Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
745 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will lift back northward as a warm front overnight,
which will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm
chances increase on Thursday with additional energy moving through
the region. The pattern looks to remain unsettled through the
weekend as an upper level low persists over the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Frontal boundary near the Ohio has storms sparking in the warm sector
to the south. Stronger storms are showing a newd movement while sct
thunderstorms that look to be developing all along the front are
headed to the north. Update was to try to account for these storms
blossoming over srn and sw CWA. Previous discussion:

The stalled front will begin to lift north as a warm front late this
evening and continue through the overnight hours. As the front lifts
northward, showers and thunderstorms will be possible through a good
portion of the night. The best coverage of storms is expected across
eastern Indiana and western Ohio - where the nose of a 35-40 kt low
level jet looks to be focused. These storms will be elevated, so
strong winds from storms will be limited, however hail cannot be
ruled out.

Temperatures drop this evening and then steady out overnight with
lows from upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level flow backs southwesterly with a robust shortwave lifting
northeast across the Mid MS Valley and into the Great Lakes
Thursday/Thursday night. Associated surface low pressure to track
northeast and deepen as it lifts into the Great Lakes.

By day break the front will be across the northern FA and continue
lifting north. Moisture increases in the warm sector on Thursday
with the possibility of moderate instability developing during the
afternoon. HREF MUCAPE values show an increase to 1000-1500 J/Kg.
However, some of the CAM runs limit the instability to the marginal
category with the area grunged out. This will have to be monitored
as we get closer and would be a limiting factor for severe weather
potential.

Expect multiple rounds of storms to develop with the best coverage of
storms to develop during the afternoon from the west and overspread
the area thru the evening. Wind shear profiles show effective bulk
shear values near 30 kts, which would help promote some organize
convection. Wind profiles are unidirectional with flow out of the
southwest. The primary severe weather threat is damaging straight
line winds, with hail being a secondary threat. The severe threat
will diminish through the evening. Pressure gradient increases and
forecast soundings show a potential momentum transfer around 30 kts.
Have bumped up NBM winds with southwest winds gusting up to 35 mph
during the afternoon.

High temperatures on Thursday to range from the upper 70s northwest
to the lower 80s southeast. The front remains to the west thru 12Z
Friday with lows Thursday night from the upper 50s northwest to the
lower 60s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast uncertainty is unusually high the end of this week into
next week. On Friday, a frontal boundary is likely to be around the
Ohio Valley which supports chances for showers and thunderstorms
during peak diurnal heating. Marginal CAPE may end up overlapping
with some shear so a low end severe risk cannot be ruled out in
the afternoon.

For Saturday into the start of next week, ensembles show a great
amount of spread in regards to cutoff low placement over the eastern
third of CONUS. The EPS depicts the low setting up in the vicinity
of the Ohio Valley which would lead to persistent shower chances and
lower temperatures into next week. The GEFS do not depict this
cutoff low in the area with ridging, warmer, and drier air building
into the Ohio Valley by Monday after a cool weekend dominated by
high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Frontal boundary along/n of CVG/LUK will have showers develop and
pass over these terminals this early evening. Storms expected to
cross these terminals are showing a weakening trend, and
thunderstorms look to skirt the area to the east. Have kept ptype
without any lightning and will amend quickly if this changes.

The front will lift north tonight, with showers and a few
thunderstorms found along and in it's wake. Like the CVG/LUK
terminals, only have VCSH as the wx type given the expected isolated
nature of storms.

Wind shear later overnight will be found as 40kt winds at 2kft look
to be in play in the weak lljet setting up late tonight.

More storms are expected tomorrow afternoon with a combination of
diurnal heating to provide some instability and a weak s/w tracking
ne into srn Lake Michigan late in the day. Again, just have mention
of showers w/o tstorms being this late in the forecast. As the front
crosses, winds will shift sly and then become sw overnight and
Thursday. Expect a nice increase with 14-18kt sustained wind, gusting
to the mid 20kts.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions expected Thursday night in showers and
thunderstorms. MVFR conditions possible Friday into early Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Franks/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Franks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
431 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-010845-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
431 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central
Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday. Some storms may be
strong to severe during the afternoon and evening. Damaging
straight-line winds are the primary threat, with hail being a
secondary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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