Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO
210 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of scattered thunderstorms this evening through Friday
  may generate localized heavy rain. The risk of flooding is low
  (5%), but nuisance ponding of water in poor drainage areas may
  occur.

- There is a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for severe weather west
  of the IL River this evening. The primary risk will be localized
  damaging thunderstorm winds.

- Temperatures behind the cold front will be slightly cooler
  through the new week. Highs in the upper 70s near 80, and lows
  in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Here comes the rain. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
been percolating across west central IL so far today. The line of
thunderstorms that will bring the risk of damaging winds and
*maybe* an isolated tornado enters the western part of the state
between 23z and 01z. The SPC has west of the Illinois River in a
slight risk for this evening into overnight hours. It looks like
the severe risk will be when it first enters Illinois, but will
lose steam as it makes its way east. We may have a 2-3 hour period
where we could see the damaging winds. Instability initially is
1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE but as it progresses, the instability
rapidly decays. The shear is being modelled stronger than in
previous days. We have been seeing bulk shear of 20-30 knots and
now today, the CAMs are depicting 40-50 knots of bulk 0-6km shear
just ahead of the front. There is an inverted v signature on model
soundings. This could indicate potential microburst activity. The
long, skinny CAPE profile on the model soundings, and the PWAT
values of 1.7-2 inches indicate more of a heavy rain risk. These
PWAT values look to linger over the area through at least
Thursday. We will see beneficial and much needed rain, but
localized, urban flooding is possible. At this time, the risk
looks to be highest near and south of the I-72 corridor. The crops
will be greatly appreciative of the multiple rounds of rain this
week. From tonight to Thursday morning we could see rainfall
amounts of 1-2.5 inches

Tomorrow we have a marginal risk for severe weather east of I-55,
primarily for the damaging wind risk. However, most of us will
experience much needed rain. The slowly departing cold front
hanging across central IL, along with multiple shortwaves
seemingly pulsing through the region through Friday, bring several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the week. We
should see a dry Saturday, but additional rain chances return on
Sunday for the new week.

Tomorrow IL EPA is increasing our air quality concerns with it
becoming unhealthy for sensitive groups (orange category) north of
a Quincy to Paxton line. The Canadian wildfire smoke will make an
attempt to return south behind the cold front.

Temperatures cool slightly behind the front today. Highs through
the weekend into the new week will be in the upper 70s to near 80.
Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

A slow-moving cold front is now just entering northwest Missouri,
and ahead of it increasing moisture and cloud cover are
overspreading the terminals. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms may approach KPIA and KSPI early this afternoon, but
the bulk of any impacts will not occur until closer to 06Z.

By then, waves of thunderstorms will slowly track east and
eventually impact all terminals to some degree overnight. While
exact timing of the thunderstorms will likely vary from the
current TAFs, the forecast represents the current thinking on best
timeframe. Thunderstorms will eventually weaken with the
diminishing of a LLJ overnight, but showery activity will continue
to keep degraded conditions at the terminals through the TAF
period. There is a risk for IFR ceilings along and in the vicinity
of the stalled front, and with persistent showers and
thunderstorms impacting the region, that risk is becoming more
tangible.

MRB

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO
212 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>042-047>051-041915-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-
212 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to persist this evening and
tonight. A few of the storms may be strong to severe with a threat
of damaging winds and hail. An isolated tornado is possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Air quality will be unsafe for sensitive groups on Wednesday.

A couple of waves of thunderstorms will continue Wednesday through
Friday. The severe weather threat is more uncertain during that time
frame, but locally heavy rainfall is possible through the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ043>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-041915-
De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-
Richland-Lawrence-
212 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will begin to move into eastern central and
southeast Illinois late tonight. At this time, severe weather is not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered thunderstorms area expected to continue into Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with
hail and damaging winds the main threat.

A couple of waves of thunderstorms will continue Thursday and
Friday. The severe weather threat is more uncertain during that time
frame, but locally heavy rainfall is possible through the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

WFO ILX