Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Wilmington, NC

608 
WGUS72 KILM 280358
FFSILM

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1158 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025

NCC019-280600-
/O.CON.KILM.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250528T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brunswick NC-
1158 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY...

At 1158 PM EDT, local law enforcement reported thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 6 inches 
of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are 
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Oak Island, Caswell Beach, St. James, Southport and Dosher 
  Memorial Hospital.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dangerous flooding from heavy rainfall can be expected, especially 
near poor drainage areas and other flood prone locations. It is 
harder to recognize flood dangers at night, as it will be difficult 
to determine the depth of the water. Roads may be damaged or washed 
away. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. If flooding is observed, 
then turn around, don't drown.

&&

LAT...LON 3394 7803 3393 7799 3389 7802 3389 7803
      3389 7804 3389 7805 3394 7809

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

LEW

271 
WGUS72 KILM 280546
FFSILM

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
146 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025

NCC019-280556-
/O.CAN.KILM.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250528T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brunswick NC-
146 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK 
COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

Additional heavy rain could fall overnight.

&&

LAT...LON 3394 7803 3393 7799 3389 7802 3389 7803
      3389 7804 3389 7805 3394 7809

$$

LEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
954 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will bring unsettled weather through tonight.
The low will lift north of the area Wednesday, with unsettled
weather remaining in the forecast through end of the week. A
cold front will cross the area late Friday, followed by drier
weather for next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Weak trough just inland from the coast helped initiate convection
during the late afternoon hours. This activity then moved east-
southeast pushing offshore during the last few hours. Convection
will linger offshore overnight as elevated convection moves in from
the west. Activity offshore will continue overnight with potential
for a few storms to move onshore. Storms moving in from the west
will continue to weaken as they move into a less favorable
environment. Made adjustment to timing and coverage to try and
account for convective evolution the next 6-12 hours, but overall
forecast thinking has not changed. Potential for low clouds and rain
inland while along the coast showers and thunderstorms will be
possible from time to time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Stalled frontal boundary sits south of our forecast area as of
3 PM, but observations show this boundary is gradually shifting
northward. As for rainfall this evening, HREF members have been
consistent in keeping the axis of heaviest rainfall just off of
our coast. These members have also been consistently producing
heavy rain in convection where no instability exists according
to the SPC mesoanalysis, so their initialization has
consistently produced questions throughout the day. This has led
to uncertainty in where heavy rain, if any, will develop
tonight.

Given the lack of instability and general trend in a lower QPF
forecast for this evening, I have ended the Flood Watch. Heavy
rain may be possible along the NC coast this evening, but should
be brief. ILM is currently at a 5.2 inch rainfall deficit since
January 1st. Recent warming has pushed soil temperatures into
the low and mid 70s. This means that soils should handle any
rainfall quite well. In addition, the lack of instability (as
observed over storms within the Gulf Stream waters earlier
today) are unlikely to generate a sufficient rainfall rate for
significant flooding concerns.

A weak shortwave will push low pressure off to the north and
east on Wednesday morning. Some scattered showers are possible
(due to an unseasonable depth of saturation) in the wake of the
upper trough and trailing low. Showers should come to an end by
mid morning as dry air trickles in from the west.

The bulk of upper level moisture will be confined east of I-95
on Wednesday afternoon. With cloud cover finally departing
earlier in the day, warmer temperatures should generate
afternoon instability. Showers and thunderstorms should be
focused near the sea breeze during the early afternoon before
spreading inland through eastern SC. Upstream convection could
produce a few outflows and additional coverage over southern and
central SC. Confidence in coverage is low for now, hopefully
models come into better agreement before tonight's forecast
package. Highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low will be moving northeast across Mid-Atlantic coast
Wednesday night, with mostly dry weather expected locally as dry
air aloft moves in. Lows in the upper 60s. Plenty of high
clouds Thursday, but will have enough warming to bring us back
to near- normal temps in the mid 80s. Rain chances increase
Thursday afternoon, particularly for NE SC, as deep moisture is
advected from the southwest ahead of a strong upper shortwave.
Forecast soundings show enough instability for scattered
thunderstorms. Rain chances linger into Thursday night as deep
moisture remains and aforementioned shortwave moves across. Lows
in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Friday will be the most active day of the long term period.
Plenty of moisture and instability in the WAA regime ahead of an
approaching cold front will support scattered thunderstorms
during the day. Severe storms may be possible Friday due to
elevated shear associated with deep trough to the west, during
the day with scattered storms and along the cold front. Will
have to keep an eye on cloud coverage early Friday for the
scattered severe potential during the day, as lingering overcast
skies could bust the instability forecast.

Cold front progged to move across late Friday, with cooler and
drier weather forecasted for Friday night. Below normal temps
Saturday and Saturday night will warm a bit for Sunday into
early next week. Predominantly weather behind the cold front for
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warm front will lift north of the area tonight, although the
inland wedge will keep inland terminals in the cooler, more
stable air. High confidence in prolonged period of IFR ceilings
and perhaps some light showers closer to daybreak at FLO/LBT.
Along the coast a mix of MVFR/IFR will exist for much of the night
with both ceilings and visibility dipping into the IFR category
at times as heavier showers affect the terminals. Once the warm
front lifts north MVFR will become the dominant category, but it
may take until near daybreak before the warm front lifts north
and ceilings improve. More typical May pattern with scattered
afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms Wed as a trough lingers
in the region.

Extended Outlook...Periodic IFR/MVFR possible in storms each day
through Friday, confidence in timing and details is low. VFR
returns this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...As a frontal boundary lifts north of the
area overnight, easterly winds will gradually veer to the south.
Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage this evening and
overnight. Behind this frontal boundary, synoptic winds will be
weaker, around 10-15 knots on Wednesday. Aggravated 4-6 foot
seas for NC waters will continue into Wednesday morning and thus
the SCA will continue until seas subside late tonight or early
Wednesday. Light winds are expected by tomorrow evening.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...Winds remain fairly light
out of the southwest Wednesday night through Thursday as surface
low moves across the Mid-Atlantic coast and weak pressure
pattern develops locally. Seas 2-3 ft, primarily due to
persisting E swell. Southwest flow begins to increase Thursday
night into Friday as a cold front approaches, with the front
expected to move across the waters sometime Friday night. Seas
increase in response during the day Friday, peaking Friday night
before SSW fresh swell begins to weaken. Winds out of the W/WSW
for Saturday behind the front. Best chance for thunderstorms
over the waters will be Thursday night and late Friday, with
lower chances during the day.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...III
MARINE...VAO/21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
953 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025

NCZ106-108-290200-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-
953 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

The moderate risk of rip currents may continue into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ110-290200-
Coastal Brunswick-
953 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ054-056-290200-
Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
953 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ107-290200-
Inland New Hanover-
953 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Minor coastal flooding along the banks of the lower Cape Fear River
from Wilmington southward with evening high tides through mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-099-105-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-
055-058-059-290200-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland Brunswick-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry-
953 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters,
southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.