Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
117 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for severe weather east of
  a Gibson City to Pana line, and level 1 of 5 (marginal) risk
  further west. Main risks will be scattered damaging winds over
  60 mph and possibly a tornado. Timing will be 2 pm near the IL
  River to 7pm along the IL/IN State line.

- Expect an abrupt return to winter behind a cold front this
  evening, with wind chills dropping below 0 by early Monday
  morning. This rapid plunge in temperatures may result in a
  flash freeze (icy conditions) on untreated sidewalks and
  roadways.

- Strong winds will blow from the west-northwest tonight. Expect
  frequent gusts to 45+ mph, with a 20-30% chance for a sporadic
  gust or two to 55 mph (highest chances north of I-70). This
  will result in difficult driving conditions for high profile
  vehicles, and may cause a few localized power outages due to
  downed tree branches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

***** STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON *****

CAMs remain in agreement that a hslc line of storms will form along
a cold front early this afternoon between roughly the IL River and I-
55. As these storms move into a strongly sheared and increasingly
unstable airmass to the east (sfc dewpoints are already in the low-
mid 60s), they are forecast to intensify, posing a risk for mainly
scattered damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph. However, with low LCLs,
1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE, and 50-65 kt 0-6km bulk shear, both the
HRRR and RRFS advertise sig tor parameter values climbing to 2 to 4
east of a roughly Taylorville to Bloomington line. 0-3km CAPE over
150 J/kg and and 30-40 kt shear would favor a QLCS tornado risk with
any bowing segments that maximize the line-normal component of this
shear, but the HRRR, ARW, and each REFS member suggest there may be
some hybrid/supercell characteristics as well. Needless to say, the
SPC level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for severe weather and 5% tornado
risk seem justified by what we're seeing; we anticipate needing a
line of severe thunderstorm warnings with one/more embedded tornado
warnings this afternoon. Timing would be roughly 1-2pm near/west of
I-55 to 7pm along the IL/IN state line. In addition, storm motion
will be fast at 50-65 mph, so be sure to have multiple ways to
receive warnings and a plan for quickly taking shelter if necessary.

***** TURNING WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER *****

Behind the cold front, the rapid pressure rises will result in an
abrupt uptick in (non-thunderstorm) winds out of the west-northwest.
This effect will be most pronounced in areas near and east of
roughly I-55, since the front will be strengthening as it moves
through. Simultaneously, the sfc low will rapidly deepen (~20 mb in
15 hours) in the left exit region of the curved 125-140 kt 500mb jet
streak, where differential positive vorticity advection will be
maximized (from both shear and curvature). This will result in a
sharp pressure gradient across the area. Unsurprisingly, forecast
soundings from various CAMs suggest mean PBL winds reach 35 to 40 kt
late this evening, with winds at the top of the mixed layer around
45 kt; the NAMNest even suggests a few hours where the max wind at
the top of the PBL reaches 50+ kt across our north. Consequently, we
suspect winds will be sustained at 30-35+ mph with frequent gusts to
45+ overnight area-wide. In our north, sustained winds may approach
40 mph for a couple hours with a gust or two to 55+ mph tonight.
The HREF suggests less than a 10% chance of these 55 mph gusts,
but we lean more towards the REFS which advertises those
probabilities at 20-40% given the strong cold advection (and
subsident) regime with rapid pressure rises. The Wind Advisory
remains in effect from 3pm this afternoon through 3pm tomorrow
area-wide.

In addition to the wind this evening, a brief burst of snow with
moisture wrapping around the low could give our area a quick dusting
to an inch of accumulation. This seems most likely between 6pm and
midnight north of roughly I-72 (I-74 east of Champaign). Additional
snow showers may (20-40% chance) continue along the I-74 corridor
into tomorrow morning, with lighter activity (we called it
"flurries" in the forecast) further south. With the rapid drop in
temperatures this evening, possibly resulting in a flash freeze
(though this will depend on how much evaporates due to the strong
winds), and the proceeding snow, we may wind up with some slick
spots on untreated roadways and sidewalks. Temperatures (wind
chills) will drop 25-30+ (35-45) degF in an hour behind the cold
front this evening, followed by a more gradual drop overnight with
lows in the teens (and wind chills between 0 and minus 10) by
sunrise Monday morning. Wind chills are unlikely (20-30% chance) to
rise out of the single digits on Monday.

