Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
157 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fast-moving strong to severe thunderstorms will continue
  to march across central Indiana the remainder of the
  overnight with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
  possible.

- More strong to severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon
  and evening and mainly over southeastern sections.

- Strong non-thunderstorms winds will continue today with
  frequent gusts 40 to 50 mph

- Heavy rainfall will also be a concern today with rainfall totals
  of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts through tonight may
  produce localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Synopsis...

A potent negatively-tilted low pressure system will lift northeast
from northern Iowa to Lake Superior by this afternoon and Hudson Bay
tonight as a broad upper trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. A
strong 60+ knot low level jet will continue to pump deep moisture
from the Gulf to the Ohio Valley Valley the remainder of the
overnight before this feature shifts to eastern parts of Kentucky
and Indiana late today.

Latest radar data was indicated a broken line of storms with
embedded supercells moving into east central Illinois and
southeastern Missouri. These storms were located within an elongated
area of strong deep moisture convergence an in the right entrance of
a 100 knot upper jet streak, across northwestern Illinois. Deep and
low level shear was outstanding over this area although surface base
CAPEs were unspectacular per the SPC Mesoscale Analysis page owing
partially to modest lapse rates and dew points only in the 50s
downstream of the convection. Finally, Hi-Res soundings and
hodographs were indicating long curved hodographs, 0-1km and 0-3km
SRH values 500-700 m2/s2 and very fast storm motion of 60 knots from
around 210 degrees. Thus, while the line and stratiform area
continues to move east overnight, individual cells will race off to
the northeast. The low level jet and strong surface pressure
gradient associated the potent system will continue to generate
gusts 40 to 50 mph away from storms today, while gusts will be much
higher in any cell within the broken line especially the cells that
rotate. With instability waning overnight, damaging winds will be
the main threat with a lessor but non-zero chance for tornadoes,
especially early and over the Wabash Valley.

Heavy rain will also be a concern, but with the fast storm motion,
flooding will be a lesser concern until potentially later today when
better potential shifts to southeastern sections. Max moving average
PWATS to 1.3 inches per SPS local sounding climatology support an
inch to an inch and a half of storm total rainfall over central
Indiana through tonight with the highest amounts likely over the
southeastern sections as the initial cold front stalls due to the
southern upper trough spinning up a surface low that will lift
northeast along the stalled front and across the region tonight, and
another low level jet will surge northeast into northern Kentucky
and southeastern Indiana tonight, along with the surface low. In
addition, a 100 knot 500 millibar speed max will be moving in and
provide potential additional jet streak enhancement.

With any breaks in the clouds likely limited to mid morning into
early afternoon but a continued strong surge of return low level
flow, temperatures will continue to be well above normal and likely
reach the lower to middle 70s which is 20+ degrees above normal.
However, it will be getting colder overnight tonight as the front
moves through and cold advection takes over. The upper Wabash Valley
could get all the way down to the upper 30s while southeastern
sections should not get lower than the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Next week will continue March's variable, if not active weather
pattern.  The short term's multi-faceted, and at times potent
weather system will linger rain showers into Sunday morning as
temperatures recoil to near normal levels.  Amid a longer-wave, yet
progressive pattern...a broad zonal upper ridge will cross the
Midwest Monday through Tuesday night.  Robust south-southwesterly
surface flow Tuesday will return highs to around 70F.

The next weather system will also cross the central US Wednesday,
again promoting impressive surface cyclogenesis from northwest of
the local region and into the Great Lakes.  Accompanying
precipitation chances will have lower confidence in any appreciable
amounts despite lingering through 2-3 periods as the system's
supporting trough slows and broadens over the Ontario/Great Lakes
region.  Near to possibly slightly below normal readings are
expected as the long term period ends amid zonal northwesterly flow,
as southern extents of late-winter Canadian high pressure reach
Indiana.  The normal max/min through the long term increases from
52/33 to 54/35.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1147 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Impacts:

- Winds 170-200 degrees to 25 knots with gusts to 45 knots
  and higher possible in severe storms, mainly overnight

- MVFR and worse flying conditions at times in convection
  overnight and today

Discussion:

A potent low pressure system will lift northeast to Lake this
afternoon as a broad upper trough moves into the PLains. This will
cause the cold front to get hung up near and or west of the
terminals. Return flow off the Gulf and an unstable atmosphere will
lead to periods of thunderstorms, some severe overnight, along with
windy conditions and deteriorating flying conditions at times
through much of the TAF period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...MK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
313 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-161000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
313 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible the remainder of the overnight.
Damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph are the primary threat, though a few
tornadoes are also possible. Heavy rain and lightning will accompany
the storms as well.

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible overnight and
today.

Additional severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the main threats.

Heavy rain and localized flooding will also be possible through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely overnight and possible later today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
441 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Alamo                   39.99N 87.06W
03/15/2025                   Montgomery         IN   Public

            Tree limbs downed on State Road 25.

0349 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Indian Heights    40.42N 86.10W
03/15/2025                   Howard             IN   Public

            Tree of unknown size downed over road. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

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