Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
143 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon-evening, and again
  Monday afternoon-evening.

- Quiet weather Tuesday-Wednesday.

- More active weather possibly as early as Wednesday night, but
  especially late week through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:

A sharpening dryline over western KS/OK amidst increasing large-
scale ascent as a deep upper trough approaches from the west will be
the focus thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather this
afternoon through evening. Combination of strong instability and
vertical shear will support severe thunderstorms capable of all
severe hazards. Timing for the greatest severe threat will be from
generally 5/6pm through midnight/2am.

The first area of storms is beginning to form over northern-eastern
OK and southern KS within a zone of strengthening deep warm/moist
advection on leading edge of richer moisture return. Thinking this
area will continue to expand northeastward into portions of central
and eastern Kansas this afternoon. Primary threat with strongest
activity will be isolated large hail given elevated nature of
parcels.

The 2nd area of storms (and the ones that have the greatest
potential for "higher-end" severe weather) are expected to initiate
further west along and ahead of the dryline over western-southwest
KS and points south later this afternoon into early evening, with
this activity tracking east-northeast thereafter. Long and
cyclonically curved hodographs along with deep layer shear oriented
perpendicular to the dryline supports supercells, capable of large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

The main question is how far east can these supercells remain near
surface-based (and have an associated tornado risk) due to
widespread clouds inhibiting surface heating further east across
generally the eastern half of Kansas. Latest guidance supports the
greatest risk for tornadoes generally southwest of a line extending
from Russell to Hutchinson to Wellington where convective inhibition
will be weakest and low-level buoyancy the highest. That said, do
not want to discount a conditional tornado threat further east
through the Flint Hills through late evening, as very rich boundary
layer moisture advecting into the area may weaken the cap
sufficiently for tornadoes, especially if supercells can remain
discrete further east amidst an increasing low-level jet and
enlarging low-level hodographs. The overall environment this evening
is volatile, supporting the potential for a few strong tornadoes
(EF2+) across the region.

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING:

Round two arrives Monday afternoon and persists through the evening,
as a dryline/cold front combo sharpens near the I-135 corridor, and
a deep upper trough approaches from the west. Ample deep layer shear
and instability will once again support the potential for severe
storms. Unlike today, deep layer shear vectors Monday are oriented
more parallel to the dryline/cold front, in addition to more
pronounced upper forcing and mid-level cooling. Consequently, storm
mode may tend to be a bit messier which could limit the overall
potential for higher-end severe weather. However, long and straight
hodographs in conjunction with the strong buoyancy could support
splitting supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Could
see a few tornadoes as well, especially with any storms that can
remain at least semi-discrete and tracks to the right of the
hodograph.

ACTIVE PATTERN POSSIBLY RETURNING BY LATE WEEK:

The pattern could turn favorable for periodic storm chances
returning by Wednesday night, but especially late week into early
next week, as west-northwest flow aloft develops over the region.
This pattern probably would not be as favorable for tornadoes, but
could definitely support periodic bouts of large hail and damaging
winds, along with locally heavy rainfall. Stay tuned as we refine
forecast details in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

First potential of scattered showers/storms will move southwest
to northeast across central and eastern portions of Kansas this
afternoon, within a zone of increasing deep warm/moist
advection. A hail threat may accompany the strongest storms. The
2nd round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms will arrive
from the west around 23-01z, as a dryline sharpens over western
Kansas. A very favorable combination of strong instability and
vertical shear will support severe storms capable of all severe
weather hazards.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
302 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-192015-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
302 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across central
and eastern Kansas. Isolated large hail may accompany this
activity.

By early this evening, another area of thunderstorms is expected to
move in from the west and southwest, affecting much of the area
through late evening. Hail up to tennis ball size, damaging winds to
70 mph and tornadoes will be possible with the stronger storms.
While the greatest tornado threat will be roughly southwest of a
line extending from Russell to Hutchinson to Wellington, cannot rule
out a few tornadoes as far east as the Flint Hills through late
evening. The storm threat should exit east of the region by midnight
to 2 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Another round of severe storms is likely Monday afternoon and
evening, primarily along and east of Interstate 135. The stronger
storms will be capable of golf ball size hail, damaging downburst
winds and a couple tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through the evening areawide, and
again Monday afternoon and evening generally along and east of
I-135.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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