Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Lincoln, IL

320 
WGUS73 KILX 050641
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
141 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

ILC101-050651-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250405T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lawrence IL-
141 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED 
WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

&&

LAT...LON 3885 8753 3883 8752 3882 8753 3878 8750
      3877 8751 3877 8750 3875 8750 3874 8750
      3868 8753 3866 8760 3865 8760 3864 8762
      3860 8762 3859 8761 3859 8764 3857 8764
      3857 8765 3857 8791 3861 8791 3885 8755

$$

Deubelbeiss

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
930 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch is in effect for areas along and south of a
  Sangamon to Macon to Piatt to Champaign to Vermilion County line
  through 7 AM Sunday morning. The greatest potential for heavy
  rain exists is along and south of I-70, where there is a 50%
  chance of exceeding 3 inches of additional rainfall. The
  heaviest rains are expected this evening with 1 to 2 inches of
  rain along and southeast of a Taylorville to Decatur to
  Champaign line.

- There is a slight to enhanced risk (level 2-3 of 5) of severe
  storms late this afternoon into early overnight, with scattered
  large hail and damaging winds the primary hazard. Tornadoes are
  possible during the late evening (roughly 9 PM to midnight)
  south of I-70 (5% chance).

- A hard freeze (lows below 28 degrees) still appears likely
  overnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning (60-90%
  chance). The cold temperatures will threaten any sensitive early
  season vegetation which may need to be covered or taken inside.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Only update will be to freshen the pop/wx grids. Strong to severe
storms are moving across southern IL and could affect far
southeast IL in Lawrence and Richland counties. Update will be
coming.

Auten

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Will continue the Flood Watch from Sangamon, Macon, Piatt,
Champaign and Vermilion counties southward through 7 AM Sunday.
We are expecting an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall in this
watch area, with 3-4 inches possible in southeast IL from I-70
south. The heaviest rainfall of 1-2 inches likely occurs this
evening along and southeast of a Taylorville to Decatur to
Champaign line.

Mid afternoon surface map shows a warm front over central KY/TN/AR
and into southeast Texas. Another frontal trof was extending ne
through se MO into central IL. Widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms lifted ne across central IL during early/mid
afternoon with thunderstorms with heavier rains sw of St Louis
area.

Latest CAMs show a lull in convection over southeast IL during late
this afternoon, otherwise widespread showers along with chance of
thunderstorms over the area through this evening and diminishing
from the nw over central IL during overnight but continue high
chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms in southeast IL. As
warm front lifts into southeast IL during this evening, we will
see increasing instability with MU CAPEs of 1800-2500 j/kg in
southeast IL along with strong 0-6 km bulk shear values of 40-65
kts. This supports SPC's slight risk of severe storms this evening
in southeast IL with enhanced risk budding into Lawrence and
southern Richland counties which gets close to the warm section by
mid/late evening when best chance of tornadoes will be. PW values
rising to 1.5-2 inches from I-55 se into this evening to support
heavy rain threat especially from I-72 south. Lows tonight range
from lower to mid 40s in central IL (coolest nw of IL river) to
the low to mid 50s se of I-70.

Another low pressure to lift ne along the frontal boundary to
our southeast on Saturday to bring another wave of moisture with
showers and isolated thunderstorms over mainly areas se of the IL
river with highest pops in southeast IL. Far southeast IL has
marginal risk of severe storms Sat afternoon but latest model runs
appears to keep stronger storms se of Lawrence county. May see
another half to 1 inch of rain from I-70 southeast on Sat and Sat
evening with heaviest amounts in far se CWA near Lawrenceville.
Highs Sat around 50F to lower 50s over much of central IL and
upper 50s/lower 60s far southeast IL. One more disturbance bring
more showers to se half of CWA on Sunday with lighter qpf amounts
generally under a tenth inch. Highs Sunday in the upper 40s and
lower 50s, coolest in southeast IL.

