Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Lincoln, IL

430 
WWUS53 KILX 301753
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

ILC021-301802-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-250330T1815Z/
Christian-
1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area.Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for central and
east central Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 8892 3977 8891 3978 8887 3987 8810
      3937 8835 3937 8847 3922 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 259DEG 33KT 3969 8876 3923 8878 

$$

ILC029-041-115-139-147-173-301815-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-250330T1815Z/
Coles-Moultrie-Shelby-Piatt-Douglas-Macon-
1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN COLES...MOULTRIE...SHELBY...SOUTHEASTERN PIATT...WESTERN
DOUGLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES...

At 1252 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Dalton City to near Beecher City, moving east at
40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Sullivan, Lovington, Stewardson, and Windsor around 100 PM CDT.
  Allenville around 105 PM CDT.
  Arthur around 110 PM CDT.
  Cooks Mill and Mattoon around 115 PM CDT.
  Atwood around 120 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Trowbridge, Etna, Clarksburg, Wolf Creek State Park, Lake City, Mode,
Strasburg, Lakewood, Chesterville, and Hervey City.

This includes Interstate 57 between mile markers 169 and 172, and
between mile markers 180 and 215.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for central and
east central Illinois.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 8892 3977 8891 3978 8887 3987 8810
      3937 8835 3937 8847 3922 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 259DEG 33KT 3969 8876 3923 8878 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Bumgardner

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two rounds of convection are anticipated today. The first will
  mainly impact locations along and west of I-55 this morning.
  Gusty winds and hail will be possible with a few of the cells.

- The second round of convection will develop just east of the
  I-55 corridor toward midday...then will quickly track eastward
  into Indiana by early evening. Damaging wind gusts, very large
  hail, and a few tornadoes are likely with these cells.

- Another system will bring a chance for strong to severe
  thunderstorms on Wednesday: however, it is still too early to
  pinpoint exact details.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Some weaker cells have been percolating across central IL this
morning. The main show will come just after noon today. The
convective models having the line of storms exiting around 00z
this evening. We are still expecting very large hail (>2 inches),
damaging winds (60-80mph), and isolated, potentially strong
tornadoes. The risk looks to be near and east of the I-55
corridor. Please stay weather aware today!

Copple

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A line of thunderstorms seen on 0830z/330am radar imagery across
western Missouri/Arkansas will lift northeastward over the next
several hours. Based on radar timing tools and the latest HRRR
output, the storms will reach the far SW KILX CWA around
Winchester and Jacksonville between 7am and 8am, then will push
north of the I-74 corridor after 10am. While widespread severe
weather is not expected with this initial round of convection,
MUCAPE values increasing into the 1000-1500J/kg range and
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support the potential
for gusty winds and marginally severe hail. Given the current
trajectory, think the storms will primarily impact locations
along/west of I-55 this morning.

Once the morning activity departs, a second more significant round
of convection will develop along/ahead of the advancing cold
front/outflow boundary. While 00z CAMs still offer varying
solutions as to the exact location of convective initiation,
consensus continues to point to locations just east of the I-55
corridor between 12pm and 2pm. The pre-frontal airmass will become
moderately unstable and highly sheared...with SBCAPEs of
1500-2000J/kg and 0-6km shear of 50-55kt. Given ample instability,
steep mid-level lapse rates, and a freezing level of 10,000ft or
less...very large hail will be a primary concern with the cells as
they first begin to develop. As such, SPC is indicating a greater
than 10% chance for hail larger than 2 inches in diameter everywhere
east of I-55. With a mid-level jet streak shifting across the
region, speed shear will increase markedly this afternoon,
resulting in impressive 0-3km VGP values in excess of 0.5. Given
the high degree of shear, HREF ensemble mean Significant Tornado
Parameter (STP) values climb above 2 along/south of a Shelbyville
to Danville line. Am therefore concerned about a few potentially
strong tornadoes with the developing supercells. Given deep-layer
shear vectors parallel with the boundary, think the cells will
quickly grow upscale into a QLCS...with an attendant damaging wind
gust and tornado risk as the line races eastward across the I-57
corridor and into Indiana by early evening.

Once the cold front passes, the severe weather risk will come to
an end and a much cooler airmass will arrive tonight into Monday.
After highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s today, readings will
only reach the upper 40s and lower 50s on Monday. As high pressure
builds into the region and winds diminish, radiational cooling
will allow low temperatures Monday night to dip into the upper 20s
and lower 30s.

Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

After that, the active weather pattern will continue through the
remainder of the week. Dry conditions will prevail into Tuesday
before yet another strong storm system approaches from the
southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. While it is still too
early to properly assess any attendant severe weather risk, SPC is
highlighting much of central Illinois with a 15% probability of
severe...with a 30% chance for locations along/south of I-70.
Once the system passes, the main baroclinic zone will drop
southward and stall across the Ohio River Valley as it becomes
parallel with the deep-layer southwesterly flow pattern developing
across the central/eastern U.S. As a series of waves interacts
with the boundary, additional rounds of showers/storms will be
possible by the end of the week. The end result will be a wet and
unsettled extended forecast.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A line of storms are moving through central IL this afternoon,
primarily impacting DEC and CMI into the evening. PIA may see
some light showers this afternoon. Ceilings will drop tonight to
MVFR ~1-2kft. By late morning tomorrow, ceilings will rise back to
VFR for all sites. Winds will be gusty up to 30-35kt.
Southwesterly winds will rotate out of the northwest by this
evening behind the cold front.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-311700-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-
Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-
1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Light rain will move across the area this afternoon. An isolated
thunderstorm with small hail is possible, but severe weather is not
expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Another strong storm system will impact the Midwest late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Current projections from SPC suggest a 30%
probability of severe weather focused Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Stay tuned to later forecasts for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-311700-
McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Sangamon-Christian-
Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A significant round of convection will develop east of I-55 then
quickly track eastward into Indiana by early evening. All severe
hazards are possible...including damaging wind gusts in excess of
70mph, hail larger than 2 inches in diameter, and a few tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Another strong storm system will impact the Midwest late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Current projections from SPC suggest a 30%
probability of severe weather focused Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Stay tuned to later forecasts for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon, through 7
pm.

Auten