Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
711 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push across the area and off the Carolina
coasts late tonight. Dry conditions and near to above normal
temperatures will return for the mid-week period. The next cold
front will move across the region Thursday, followed by dry
high pressure through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Slight Modifications to the PoP values inland, convection along
the coast is expected to exit Northeast South Carolina by
midnight and several hours later in Southeast North Carolina.
Shower will be possible as the cold front moves across the
region tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front and upper trough will move through the area
tonight, continuing the chance for showers and storms into the
overnight period. After the fropa overnight, the chance for
showers and storms should come to an end. Before then though,
expect scattered showers and isolated storms with the potential
for isolated damaging wind gusts until evening. Lows tonight
will range from the lower 50s west to upper 50s nearer the
coast. Highs Monday will reach the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trof finally slides east off the Carolina Coasts early Mon
evening followed by NW flow sfc thru aloft ushering a secondary
surge of CAA Mon night into Tue. This upper trof will transition
into a cutoff upper low offshore from the SE States and meander
thru the mid-week period before finally getting kick-started off
to the east, further away from the U.S. mainland late Wed.

Sfc winds Mon night should stay active enough thru daybreak Tue
to prevent a nose-dive in temps as well as inhibit frost
formation. As a result, mins will run in the upper 30s to around
40 with sfc dewpoints in the low 30s. Will definitely have to
monitor.

Upper and sfc ridging will dominate Tue thru Wed time frame with
the upper ridge axis overhead Wed, sliding off the Carolina
coasts Wed night. This scenario will play out if the upper
cutoff low finally pushes further out to sea otherwise it could
delay the progression of aforementioned upper wx features.
Will observe a warming trend Tue thru Wed with maxes by Wed 1
to 2 categories above normal. Wed night, the sfc pg tightens-
some well ahead of a cold front while the center of the sfc high
slides southward. Min temps Wed night will likely only drop
into the 50s under active SSW winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An eastward moving cold front will be on the doorsteps of the FA
at the start of this period. This cold front well departed from
its parent sfc low, will push across the FA and off the Carolina
coasts during the day, Thu. It's push eastward aided by a
progressive upper trof. Moisture remains rather diffuse along
it and could only muster a low chance for showers at this time.
Excellent CAA in the wake of the CFP with dry conditions and sfc
high pressure dominating thru Sat. Overall, temps to run below
normal into Sat. Will see lows in the mid to upper 30s Fri
morning but with an active NW-N wind. And again in the mid to
upper 30s for Sat morning lows but with a threat of frost given
more stable conditions at the sfc.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thunderstorms producing a chance of LIFR/IFR conditions through
5 UTC at KILM and 03 UTC at KMYR and KCRE. Only isolated showers
expected over night with MVFR ceilings expected inland
overnight and IFR at the coast. Ceilings will lift to VFR by
mid-morning Monday.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions are expected Monday evening
into Wednesday with possible MVFR from showers ahead of a cold
front on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...S winds 20 to 25 KT this afternoon will shift
to the w-nw overnight and run 10 to 15 KT, perhaps 20 KT at 20
NM, on Monday. Seas of 7 to 10 FT this afternoon will slowly
fall into Monday, perhaps reaching 3 to 6 FT by days end.

Monday Night through Thursday...SCA conditions will be
borderline, mainly from the NW winds associated with the
combined CAA and tightened sfc pg. A cutoff upper low and
captured sfc low will churn offshore from the SE States Coast
thru mid week. There's a possibility the sfc pressure pattern
and gradient could affect portions of the area waters,
especially Cape Fear northward. This will result in slightly
hier windspeeds and/or gusts especially Tue. Will definitely
need to monitor. Otherwise, upper and sfc ridging will dominate
Tue thru Wed with the upper and sfc ridging sliding east of the
waters late Wed. This will be dependent on the meandering
cutoff upper low and it finally pushing east, further away from
the U.S. mainland by late Wed. The next CFP slated for Thu with
modest S-SW winds ahead of it and possible SCA threshold W to NW
winds after the FROPA. Seas will be in subsiding trend into Tue
night then hold steady as long period back swell from the
cutoff low affects the local waters. This will likely dominate
the local waters mid week before the pre-frontal and eventually
post-frontal winds and short period seas increase Wed night into
Thu.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ254-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...RH
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...RH
MARINE...DCH/31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
321 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

AMZ250-252-171930-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
321 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ254-256-171930-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
321 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ110-SCZ054-171930-
Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-
321 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105>109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-056-058-059-
171930-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-
Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-
Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry-
321 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms could bring damaging wind gusts this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.