Not much change to the forecast during upcoming work week. A cold
front passes through on Monday and may produce a few light
rain/snow showers especially from I-74 northeast. Hard freeze
still likely overnight Monday night into early Tue morning with
low in the mid 20s central IL and upper 20s south of I-70.

IL in a WNW upper level flow during mid week with a short wave
scooting by around Wed bringing chance of showers, with good
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Wed night and Thu as
stronger disturbances moves in. Highs Tue in the upper 40s/lower
50s modifying into the upper 50s/lower 60s on Wed. Temps continue
to warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s Thu/Fri. The milder
pattern that returns during 2nd half of next week looks to
continue. CPC 8-14 Day outlook for Apr 12-18 has 40-45% chance of
above normal temperatures across IL with near normal precipitation
over central IL and below normal pcpn over the Wabash river
valley.

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Rain and isolated thunderstorms will remain a threat at SPI, DEC,
and CMI this evening for several hours. Vis will be reduced with
the rain and cigs will be at or below 1kft through next 24hrs at
all sites. Winds gusty at times and be out of the northeast
through the night. Wind direction will become more northerly
overnight and into tomorrow.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ044>046-051>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
343 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-051100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-
343 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and evening.
Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday afternoon. Severe
storms are not expected, though cloud to ground lightning is a risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ038-042>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-051100-
McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
343 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening, with
isolated thunderstorms lingering in southeast IL overnight.
Some of the storms could be strong or severe south of a Pittsfield
to Bloomington line, with damaging winds and large hail the primary
concerns. Isolated tornadoes are possible, especially from I-70 south
during this evening. In addition, there will be additional periods of
moderate to heavy rains especially this evening with 1 to 3 inches
possible that may lead to flooding or additional rises on area
streams and rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A few thunderstorms will likely linger in southeast IL on Saturday.
More heavy rain is possible in southeast IL, especially south of
I-70 leading to additional rises on area streams and rivers.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday.
Severe storms are not expected, though cloud to ground lightning is a
risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening mainly south of I-72.

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
458 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

ILZ052-054-061-042230-
Christian-Moultrie-Shelby-
458 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN...
SOUTHWESTERN MOULTRIE AND SHELBY COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 457 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Owaneco to 7 miles northwest of Herrick to near
Ramsey. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pana, Clarksburg, Oconee, Cowden, Tower Hill, Assumption, Lakewood,
Westervelt, Findlay, Shelbyville, Rosamond, Owaneco, Bethany,
Herrick, and Wolf Creek State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 8914 3935 8914 3935 8921 3949 8928
      3965 8874 3935 8867 3922 8885
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 221DEG 49KT 3946 8922 3927 8912 3907 8915

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
833 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     Tornado          3 NE Warrensburg        39.96N 89.02W
04/02/2025                   Macon              IL   NWS Storm Survey

            An EF-U tornado was video taped progressing
            for about 1 mile to the northwest of
            Forsyth. No damage was noted.

0628 PM     Tornado          3 SW Jewett             39.18N 88.28W
04/02/2025                   Cumberland         IL   NWS Storm Survey

            The EF-0 tornado touched down about 1 mile
            south of Woodbury and was on the ground for
            4 miles. It mainly damaged trees and several
            roofs of homes and outbuildings.

0633 PM     Tornado          2 NNW Jewett            39.23N 88.26W
04/02/2025                   Cumberland         IL   NWS Storm Survey

            The tornado produced mainly EF-0 and EF-1
            damage, but had periods of EF-2 damage (115
            mph peak wind) where it snapped over 20
            power poles and snapped numerous large
            trees. The tornado was on the ground for 44.62
            miles in Illinois. The tornado crossed into
            Indiana for another 10.8 miles.

0702 PM     Tornado          3 NE Marshall           39.42N 87.65W
04/02/2025                   Clark              IL   NWS Storm Survey

            The EF-1 tornado touched down near I-70 and
            flipped two semi-trucks before it did
            significant damage to a hog farm. Debris
            from that hog farm was deposited over the
            full 8 miles of the track. Other damage
            during the tornado was to trees and a few
            power poles, along with outbuilding roofs.

&&

Shimon