Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
456 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms to continue until a cold front passes
through the area tonight. The front looks to stall out near the Ohio
River overnight into Wednesday, with a general lull in precipitation
chances. The threat for storms increases Thursday as the front lifts
back north across the area, followed by a cold front passage Thursday
night. High pressure looks to build back in by the weekend, offering
a return to drier weather and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Update...
A new severe thunderstorm watch #192 has been issued for the severe
weather threat for the second thunderstorm complex that will impact
areas generally south of I-70. This watch is in effect until midnight.

Previous discussion...
Deep surface low over the northern Great Lakes to tack into southern
Canada with an attendant cold front dropping southeast into the Ohio
Valley this evening.

Initial thunderstorm complex developed this afternoon in the warm
sector - where moderately unstable instability existed. This complex
moved quickly across ILN/s area producing strong to severe wind
gusts. This complex is currently moving thru central Ohio and
northern KY.

A second complex of storms was tracking across southern Illinois
into southern Indiana. Question revolves around the affects of this
complex on ILN/s area.

Airmass has temporarily stabilized in the wake of the initial
thunderstorm complex across east-central Indiana and west central
Ohio. Moderate to strong southwesterly flow and clearing evident on
visible satellite imagery was leading to destabilization of the
airmass over Indiana where moderate instability was being observed -
feeding this second complex. This axis of moderate instability is
expected to work back into ILN/s southwest counties late this
afternoon and then across the southern FA this evening. This would
support continued thunderstorm threat across the area into this
evening. WoFS/HRRR and SPC mesoscale analysis all support a continued
severe threat beginning around 22Z into the southwest and then
working across the area thru 02Z. Effective shear looks to be
30-35kts supporting organized storms with bowing segments and
damaging wind being the main threat. The most favored area for severe
weather looks to be south of the I-70 corridor.

After this complex pushes off to the east a continued threat for an
isolated shower or perhaps an isold non-severe storm will persist
with the frontal passage.

The front stalls out just south of the Ohio River with clouds
lingering across the south closer to the front. Temperatures drop to
lows from the mid 40s northwest - where clearing takes place to the
upper 50s/near 60 across northern Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure builds across the Great Lakes with the frontal
boundary stalled south of the Ohio River Wednesday morning. Model
solutions have generally trended drier and expect most of the area
to remain dry for most of the day Wednesday with a chance for storms
later in the afternoon across the south as moisture begins to advect
back north. Expect high temperatures to range from the upper 60s
north to the mid 70s south.

Mid level flow backs southwesterly with the front lifting back
northward as a warm front Wednesday night, further increasing
shower/storm chances. Instability looks to be limited and elevated.
Expect lows from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A robust short wave moving out of the Ozarks on Thursday will
deamplify as it lifts up the Ohio Valley on Thursday night. At the
surface, a warm front will lift across the region Wednesday night
and there could be some showers and thunderstorms associated with
that. Potential for showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector
will increase with the combination of diurnal heating and the
approach of upper support. Activity will wane somewhat as the short
wave lifts away from the area later Thursday night. The short wave
will take a surface low west and north of the region, but a trailing
cold front will slide into the forecast area Thursday night.

The front will not make it all of the way through the area until
Friday and possibly Friday night when a stronger push comes from a
northern stream trough digging into the region. Showers and some
thunderstorms will continue until this trough passes east of the
area.

With the passage of this trough, the mid levels transition into a
high amplitude, blocky pattern. A closed low will develop out of the
base of the trough that moves through, but there is some potential
that this low then retrogrades back into the region early next week.
With quite a wide range of solutions on where a closed low will
occur, have stayed pretty close to the NBM for now keeping the
region dry.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday and then drop
below normal over the weekend. If the closed low stays east of the
area, then temperatures will rebound early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thunderstorms have developed in the moderately unstable airmass ahead
of an approaching cold front. Convective thunderstorm complex moving
east impacting the TAF sites currently thru about 20-21Z across
KCMH/KLCK. These storms causing a wind shift to the west with gusts
of 40-50+kts. After the passage of this complex - expect a general
lull in storm activity. Another complex over southern Illinois may
affect the southern TAF sites late in the afternoon into early
evening with cold front pushing south thru the area.

Have a PROB30 and tempo groups for additional showers and
thunderstorms with the frontal passage early tonight. The cold front
is expected to stall out near the Ohio River late tonight, which will
likely result in MVFR CIGs at the southern TAF sites.

Southwest winds will gust up to 30 kts this afternoon and then shift
to the northwest around 10 kts this evening with FROPA and then
northeast to east at less than 10 kts overnight into Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...Additional thunderstorms are possible later Wednesday into
Wednesday night. MVFR/IFR conditions likely Thursday into Thursday
night along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR conditions possible
Friday into early Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
430 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-300830-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
430 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central
Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely today. Some storms may be
strong to severe during the afternoon and evening with damaging
straight line winds being the primary threat. Additionally, large
hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few strong to severe storms are possible on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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