Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
606 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for severe weather this
  evening into tonight. The greatest risk appears to be from
  damaging winds, though tornadoes and hail are possible as well,
  mainly west of a Jacksonville to Altona line. Most favorable
  timing would be 6pm to midnight.

- The risk for flooding is low (less than 10%), but there may be
  some localized ponding of water in typical poor-drainage urban
  areas.

- Chances for showers and storms return towards midweek. At this
  time, the chance for severe weather appears low (less than 5%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

***** Severe Weather Risk This Evening-Tonight *****

All attention remains on the developing upstream convection this
afternoon. A compact low pressure system is forecast to lift into
Iowa and drag its attendant cold front across the ILX CWA between
roughly 9pm and 3am tonight. Along and ahead of that front, a line
of intense thunderstorms has already developed upstream; these
storms will be on a weakening trend as they arrive in the Prairie
State around 7pm owing to loss of diurnally-driven surface based
instability, but still pose some risk for damaging wind gusts. The
risk will be highest west of a roughly Jacksonville to Altona line
where even a QLCS tornado isn't out of the question given (if you
believe the RAP) over 100 J/kg of 0-3 CAPE and ~30 kt of 0-3km line-
normal bulk shear. However, as the storms more dramatically weaken
the risk from damaging winds will be a bit more sporadic and
conditional on whether the strongest downdrafts can punch through
the building nocturnal temperature inversion to mix the strong LLJ
winds down to the surface.

That being said, there is one cell in central/northeast MO that is
currently lifting north-northeast towards the far western portion of
the ILX CWA. If it stays on its current trajectory, it may clip
western Schuyler County in just a couple hours...but it will be
close. We'll keep an eye on that cell and any others that may
attempt to form in the warm sector ahead of the main line of storms.

***** Flooding Risk Too? *****

At this time yesterday, a few of the CAMs showed one or two HP
supercells forming ahead of the main line across our west. Those
would have posed a flash flooding risk from >1.5"/h rain rates, but
at this time none of the CAMs are showing storms until the strongly
forced line arrives mid-late this evening. Given the orientation of
shear along the line of storms, mean storm motion will be 50-60 mph
towards the north-northeast, while the collective QLCS will be
sliding towards the east around 30-40 mph...which could make for
some minor training of storms. However, with the later arrival time
of storms and hence weaker instability over our area, thinking they
won't be producing heavy enough rain rates to cause flooding; in
fact, we may not have a whole lot of thunder at all with this line.
Nonetheless, the risk is nonzero especially in urban areas where
surfaces are hydrophobic, so we'll keep one eye on that as well.

***** Gusty Winds Tonight into Monday *****

It's probably superfluous to mention the gusty west-southwesterly
gradient winds tonight into Monday after such a windy spring and in
light of possible convective gusts over 60 mph tonight, but just so
no one's caught off guard: Bufkit mixing technique advertises
potential for some continued sporadic 35-45 mph gusts behind the
cold front tonight into tomorrow morning. We're not entirely
convinced mixing will be deeply enough for that, but certainly
tomorrow will be breezy especially along the I-74 corridor - in
closer proximity to the departing surface low.

***** Thunderstorm Chances Return Midweek *****

Behind the cold front, conditions will turn drier on Monday and
should remain too dry to support more precip until perhaps Tuesday
afternoon or evening when an ill-defined mid level disturbance may
spark a couple showers and storms north of roughly a Macomb to
Gibson City line. A lack of appreciable wind shear and weak
instability suggest a low (less than 5%) risk for organized severe
weather, though the inverted V to around 800-850 mb on GFS forecast
soundings suggests there could be some localized gusty outflows.

The deterministic ECMWF suggests another round of diurnally driven,
garden variety thunderstorms may form again in a weakly sheared
environment Wednesday afternoon-evening once more across our
northern counties, but confidence is low in this wave of possible
showers, with LREF precip probabilities only around 20-30%.

Precip chances increase Thursday into Friday as a more pronounced
wave featuring an attendant surface low and cold front lifts through
the region. Precise timing remains unclear, but highest precip
chances are currently forecast for Friday at 50-70%. A this time,
global models are each consistently advertising an ill-defined
surface low which suggests anemic kinematic fields and hence a low
severe weather risk.

Bumgardner

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Showers and storms will lift northeast ahead of a cold front
tonight, impacting most TAF sites between the 02-06Z timeframe.
Storm strength should weaken closer to the Indiana border though
thunderstorm wind gusts up to 50 kt will be possible with any of
the stronger storms. Southeast winds will shift to the west behind
the front by Monday with gusts remaining elevated between 25-30
kts. MVFR ceilings will filter in behind the front in a cold air
advection regime, looking to stick around through at least early
Monday afternoon. Winds should begin to slacken later in the
period then turn light after 00Z as high pressure ridging moves
overhead.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
309 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>052-211100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-
Logan-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-
309 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of severe thunderstorms is anticipated to move east into the
area this evening. Damaging winds are the main concern, however,
scattered large hail is also possible, and a few tornadoes cannot be
ruled out. The storms will also produce some heavy rain, which may
cause some localized ponding of water.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 7 pm and 10 pm.

Expected storm motion is toward the east northeast around 45 mph.

ILZ038-043>046-053>057-061-211100-
McLean-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
309 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and east
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of thunderstorms will move eastward across central Illinois
this evening, though it will likely be weakening as it approaches
eastern Illinois. These storms may still produce some localized
damaging winds, mainly west of I-57. Storms will also produce some
heavy rain, which may cause some localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 9 pm and midnight.

Expected storm motion is toward the east northeast around 45 mph.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-211100-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
309 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois and
southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of thunderstorms will move into southeast Illinois late this
evening. While they will be in a weakening state, these storms may
still produce some localized damaging winds, mainly near I-57.
Storms will also produce some heavy rain, which may cause some
localized flooding.

Minor flooding will occur along the Little Wabash River near Clay
City.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Minor flooding on the Little Wabash River will continue much of the
week. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed toward midnight.

Expected storm motion is toward the east northeast around 45 mph.

37

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
814 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Lewistown               40.40N 90.16W
04/20/2025  E65 MPH          Fulton             IL   Trained Spotter

            60-65 mph wind gusts reported.

&&