Tuesday into Wednesday, global models and their respective ensembles
are in general agreement that ridging in the Plains will attempt to
nudge its way into the Midwest, but uncertainty increases in the
forecast Thursday (New Year's Day) and beyond as another push of
arctic air across the Great Lakes attempts to spill southward into
our neck of the woods. It also appears a clipper system will impact
some portion of the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes Regions Wednesday
night into Thursday, but probabilities for measurable snowfall are
highest to our north - only running 15-30% (highest along the I-74
corridor) in our area.

Bumgardner

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Low pressure was located over northwest IL at midday, and will
deepen as it tracks into the Great Lakes through tonight. This
will drive a strong cold front across the terminals this
afternoon. A broken line of storms is expected, with damaging wind
gusts and brief LIFR conditions if a terminal is impacted.
Otherwise MVFR ceilings will be common through tonight. An area of
-SN well behind the cold front should impact much of central IL
tonight and included a period of MVFR visibility for this. Winds
will be strong and gusty through the period, southwest ahead of
the front, then veering west behind the frontal passage. Gusts to
40 kt can be expected at times late this afternoon into Monday
morning.

25

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
212 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-292015-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-
Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-
212 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

West-northwest winds will gust 45-50 mph behind a strong cold front
tonight. Falling temperatures behind the front will drop wind chills
to the single digits below zero late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Wind chills will be in the single digits below zero Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-292015-
McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Sangamon-Christian-
Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
212 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A strong cold front will move through the area late this afternoon
and bring a round of scattered thunderstorms. Some of these storms
could be strong to severe with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
as the main severe weather threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Behind the front, northwest winds will gust to 40-50 mph, along with
temperatures becoming much colder. This will lead to wind chills
falling into the single digits below zero early Monday morning for
areas north of I-70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

25

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
217 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 NNE Ashland           39.92N 89.99W
12/28/2025  M49 MPH          Menard             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW7786 Tallula.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
232 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     Rain             1 S Goodfield           40.61N 89.28W
12/28/2025  M1.62 Inch       Tazewell           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW8284 Goodfield.

0215 PM     Rain             Pekin                   40.57N 89.63W
12/28/2025  M1.52 Inch       Tazewell           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW0283 Pekin.

0215 PM     Rain             1 NNE Eureka            40.73N 89.27W
12/28/2025  M1.47 Inch       Woodford           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CW1740 Eureka.

0224 PM     Rain             1 NNW Morton            40.63N 89.48W
12/28/2025  M1.44 Inch       Tazewell           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MRTNV 1 NNW Morton.

0211 PM     Rain             Washington              40.70N 89.42W
12/28/2025  M1.43 Inch       Tazewell           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW8799 Washington.

0217 PM     Rain             1 NNW Galesburg         40.96N 90.37W
12/28/2025  M1.28 Inch       Knox               IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW8259 Galesburg.

0215 PM     Rain             1 NW Washington         40.71N 89.42W
12/28/2025  M1.25 Inch       Tazewell           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW7110 Washington.

0218 PM     Rain             4 NE East Peoria        40.70N 89.52W
12/28/2025  M1.12 Inch       Tazewell           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station GW3458 East Peoria.

0205 PM     Rain             Littleton               40.23N 90.62W
12/28/2025  M1.05 Inch       Schuyler           IL   Mesonet

            Rainfall so far today with 0.68 inch rain
            Sunday morning and 0.37 inch early Sunday
            afternoon.

0211 PM     Rain             3 ENE East Peoria       40.69N 89.53W
12/28/2025  M1.00 Inch       Tazewell           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW6160 East Peoria.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
238 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Capital Airport         39.85N 89.68W
12/28/2025  M47 MPH          Sangamon           IL   ASOS

            ASOS station KSPI Spfld Capital AP.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
239 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NW Lincoln            40.16N 89.37W
12/28/2025  M51 MPH          Logan              IL   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
240 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     Rain             1 S Morton              40.60N 89.47W
12/28/2025  M1.71 Inch       Tazewell           IL   Public

&&