Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms possible tonight mainly in central
  KS.

- Hot and humid conditions with mostly dry weather are expected
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Currently, there is a surface low extending from eastern CO to
western SD with a warm front draping down from eastern NE to central
MO. In our area, southerly flow at the surface persists resulting in
dewpoints in the mid 70s and temperatures in the upper 80s to lower
90s. This evening, instability will increase as surface heating
amplifies and moisture continues to build. As we move into the
overnight hours, this axis of instability will shift north with the
better instability staying north and east of our area. As the LLJ
increases tonight, an axis of convergence will set up in
northern Kansas. Given the limited forcing, low chances of
showers and storms will remain in central KS. Low temperatures
will drop to the low to mid 70s.

On Saturday, a frontal boundary will move towards the KS/NE border
keeping southerly flow at the surface in our area. High temperatures
are expected to rise into the mid to upper 90s with areas in central
Kansas around 100. Low-level upslope flow in eastern CO will help
initiate storms Saturday afternoon to evening with the expectation
of eastward propagation. Given decent instability is expected in
northern Kansas, it is possible that a storm may reach central KS.
However, strong inhibition will limit chances with the potential
that storms will diminish as they move into the area.

With the mid-level ridge slightly amplifying on Sunday as it shifts
towards the Mississippi Valley, thickness will continue to increase.
High temperatures on Sunday will be similar to Saturday with highs
in the upper 90s to the lower 100s. On Sunday night, low
precipitation chances will be possible in central KS as an embedded
weak ripple is expected to ride the upper/mid-level ridge combined
with an increasing LLJ.

Monday-Friday... Starting early next week, model consensus supports
the upper-level ridge amplifying more, allowing heights to continue
rising. With southerly flow persisting, hot and humid conditions are
expected daily. Overnight lows are expected to stay warm with most
areas in the mid to upper 70s. Upper-level flow will steer some
shortwave troughs into the Central High Plains making low
precipitation chances possible through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Only a few isolated showers remain early this afternoon across
southeast Kansas however these will remain east of CNU.
VFR conditions have returned to all terminals and are expected
to remain so through the remainder of this TAF period. A few
isolated showers and thunderstorms may try to develop across
central Kansas late this afternoon and evening however
confidence on a direct impact at any one site remains too low
to include a mention in the TAF at this time. Winds
approximately 1000 ft above ground will ramp up late tonight
leading to a period of LLWS at most terminals through tomorrow
morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...WI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
339 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-192045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
339 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few additional storms are possible this afternoon, especially
across central and south central Kansas. The strongest storms may
produce wind gusts up to 60 mph and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Small storm chances, mainly at night, exist over the next week.
Widespread severe weather is not expected.

Heat indices will climb above 100 degrees Saturday through
Thursday across much of the area. An Extreme Heat Warning is in
effect from 2 PM Saturday until 7 PM Wednesday and may need to be
extended in future updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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