Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
322 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather threat will move from west to east across the
  forecast area through 7 pm. Tornadoes, damaging winds and hail
  are all a concern.

- On the back side of the storm system, a switch from rain to snow
  will occur, starting as early as 10-11 pm around Galesburg, with
  all precipitation moving out before sunrise. Accumulations of 1
  to 2 inches are possible north of a Macomb to Bloomington line.

- While the strong wind gusts will taper off for a time this
  evening, another period of wind gusts 40+ mph are expected after
  midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Severe weather threat:
Line of strong to severe thunderstorms has formed across the
Illinois River valley this afternoon, in an area of 500-1000 J/kg
SBCAPE. Low level lapse rates in this area are fairly steep,
generally near 9C/km, and some timely sunshine following the
morning dust canopy (now seen on dust channel satellite imagery
about to exit east central and southeast Illinois). Surface
analysis shows the dry line has reached Quincy, and HRRR guidance
brings it to near Champaign before sunset. Storms will continue to
move eastward ahead of this dry line, and should be along the
Indiana border toward 6-7 pm. Tornado watch runs until 9, but will
be trimmed from west to east as the threat ends.

Wind concerns:
No changes are being made to the wind headlines at this time, with
areas south of I-70 dropping off at 7 pm. There will be a period
of less intense winds this evening behind the storms, before the
deep upper trough behind the departing low arrives. Wind gusts
come back up to around 40 mph from west to east after midnight.

Overnight snow threat:
As the aforementioned upper trough moves in, another round of
precipitation arrives. High-res models have been in good agreement
that a switch to snow arrives by late evening around Galesburg,
with the changeover reaching Bloomington toward 2-3 am. A narrow
band of heavier snow is of concern, with HRRR focusing it from
about Macomb-La Salle, but getting a handle on the exact placement
is still a challenge at this point. Did some coordination with
neighboring offices on the need for a Winter Weather Advisory as
some indications of 2-3 inch amounts aren't out of the question,
but will hold off for now and watch it closely over the next
several hours.

Geelhart

.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Next trough is scheduled to arrive Friday night. While this
doesn't have as much moisture available, a subsequent trough later
in the weekend still looks to have widespread rain with it on
Sunday. Can't rule out a bit of snow as it ends late Sunday night,
but no impacts are expected.

Temperatures will be much cooler through the period, with mainly
40s and 50s for highs.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Through 00Z:
Main concern will be with convection that is currently expanding
over west central Illinois. Threat will be shifting east with time
ahead of a sharp surface boundary. Will include a 3-hour window at
all sites with PROB30 groups for potential IFR visibilities with
the heavier storms. South winds will gust 30-40 knots even outside
the storms, but may be as high as 50+ knots within the storms.

After 00Z:
Focus in this period shifts toward rapidly lowering ceilings mid
to late evening, as winds shift northwest behind the boundary. All
sites expected to be between 1000-1500 feet by late evening, with
HREF guidance suggesting highest probabilities of IFR ceilings at
KPIA/KBMI. An area of rain and snow showers will sweep east
between 06-12Z and bring some reduced visibilities at these two
sites as well. Rapid clearing should take place 12-15Z from west
to east.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ036-040>044-
047>054-061-066-071.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ062-063-066>068-
071>073.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
336 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

ILZ040-047-049-050-202045-
Schuyler-Cass-Scott-Morgan-
336 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong south to southwest winds will occur this evening, shifting to
northwest tonight. Wind gusts to 50 mph are expected. A Wind
Advisory in effect until 7 PM. Dry conditions for many areas will
also promote a risk of rapid fire growth potential, and a Red Flag
warning is in effect until 7 pm this evening.

Light snow accumulations are possible late night, mainly north of
I-72. Up to an inch of snow is possible on elevated surfaces.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong south to southwest wind gusts to 40 mph are possible on
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-048-051>057-061-202045-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Mason-
Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Menard-Sangamon-Christian-
Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
336 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms will occur into early evening.
Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible.

Strong south to southwest winds will occur this evening, shifting to
northwest tonight. Wind gusts to 50 mph are expected. A Wind
Advisory in effect until 7 PM. Dry conditions for many some will
also promote a risk of rapid fire growth potential until rain or snow
occurs, and a Red Flag warning is in effect until 7 pm this evening
for areas south of I-74 and I-57 westward.

Snow accumulations are possible late night, mainly north of I-72. 1
to 3 inches of snow are possible north of Peoria, while areas to the
south could see up to an inch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong south to southwest wind gusts to 40 mph are possible on
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed until 7 pm.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 50 mph.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-202045-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
336 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois and
southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms will occur into early evening.
Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible.

Strong south to southwest winds will occur into this evening,
shifting to northwest tonight. Wind gusts to 50 mph are expected. A
Wind Advisory in effect until 7 PM. Dry conditions for many some
will also promote a risk of rapid fire growth potential until rain or
snow occurs, and a Red Flag warning is in effect until 7 pm this
evening for areas south of I-74 and I-57 westward.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong south to southwest wind gusts to 40 mph are possible on
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed until 7 pm.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 50 mph.

25

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
412 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     Tornado          3 SW Kappa              40.64N 89.05W
03/19/2025                   Woodford           IL   Trained Spotter

            Tornado west of Comlara Park.

&&

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
415 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Goodfield               40.63N 89.28W
03/19/2025  M70 MPH          Woodford           IL   Trained Spotter

            Estimated wind gust along with dime size
            hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
416 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Hail             Goodfield               40.63N 89.28W
03/19/2025  M0.75 Inch       Woodford           IL   Trained Spotter

            Dime size hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
419 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Tornado          Kappa                   40.67N 89.01W
03/19/2025                   Woodford           IL   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
420 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Central Illinois Airpor 40.48N 88.91W
03/19/2025  M51 MPH          McLean             IL   AWOS

            AWOS station KBMI Bloomington Arpt.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
422 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 SE Sullivan           39.55N 88.54W
03/19/2025  M73 MPH          Moultrie           IL   Trained Spotter

&&