Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
237 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms will continue this afternoon
  into the evening hours.

- Below normal temps will remain in place, with a reinforcing
  shot of cooler air arriving Wed evening.

- Additional rain and storm chances arrive Wednesday afternoon
  and evening with the frontal boundary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Currently, a large upper trough dominates the eastern half of the
country with ridging to our west. An upper-level impulse over
Nebraska will slowly shift south over the next 24 hours. At the
surface, this translates to a weak low situated across northern
Kansas with substantial low-level moisture surging northward
leading to PWATs around 1.5". As the meso low dips southward
this afternoon, it will be the focus of shower and thunderstorm
development in central and south-central Kansas. There remains
some severe potential for today's activity as instability
reaches to between 1000-1500 J/kg and bulk shear nears 30 kts in
some locations. Much of the eastern half of Kansas has remained
socked in clouds, but locations generally west of I-135 where
they've been able to get some decent sun and heating have the
better chances of a stronger storm or two.

Today's activity will be mainly diurnally driven and storms will
diminish shortly after sunset. A few showers will remain into the
overnight hours, but as the upper level impulse moves south out
of the area by Tuesday morning, much drier air will filter into
the region. Tuesday is shaping up to be an extremely pleasant
day with highs in the middle to upper 70s and clearing skies.

For the middle to end of the week, a deep upper-level low pressure
system looks to dive into the Great Lakes Region once again. This
will send another push of cooler air and rain chances into the
Plains. Ahead of this frontal boundary, temperatures will rebound
slightly on Wednesday with highs reaching into the middle to upper
80s across the forecast area. The frontal boundary will dive into
the area on Wednesday afternoon bringing a marginal risk of severe
weather to the area for the late afternoon and evening hours. For
Thursday and Friday, it looks like there will be a another
reinforcing shot of cooler air that will maintain temperatures in
the 70s through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

MVFR CIGS will remain stubborn for much of the period with only
a period of VFR possible this afternoon. A few showers and
storms are possible this afternoon into the evening but coverage
only allows for a PROB30 mention at this time. Short term trends
will need to be monitored for any prevailing TSRA periods
needed. A weak cold front will shift winds from the
north/northwest at 5-10 kt overnight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...BRF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
437 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-022145-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
437 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the region through
the evening hours. The strongest activity will be capable of small
hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall, which may lead to some
localized minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms will return to the forecast for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A few strong storms will be possible with this
activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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