Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
906 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Waves of low pressure will result in additional rounds of showers
and storms, bringing the prospects for heavy rain and potential
flooding into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A warm front continues to struggle lifting north through the area
this evening. The good news is a bulk of the shower activity
associated with the front has moved off the the north and east
giving us a brief break from widespread rainfall. However, shower
and storm activity will pick up once again later tonight when a weak
cold front/surface trough noses in from the west. Most of the
activity is likely to be sub-severe since instability is forecast to
mainly be elevated as the area never fully enters the warm sector.
Convection should be moving quick enough that flooding threats are
mitigated somewhat although any rainfall on already saturated ground
could lead to problems. Aside from locally heavy rain, hail is a
secondary threat from the elevated storms overnight. Temperatures
stay steady through the night before starting to rise before
sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The wet pattern will persist into the weekend. In split flow pattern
a mid level trough is forecast to dig southeast into the Great
Lakes. As surface wave ripples into the Great Lakes expect a cold front
to advance southeast into the area during the day. This will result
in more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be
strong to severe along and ahead of the front. Best timeframe will be
in the afternoon and evening hours. This severe threat is conditional
based on potential instability - with the best threat over ILN/s
southeast counties. Moderate to heavy rainfall and flooding will
continue be a threat. Temperatures will actually begin to drop across
the west in the afternoon as CAA begins to ensue. Highs will range
from the lower 60s northwest to the upper 70s southeast.

Showers and storms will continue into Saturday evening, adding
additional rainfall to an already saturated ground. Rainfall from
Saturday into Saturday night looks to be potentially the most
impactful overall, not only adding to the overland flooding, but also
exacerbating rivers already in flood. Widespread precipitation will
transition over to just showers overnight with CAA increasing from
the northwest. A few wet snowflakes may be observed in our far
northwest counties late. Lows will range from the mid/upper 30s
northwest to the mid 40s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Split mid level flow with southern stream shortwave and associated
surface low rippling north along the boundary that is to our
southeast Sunday. This will keep rain chances in the forecast
Sunday, possibly mixing with some snow showers north prior to ending
Sunday evening. Being north of the front cooler temperatures will be
observed Sunday with highs from 45 to 50. Temperatures Sunday night
will drop below freezing in many locations with lows from 30 to 35.

Models fairly consistent with a pattern change as mid level northern
stream energy drops south carving out a trof over the Great Lakes
Monday. This will lead to a chance of pcpn Monday afternoon into
Monday night. With colder air across the area rain showers will mix
with snow showers.

As this trof shifts east a northwest flow will develop on Tuesday.
Surface high pressure to build across the area Tuesday and east of
the area Wednesday. This high will offer dry weather and cooler
temperatures. Chilly highs Tuesday in the mid and upper 40s drop to
lows in the mid and upper 20s by Wednesday morning (coldest night of
the week). Temperatures begin to rebound closer to normal with highs
on Wednesday ranging from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s
south.

Short wave energy in the flow leads to the development of a weak
wave of low pressure that tracks thru the Ohio Valley Thursday night
Friday. A chance of rain showers develops ahead of this system later
Wednesday and increases Thursday with the system moving thru the
area. Temperatures warm a little above normal for the end of the
week with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday and in the
lower and middle 60s Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front continues to lift north this evening bringing showers
to the TAF sites. Initial shower activity should diminish in
coverage as the front progresses north through approximately 0600z.
Between 0600z and 0900z shower and thunderstorm coverage increases
in coverage once again when a weak front moves in from the west.
Fairly widespread moderate shower/storm activity is likely to
persist through 1200z before reducing in coverage and intensity. The
chance for showers will continues through the entire day on
Saturday. A mixture of MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected for the
TAF period however there is tremendous uncertainty surrounding the
ceiling forecast.

Southeasterly winds winds veer to the southwest by 0600z-0900z.
Southwesterly flow persists until a front crosses through the area
around 1800z Saturday shifting winds to the northwest. Southwesterly
LLWS is expected tonight from 0600z-1200z when a LLJ moves overhead.

OUTLOOK...Periods of showers and/or thunderstorms will occur into
Sunday. This will result in MVFR/IFR conditions from time to time.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Campbell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
316 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

OHZ026-034-035-043-044-051930-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-
316 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-KYZ097>100-OHZ042-045-046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
078>082-088-051930-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Darke-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
316 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, south central
Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition, a few strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the
primary severe weather threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ077-051930-
Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Hamilton-
316 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Indiana, northern
Kentucky and southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible after midnight. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the primary severe weather threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition, a few strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the
primary severe weather threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
753 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSE Centerville       39.59N 84.13W
04/03/2025                   Montgomery         OH   NWS Employee

            Trees down on East Social Row. Time
            estimated from RADAR.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
757 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SE Centerville        39.60N 84.12W
04/03/2025                   Montgomery         OH   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 3
            SE Centerville. Trees down on Nutt and Clyo.
            Time estimated from RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
909 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

INZ073>075-080-KYZ091-050145-
Switzerland IN-Ripley IN-Ohio IN-Dearborn IN-Boone KY-
909 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OHIO...RIPLEY...
SOUTHERN DEARBORN...WESTERN SWITZERLAND AND NORTHERN BOONE COUNTIES
THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

At 909 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast of
Madison, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Dillsboro, Center Square, Moores Hill, Aberdeen, Rexville, Cold
Springs, Avonburg, Moorefield, Farmers Retreat, Fairview, Aurora,
Friendship, Osgood, Petersburg, Versailles Lake, French, Vevay,
Wilmington, Mount Sterling, and Jacksonville.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3907 8544 3925 8533 3929 8525 3910 8480
      3875 8504 3874 8506 3874 8507 3875 8520
      3892 8520 3891 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 223DEG 40KT 3887 8533

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Campbell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1105 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

OHZ061-070-071-050330-
Montgomery OH-Warren OH-Butler OH-
1105 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN BUTLER...
NORTHERN WARREN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM
EDT...

At 1105 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Trenton,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail may cause minor damage to vegetation. Visibility will
         be poor and hydroplaning is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Hughes, State Route 63 at State Route 741, Seven Mile,
Williamsdale, Lytle, Beckett Ridge, Carlisle, Maustown, Pekin,
Corwin, Genntown, South Middletown, Olde West Chester, Four Bridges,
Hamilton, Caesar Creek State Park, Middletown, New Miami, and
Oregonia.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 20 and 45.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3966 8423 3960 8411 3958 8411 3958 8405
      3954 8398 3947 8400 3930 8449 3931 8451
      3945 8464
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 240DEG 49KT 3942 8445

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<35 MPH

Hickman

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1121 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Celina            40.55N 84.54W
04/02/2025                   Mercer             OH   Broadcast Media

            Numerous trees down and uprooted. Time
            estimated from RADAR.

&&