Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Indianapolis, IN

636 
WWUS53 KIND 270130
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
830 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

INC083-270145-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250227T0145Z/
Knox IN-
830 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY...

At 830 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Petersburg,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Monroe City and Wheatland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 8741 3857 8741 3869 8727 3858 8724
      3853 8726 3851 8730 3854 8737 3853 8737
      3853 8738 3854 8738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 246DEG 44KT 3855 8725 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

MK

272 
WWUS53 KIND 270142
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
842 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

INC083-270152-
/O.EXP.KIND.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250227T0145Z/
Knox IN-
842 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 845 PM EST...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3854 8741 3857 8741 3869 8727 3858 8724
      3853 8726 3851 8730 3854 8737 3853 8737
      3853 8738 3854 8738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 238DEG 28KT 3859 8716 

$$

MK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
646 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light showers likely this afternoon and evening with
  a few thunderstorms across south-central IN

- Additional showers possible Thursday afternoon

- Breezy conditions at times late this week, particularly Friday,
  when frequent gusts of 35-45 MPH are likely and locally higher
  gusts will be possible

- A brief weekend cooldown will be followed by rebounding
  temperatures next week, as well as potential for heavy rainfall
  and possibly few strong storms by Tuesday into Tuesday night

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

The radar reflectivity loop was showing an area of moderate showers
over Madison and Delaware counties. These showers will moving very
quickly at 50+ mph and will very soon be across the border in Ohio.
Otherwise, most of the activity consisted of scattered very light
showers. That said, lightning detection and radar data was
indicating a thunderstorm over southern Illinois and near the
approaching cold front. This storm could eventually brush Knox
county and points northeast. But with nightfall at hand, current
thinking is this cell will weaken as it reaches the state line with
marginal instability waning.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

Rest of Today:

The warm front is now well north of central Indiana,
placing the entire forecast area within the warm sector. This warm
sector has broad SW flow of 8-12kt with modest moisture advection
attached. This moisture advection has induce isolated convective
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, and weak stratiform rain over
northern portions of the forecast area, but most places should
remain dry through the next few hours.

Temperatures have been a challenging forecast today with clouds and
increases in moisture combating with modest WAA. Most of southern
central Indiana should still reach the mid to upper 60s this
afternoon, but there is some uncertainty along the I-70 corridor and
northward. This area should see a modest temperature gradient due to
greater cloud depth. Generally near 60 is expected along the I-70
corridor, but this could increase by a few degrees if the greater
cloud deck lifts northward before 4PM.

A cold front will slowly push eastward this afternoon and evening
leading to greater lift and coverage of showers. These showers will
likely have isolated thunderstorms embedded within them, especially
as they reach south central Indiana. Current observations show 250-
500 J/kg of CAPE over this area, and this should only increase as
low level theta-e advection destabilized the lower troposphere. These
thunderstorms should remain subsevere given the lack of substantial
instability and fairly unorganized development. With that said,
there is enough speed shear through the lowest 3km for an isolated
organized cell to form, and potentially isolated strong wind gusts.

Tonight and Tomorrow:

The cold front begins shifting east this evening allowing
precipitation to taper off. Behind the front, a well mixed boundary
layer is expected leading to occasional wind gusts. Between wind
gusts and broken cloud cover, diurnal cooling will be much weaker,
with overnight lows in the low 40s to upper 30s.  Quiet weather is
then expected through the rest of the overnight period. Most
guidance shows increasing subsidence behind the front and lingering
moisture resulting in a low stratus deck by late tonight. This would
normally limit diurnal cooling, but cold air advection will help
cool temperatures into the mid-upper 30s.

Tomorrow will be much windier with dry warm advection pushing in
from the west ahead of a southward diving trough. This should create
deep PBLs and encouraging mixing into a 20-25kt LLJ in the
afternoon. As the trough dives south tomorrow evening, additional
showers will be possible. Although instability will be less than
today, weak low level instability will be possible in far eastern
central Indiana leading to a low chance of isolated thunder.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

The large scale synoptic situation through the first half of the
weekend will be dominated by an amplified western ridge pattern.

While this will allow a cooldown for the weekend, with highs
dropping back into the 30s to low 40s and lows in the upper teens to
20s, first, a fairly strong clipper-type system will push through
the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. As is typical, the majority of
moisture and precipitation with the system will be along and north
of the surface low track, and model profiles support a dry forecast,
but a strong pressure gradient and fairly deep mixing in the PBL
will promote strong, gusty winds on Friday.

Depending upon the depth of the mixed layer, which may be up to 5kft
or so, flow aloft of 45-50KT could potentially be tapped into and
mixed down. Average winds through the mixed layer look to approach
40KT at their peak, so frequent gusts in the 35-45 MPH range appear
likely with locally higher gusts possible. Flow throughout the mixed
layer will be largely unidirectional, which could enhance momentum
transfer and set the stage for isolated gusts approaching 50KT. Will
continue to message this concern and monitor evolving guidance for
potential wind headlines.

The weekend will turn sharply cooler in the wake of this system, as
a modestly strong Canadian surface high passes through the region,
with a warmup again next work week as the pattern deamplifies and
becomes more progressive.

Guidance suite has come more in line with a potentially very strong
low pressure system somewhere in the Midwest into the Ohio/Tennessee
valleys going into mid week next week, which could place severe
weather on the table in that time frame somewhere within that very
broad region, primarily Tuesday into Tuesday night given current
timing. The threat as it exists at this point would be more likely
to be to our south, as is well depicted by CIPS analogs,
experimental CSU machine learning guidance, and the SPC day 8
outlook, but this is a concern that will merit monitoring in the
coming days.

Even if a severe threat did not materialize locally, significant
rainfall would be on the table. Current WPC QPF shows a widespread 1-
3 inches of rainfall across the state, which could easily take
portions of the main stem rivers back into at least minor flood.
Hints of this are beginning to show up in some of the hydrologic
ensemble guidance.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 611 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

Impacts:

- A shower or two will be possible through 01z-03z

- MVFR ceilings developing after 06z and improving back to VFR after
  13z-16

- Winds 270-300 degrees with gusts to around 20 knots after 06z
  Thursday and near 25 knots after 18z-22z

Discussion:

A cold front will move through the terminals this evening and
overnight. Along and ahead of the front, a few showers will be
possible. Winds will shift to west and northwest and become gusty.
Ceilings are expected to deteriorate to to MVFR overnight and
improve back to VFR Thursday morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

MESOSCALE...MK
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...MK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
306 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

INZ021-028>031-035>041-043>047-051>054-060-272015-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-Hendricks-
Marion-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Sullivan-
306 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Frequent wind gusts of 35-45 MPH are likely Friday, with higher
gusts possible.

Locally heavy rain and a strong storm or two will be possible next
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ042-048-049-055>057-061>065-067>072-272015-
Randolph-Hancock-Henry-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Greene-Monroe-Brown-
Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
306 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

A few thunderstorms will be possible through early evening. Small
hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Frequent wind gusts of 35-45 MPH are likely Friday, with higher
gusts possible.

Locally heavy rain and a strong storm or two will be possible next
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind