Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
309 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain stalled across the region through Thursday
bringing  unsettled weather. The boundary will lift north on
Friday brining a downturn in rain coverage before a cold front
Saturday kicks up the coverage again. After a Sunday cooldown
next week will feature a gradual rain-free warmup.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect a pretty active period the next 36 hours with deep moisture
in place and a few boundaries in the area (stalled front, sea
breeze, and differential heating). However, not confident in
development of widespread rainfall at any one time. Mid-level lapse
rates are marginal at best and varying amounts of cloud cover have
limited SBCAPE to around 1000 J/kg(with a few higher pockets) this
afternoon and similar values are expected for Thu. There was a
little more dry air in the low levels this morning based on 12Z
soundings from CHS/MHX than what guidance was anticipating which
likely led to the slightly delayed start. Not expecting this to be
much of an issue for Thu, but something to look for. Storms that do
develop will be capable of producing good rainfall rates.
Precipitable water is AOA the 90th percentile pretty much through
Thu. The freezing layer between 11k-12k ft will allow for a deep
warm cloud layer as the low levels moisten up and LCLs lower. There
will be some weak shortwave influence, although it's weak enough
that by itself it may not be able to generate any convection but it
will help maintain storms that do develop.

What has happened this afternoon, development of isolated storms
along the boundaries with additional storms developing as outflow
from the first round kicks off additional storms, is likely again on
Thu. Although instead of the sea breeze being favored inland SC may
be the more favored location. Coverage will continue to expand as
new storms pop up on outflow into the evening hours (today and Thu)
before convection starts to weaken and dissipate in response to
decreasing instability. It may be a case where the hourly POP is too
high yet the POP across a longer time frame is too low. Rainfall
amounts will be quite variable too given the convective nature of
the activity. Temperatures will continue to run on the warm side of
normal with highs ranging from mid 70s to lower 80s and lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level trough cuts off over NYS on Saturday, its trailing trough
helping to push a cold front through the Carolinas. Models are
surprisingly meager in their QPF, which may adjusted in the future,
and have kept the inherited high chance to low likely POPs at this
time given that the front itself has a good amount of baroclinicity
for later in April.  To that end the airmass change will be quite
noticeable by Sunday and Sunday night. The remainder of the period
features high pressure overhead early Monday shifting offshore to a
true warm season position thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level trough cuts off over NYS on Saturday, its trailing trough
helping to push a cold front through the Carolinas. Models are
surprisingly meager in their QPF, which may adjusted in the future,
and have kept the inherited high chance to low likely POPs at this
time given that the front itself has a good amount of baroclinicity
for later in April.  To that end the airmass change will be quite
noticeable by Sunday and Sunday night. The remainder of the period
features high pressure overhead early Monday shifting offshore to a
true warm season position thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Convection starting to develop along the sea breeze in southeast
NC and this activity should expand south into SC along the sea
breeze in the next hour or so. Anticipate more storms developing
along the weak front moving in from the northwest later this
afternoon at the inland terminals. Storms should continue into
the evening hours before the loss of heating leads to gradually
decreasing coverage. Past midnight the main concern will be
ceiling and visibility restrictions with increasing confidence
in MVFR/IFR conditions developing in the early morning hours.
Anticipate another round of convection on Thu, with inland SC
looking to be favored just as the valid TAF period ends. Light
and variable winds through the TAF period outside of onshore
flow associated with the sea breeze that will bump speeds up
to 10-15 kt at coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...Potential for MVFR/IFR with storms Thursday
afternoon and evening and again later Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...

Ill-defined gradient will persist over the waters through Thu as
Bermuda High remains the main feature. Enhancement of onshore flow
each afternoon and evening in response to the sea breeze is
expected, but otherwise winds will generally be 10 kt or less with
an easterly component. This will keep seas around 2 ft with the
dominant wave being an easterly swell.

Thursday night through Monday... Not much of a gradient in place to
start the period meaning light winds with some sense of directional
variability before a southerly component comes to dominate even if
only weakly. Wind waves then could fall below the 7-9 second E to SE
swell in regards to power. SW flow picks up Saturday as cold front
approaches, flow then turning to N and NE on Sunday steepening wave
faces as period shorten. Considerable veering on Monday as the post-
frontal high starts overhead but progresses offshore rather
quickly.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
317 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059-
241930-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-
Coastal Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
317 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible this afternoon through
mid-evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-254-256-241930-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
317 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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