Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
226 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of central and
  south-central KS this afternoon; additional development possible
  this evening and tonight

- More storm chances Wednesday morning and Thursday morning; small
  rain chances for late weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

As of 2 PM, numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across
portions of central and south-central KS. These are due in part to a
persistent low-mid level WAA pattern. The duration of these storms
has been due to the large scale midlevel trough remaining well-west
across northeast CO and the mean flow is orthogonal to the initiation
zone. Latest WV reveals the main shortwave trough is ejecting into
northwest KS and is gradually shifting the axis of rainfall east and
southeast. Thus far, MRMS is suggesting upwards of 12" of rain has
fallen over portions of Lincoln, Ellsworth, and Saline counties.
Fortunately, the heaviest rain is shifting out of these areas.

The LLJ will strengthen overnight from the eastern TX Panhandle
through southeast NE. This may provide another focal point for WAA
driven showers and storms along and east of the KS Turnpike. PW up
to 1.5" once again will support heavy rainfall. Another
night/morning of WAA driven convection is possible late Tuesday
through Wednesday morning with the best chances west of I-135. The
midlevel ridge will slide across the area Thursday into the upcoming
weekend. A strong midlevel trough will eject into the northern
Plains late Saturday into Sunday, shunting a cold front towards the
area for Sunday. The overall pattern will become dominate by an
omega block with troughing in the western and eastern CONUS with
ridging across the Plains. This is should lead to mostly dry
conditions with seasonal temperatures next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Widespread SHRA and TSRA continues across portions of central
and south-central KS. This activity will continue to impact SLN
and HUT through mid-afternoon. These showers will reach ICT
within the hour. More-isolated activity continues to develop in
the vicinity of GBD and may continue to do so into the mid-
afternoon hours. Confidence greatly decreases into the late
afternoon and evening hours as forecast models are really
struggling with the current evolution. There remains the
potential that SHRA and TSRA persists beyond mid-afternoon and
into the evening hours. Short term trends must be monitored into
the afternoon and evening hours. Additional SHRA and TSRA are
possible late tonight across eastern KS and may impact CNU but
confidence remains too low for anything beyond a PROB30.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-091930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across parts of
central and south-central Kansas into this evening. Severe weather
is not expected with this activity, though a brief stronger storm is
possible with marginally severe hail and heavy rain which may lead
to localized flooding concerns.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may redevelop this evening into
Tuesday morning, especially over eastern Kansas, with the strongest
activity capable of small hail and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A thunderstorm or two is possible mainly west of Interstate 135
late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Additional storms are
possible late Wednesday into Thursday morning along and north of
Interstate 70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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