Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
210 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
A cold front will move through on Tuesday, bringing with it
additional thunderstorm chances. Mostly dry conditions are expected
for Wednesday and Thursday, with warmer temperatures expected by the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ohio Valley remains in a warm sector with a warm and moist air mass
in place. Atmosphere has become unstable as well which has helped
support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms early this
afternoon. Given the high moisture content, with precipitable water
values near 2 inches, the main threat from storms will be heavy
rainfall. In addition to high rainfall rates, any storms that move
over the same areas may lead to localized instances of flash
flooding. Stronger storms could also produce isolated strong wind
gusts, although this risk looks a little less than previous days
given slightly less favorable instability (including lower expected
DCAPE).

Convection will wane in the evening however can't rule out some
lingering showers into the night. A disturbance/approaching cold
front will bring a better chance or wider coverage of showers across
the Tri-State area close to sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front moves across across the area during the daytime Tuesday.
Expect showers to be ongoing at the beginning of Tuesday across the
Tri-State area, and showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to
move eastward through the morning and afternoon hours. Chances of
rain will decrease from west to east during the afternoon as drier
air starts to move in behind the cold front. Highs will be in the mid
80s.

With drier air and high pressure building in Tuesday night, skies
will become clear with lows down into the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The first completely dry day locally in quite some time is expected
on Wednesday as sfc high pressure and slightly drier/cooler air
builds into the region. This will mark the beginning of a much-
needed reprieve from daily widespread shower/storm chances, with an
opportunity for areas that have been impacted by recent heavy
rain/flooding to dry out a bit. Temps on Wednesday will be slightly
below seasonal norms, which will likely be the only day in the long
term period where the daily averages may be below normal. A warming
trend is expected toward the end of the workweek once again, with
the lone exception to this being the potential for a S/W to drift
into northeast/central OH into late Thursday, which may bring with
it some enhanced cloud cover and slightly "cooler" temps and perhaps
some low-end rain/storm chances as well. But the southern
progression of this feature is far from certain at this juncture,
with trends suggesting that most spots locally will remain dry
through this weekend.

In general, warmer and more humid conditions will return to the area
by this weekend, with dry conditions favored at this juncture. The
next opportunity for more widespread rain/storm chances will hold
off until Monday/Tuesday of next week. Until then, the ILN FA will
feel the impacts of an expanding midlevel ridge across the mid MS
Rvr Vly and wrn OH Vly this weekend, offering seasonably warm and
humid conditions. The combination of heat and humidity may push heat
index values close to 100 degrees by Sunday/Monday, but will wait
until there is a bit more agreement in the data before adding to the
HWO given the uncertainties in the timing of the arrival of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed early
this afternoon in a warm, moist and unstable air mass. Expect a
decent coverage of storms to persist through the rest of the
afternoon, occasionally impacting terminal sites with brief MVFR/IFR
conditions. Coverage should be less this evening, although there is
still a chance of showers, with the potential for some MVFR stratus
to form late tonight. Guidance is showing some continuity in showers
affecting all terminals Tuesday morning as a cold front moves into
the area. The cold frontal passage will lead to a wind shift by
Tuesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...BPP

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