Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
710 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storms are expected to develop later this afternoon
  and continue into the day on Friday.

- Flood Watch issued for portions of central and south-central KS
  from 7 PM today through 7 PM Friday

- The potential for extreme heat returns late this weekend into next
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

A weak midlevel trough is currently situated across the Northern and
Central Plains with an associated stalled frontal boundary extending
across central Kansas. This boundary will be the focal point of
storm development later this afternoon and into the evening and
overnight hours. Upon initial development this afternoon, steep low-
level lapse rates and moderate instability will support a few strong
to severe storms that would be capable of some gusty winds.

As we move into the evening and overnight hours and daytime heating
is lost, the severe potential will also diminish. However, rain and
storms are expected to persist into the overnight hours. With PWAT
values in excess of 2 inches across the area, the main threat
overnight will be locally heavy rain and flooding. Heavy rainfall
looks to diminish by daybreak on Friday with scattered rain and
thunderstorm chances lingering into the day generally from Hwy 50
northward. General rainfall amounts between 2-3 inches can be
expected for central and south-central KS with some locations seeing
in excess of 4". A Flood Watch remains in effect for much of the
area from 7pm this evening through Friday afternoon. A few showers
and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, but the
better forcing for storms will be further northeast across northeast
KS and northwest MO.

As one might suspect, with a frontal boundary in place, widespread
rain chances along with cloud cover, temperatures today and tomorrow
will run slightly cooler compared to the past week. Highs across the
area will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows falling
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For this weekend and beyond, the midlevel ridge will shift back
westward and will be centered directly over the Central Plains. This
means the return of heat and drier weather for the end of the
weekend and into early next week. Highs look to reach into the upper
90s to lower 100s areawide. Dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s
to lower 70s leading to higher humidity values which will exacerbate
the heat concerns with elevated Heat Index values.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

The main concern to aviation is showers and thunderstorms. While
there are ongoing storms in the area, the exact timing at
terminal sites is difficult. Widely scattered storms are
expected to increase in coverage, so a PROB30 has been added to
all sites. VFR conditions are expected with reduced cigs/vis as
storms occur. Heavy rainfall will reduce visibility to IFR
conditions as storms move through. MVFR ceilings are likely at
RSL and GBD after 08z, diminishing around 18z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for KSZ048>053-067>070-082-
083.

&&

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...GC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
225 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-251930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
225 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heat indices above 100 degrees are expected across portions of
south-central and southeast Kansas this afternoon.

More widespread thunderstorm activity is expected this evening into
the overnight hours, especially across portions of central and
south-central Kansas. Heavy rainfall is the primary concern
tonight. Refer to the Flood Watch for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into the day on
Friday.

Heat indices above 100 degrees are possible Friday across
south-central and southeast Kansas. Heat indices above 100 degrees
are possible areawide Saturday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict