Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
720 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 of 5 (slight risk) late this afternoon and
  this evening covering mainly southeast Illinois. Large hail,
  damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible.

- Showers and storms through tonight may generate heavy rain,
  leading to localized ponding of water in typical flood prone
  areas. There is a level 1 of 4 (marginal) risk for excessive
  rainfall.

- Tomorrow, there is a level 1 of 5 (marginal) risk for severe
  weather southeast of a Springfield to Bloomington line. Wind
  and hail are the main risks.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Forecast concern over the next couple hours is isolated supercells
near the I-70 corridor, where a Tornado Watch is in effect until
10 PM. Forcing is on the weak side, resulting in sparse coverage,
however the thermodynamic environment shows around 50 kt
effective deep layer shear on the northern edge of a 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE gradient. The storms we are watching are north of the warm
front, which was analyzed near I-64, and with favorably backed
winds, simulated hodographs over SE IL show good curvature in the
low levels. Thus tornadoes and hail will be a concern with the
strongest cells until instability diminishes later this evening.
Aside from the severe risk, a general uptick in coverage of
showers/storms is expected this evening and overnight over much of
the CWA ahead of a weak wave of low pressure. Locally heavy rain
will be the main feature of these storms, with latest CAMs showing
pockets of 1-2"+ rainfall overnight.

25

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Main concern in the near term will be the potential for a few
severe thunderstorms with the main concern southeast of a
Taylorville to Paris line tonight. Latest satellite imagery is
showing significant clearing in the wake of this morning's MCS
with stable wave clouds along the warm front and cloud streets
to the south. The RAP is showing this warm front moving north
into the southeast Illinois counties with MLCAPES increasing
into the 1000-2000 J/kg range with deep layer shear of 40-50
knots supporting a few organized multicells and supercells late
this afternoon into this evening. Large hail, damaging winds,
and a tornado or two will be possible with the strongest storms,
particularly along the warm front where there will be the best
low level curvature. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
given PWATS near 1.75" and the potential for training.

The showers and thunderstorms will then lift north overnight
with the warm front before a upper trough will move across the
area along with an attendant cold on Friday. Have gone with
likely/ categorical PoPs along the front. There remains some
potential for a few severe thunderstorms over the eastern half
of the CWA on Thursday afternoon into early evening, with large
hail and damaging winds being the main threat. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms will diminish overnight on Thursday
night as this first trough moves off to the east.

There will be additional chances for showers Friday through
Sunday as the LREF is showing a trough moving across the area
into Sunday with 20 to 40% of the ensemble members producing
rain during this period. After a brief cool down over the
weekend, the NBM is showing temperatures warming back up
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

MVFR ceilings, with patches of VFR were common across central IL
early this evening. This will continue for the next several hours,
while scattered showers and a few storms increase from the south,
associated with an approaching warm front. IFR ceilings are
forecast to slowly spread west to east across central IL
overnight, persisting into late morning then lifting and
scattering out during the afternoon. Scattered showers and a few
storms are possible on Thursday but expected coverage is too low
to include at this range. East winds tonight will veer south with
the warm frontal passage late, then continue to veer west by Thu
afternoon. 20-25 kt gusts will be common for much of the daylight
hours, particularly near/east of I-55.

25

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
319 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-012030-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
319 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon near and south of
Interstate 70 with the threat diminishing before 9pm. The main
concerns with these storms include large hail to the size of ping
pong balls, thunderstorm wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, and a tornado.

Otherwise, a corridor of heavy rainfall will develop in the vicinity
of the Illinois River Valley late this evening with some localized
amounts up to 3 inches possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A few stronger storms may develop Friday afternoon through early
Friday evening in areas east of Interstate 55. The main concerns will
be large hail up to 1 inch, and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up
to 60 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

MJA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
823 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Funnel Cloud     3 SSW Sigel             39.18N 88.52W
04/30/2025                   Effingham          IL   Broadcast Media

            A funnel cloud was reported by broadcast
            media north of Effingham along highway 45.

&&

RAC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
835 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     Hail             1 NE Rosamond           39.39N 89.15W
04/30/2025  M1.00 Inch       Christian          IL   Trained Spotter

&&

RAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
926 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

ILZ051-010245-
Sangamon-
926 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL SANGAMON COUNTY
THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 926 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Auburn, or 8 miles north of Virden, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Chatham, Auburn, Rochester, Divernon, Jerome, Southern
View, Leland Grove, Thayer, Glenarm, and Lowder.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 55 between mile markers 78 and 97.
 Interstate 72 between mile markers 93 and 103.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 8971 3976 8948 3952 8966 3952 8986
      3953 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 209DEG 29KT 3962 8972

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

25

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
935 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     Tornado          3 NNE Effingham         39.16N 88.52W
04/30/2025                   Effingham          IL   Public

            A brief touchdown of a tornado north of
            Effingham. Relayed via social media.

&&

RAC

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