Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
715 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy today with gusts 35 to 45 mph, Wind Advisory in effect until
9pm.

- Numerous T-storms later this afternoon and evening, with a few
severe storms possible. Damaging winds are the primary threat,
though isolated tornadoes and severe hail are also possible.

- Becoming cooler, with rain and snow showers Thursday morning.

- More showers are expected at times this weekend and next week as
temperatures hover mostly around normal.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

The atmosphere out ahead of the approaching low in continuing to
develop parameters conducive to organized convective cells this
afternoon. This had led to widespread thunderstorm initiation over
central IL. Initially, the thought was the dry mid level air would
inhibit initial updraft growth leading to more of a discrete
convective mode, but observational analysis is showing very little
limitations with a the beginning formation of a QLCS. This is
expected to continue the surge of moisture pushes into central
Indiana over the next few hours.

VWP observations show low level veering quickly increasing as the
LLJ strengthens. This is aligning with the more aggressive CAMs like
the HRRR and FV3. This could allow for the more discrete cells out
in front of the main QLCS to become organized including the
potential for organized mesocyclones. These more discrete cells
within the drier mid-levels would also have the best chance of
producing severe hail. The hail threat is likely to diminish some as
the QLCS arrives.

As far as the QLCS, the bulk shear vector will be best aligned for
segments that are oriented slights west of north, and these segments
will be the most likely to produce damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes. Overall storm motion will generally be around 230 degrees
at about 50kt. This will become more westerly with time and as the
cold pool strengthens.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Current surface analysis and satellite observations show a strong
surface low centered near northwest Missouri with thunderstorms
developing ahead of an advancing cold front across Illinois. This
front will continue to push eastward towards central Indiana during
the afternoon. Moisture advection combined with additional diurnal
heating supports the development of numerous thunderstorms around
the 5-7pm timeframe. Severe storms are possible as strong deep-layer
wind shear and modest instability favor supercells capable of all
hazards. A Tornado Watch is in effect across west-central Indiana
through 10pm.

The greatest threats later this afternoon and into the evening are
damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, especially across west-central
Indiana. Forecast soundings show slightly backed surface flow beneath
a strong southwesterly LLJ promoting veering low-level hodographs.
This setup will lead to strong SRH around 200-300 (m^2/s^2) favoring
supercells and an increasing tornado threat. Steep 0-3km lapse rates
along with organized rotating updrafts also favors the potential for
damaging wind gusts. The hail threat is somewhat limited due to
modest instability, but severe hail is still possible with any
organized storms. The severe weather threat tapers off early tonight
once the aforementioned front shifts east.

PBL mixing into a strong LLJ overhead will continue to produce
strong wind gusts through this evening. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect through 9pm for the potential of southerly wind gusts up to
45 mph. Isolated higher non-thunderstorm wind gusts cannot be
completely ruled out. Despite PBL stabilization overnight, winds
remain elevated into Thursday with a strong pressure gradient in
place.

A lull in precipitation is expected tonight due to dry air filtering
in behind the front. However, rain quickly returns late tonight as
moisture wraps around the surface low. Model guidance suggest
precipitation remains mostly confined to areas near or north of I-70
where stronger low-level convergence should be. Colder air advection
on the backside of the low will likely allow light snow to mix in.
No accumulations are expected due to warm ground temperatures.

Isolated lake enhanced rain or snow showers may then continue
through the early afternoon hours before quiet weather conditions
return. Highs ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s combined with
breezy conditions will make it feel more like Winter on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

The long term period will see steadier and nearer to normal
temperatures than we've had the last could of weeks. This will be
paired with a couple of upper waves moving through that will bring
multiple chances of precipitation through next week.

Temperatures are forecasted to be pretty consistent through the
period with highs in the 50s each day and lows in the 30s. The
coldest night of the period will be Thursday morning with lows below
freezing.

The first round of precipitation will be Friday night, due an upper
wave extending south into the region. Central Indiana will have
minimal moisture and lift to work with while better precipitation
chances will be to the north. Likely only the northern half of the
forecast area will see light rain from this system, but at this time
confidence isn't high so have kept PoPs at slight chance and chance.
Saturday will be quiet and dry as a quick upper ridge passes over
the region.

The next system will be an upper low tracking across the Great
Lakes, coming from the northern Plains. This system will see greater
moisture than the previous one as models show a line of showers and
potentially thunderstorms to track across the eastern U.S. and
prompting PoPs from Sunday morning through Monday. At this time, not
seeing indicators of severe weather for central Indiana but breezy
non-thunderstorm winds with gusts of 25 to 30 mph are expected
especially for Monday... SPC shows that there could be some day 5
severe down in the ArkLaTex/Mississippi region so will continue to
monitor should the risk expand northward.

Finally, another weaker system could bring additional rain chances
mid-next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Impacts:

- Strong wind gusts to 25-35KT into this evening...with isolated,
  embedded higher gusts possible in few strong/severe TSRA thru 02Z
- MVFR CIGs possible in/near stronger cells through 02Z...with
  widespread MVFR CIG returning 08-09Z late tonight
- Winds veering slowly to SW this evening...and quickly to NW pre-
  dawn Thursday
- LLWS at KLAF/KHUF through 02Z this evening

Discussion:

Gusty southerly gradient winds gusting to 25-35KT early this
evening, courtesy of a strong low-level jet...will wane slightly
through the early evening while veering to southwesterly...with
gusts to 20-25KT from 04Z through dawn Thursday.  Higher gusts in a
few strong/severe storms tracking from southwest to northeast
through 02Z will be an isolated yet locally more potent hazard, with
gusts briefly to 55KT and small hail possible near terminals at
times.

VFR this evening will drop to MVFR and possibly brief IFR in
stronger convection...before widespread MVFR returns from NW to SE
around 08-09Z late tonight amid mainly scattered rain/snow showers.
MVFR CIGs Thursday...should lift back to low-VFR during 19-22Z from
west to east...before scattering out.

Northwest winds Thursday will increase slightly through the morning
despite cloudy skies...with sustained winds at 15-17KT at most TAF
sites through the majority of the daytime...and gusts as high as 24-
30KT.  Northwest winds at KIND should diminish to under 7KT by late
Thursday evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...AGM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
346 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

INZ021-030-031-037>042-046>049-054>057-062>065-070>072-202000-
Carroll-Clinton-Howard-Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-
Randolph-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-
Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
346 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. A few could be
strong or severe with all hazards possible.

In addition, windy conditions will develop this afternoon even
outside of thunderstorms, with gusts up to 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor forecasts through tonight in case
activation becomes necessary then.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ028-029-035-036-043>045-051>053-060-061-067>069-202000-
Warren-Tippecanoe-Fountain-Montgomery-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-Vigo-
Clay-Owen-Sullivan-Greene-Knox-Daviess-Martin-
346 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. Some could be
strong or severe with all hazards possible. There is a tornado watch
out for west-central Indiana through 10pm ET.

In addition, windy conditions will develop this afternoon even
outside of thunderstorms, with gusts up to 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor forecasts through tonight in case
activation becomes necessary then.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
916 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Newbern             39.24N 85.74W
03/19/2025                   Bartholomew        IN   Public

            Thunderstorm wind damage reported on Indiana
            Route 9 south of Indiana Route 46 and on
            Indiana Route 46 near Hartsville. Possible
            tornado. Time estimated by radar.

&&

AGM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>