizing the atmosphere. The only caveat to
today's severe weather chances is the approaching line of
showers in Illinois. Some of the hi-res model guidance has this
line of showers and some do not...the current thinking is that
these showers may dampen the favorable environment somewhat, but
to what degree is uncertain. Nevertheless, stay weather aware
late this afternoon and evening and have multiple ways to
receive warnings!

In typical spring fashion, temperatures will crash overnight post-
front and the weather will be drastically different tomorrow. As the
backside of the low pressure system moves through the area tomorrow,
a changeover to a rain/snow mix is expected. Temperatures will fall
about 30 degrees overnight, into the low 30s to near 40 by daybreak.
A rain/snow mix is expected, with snow moreso favored across
northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan where the coldest
temperatures will be found. Minor snow accumulations up to 1" will
be possible, mainly on the grass and on elevated surfaces. Strong
CAA and gusty northwest winds will keep temperatures locked in the
30s all day Thursday, with wind chills in the 20s.

Near normal to slightly cooler than normal temperatures are here to
stay for the next few days. There are chances for rain over the
weekend on both Saturday and Sunday. The active pattern looks to
continue for the end of March even into early April as multiple rain
chances appear possible next week and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 717 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A broken line of storms will impact the terminals during the
next 2-3 hours with brief IFR and gusty winds likely, especially
at KSBN. Anticipate a lull during the late evening with
wrap-around rain/snow and lower ceilings arriving late tonight.
Confidence in ceiling heights during this time is not high with
adjustments in either direction possible. Accumulating snow/IFR
possible at KSBN but much less likely at KFWA. Return to VFR
anticipated by late Thu afternoon.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...AGD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
331 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-201945-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
331 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025 /231 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this evening,
mainly from 7 to 11 PM EDT. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and a few
isolated tornadoes are the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-201945-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
331 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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