Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
229 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible this afternoon through
tonight, with continued chances for rain through the middle of next
week.

- A minor cooldown arrives this weekend before a brief warmup to
start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates a mid/upper shortwave
moving through the Central Plains while a stronger wave begins to
encroach on the Northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
draped from northeast Kansas to the Oklahoma Panhandle as a second
cold front spans from the Dakotas to the Nebraska Panhandle. A
handful of showers were observed in the pre-frontal zone of the
Kansas boundary as it progressed through the state this morning.
Short-range guidance suggests this will provide forcing for broader
coverage of showers and storms later this afternoon and evening over
southeast Kansas, where better instability and higher PW values
reside. Limited deep-layer shear should largely preclude chances for
large hail, though a few quarter sized hailstones can't be ruled out
in the strongest storms considering CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg
across the area. Otherwise, the primary threat through the evening
hours will likely remain strong/damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

PRECIPITATION:

Models continue to stall out the front over southeast Kansas tonight
into Saturday, which will provide continued rain chances throughout
the area through the weekend. Limited severe potential is expected
with this activity considering warm mid-level temperatures. Still
appears that southern Kansas will see the best chances for
precipitation through Sunday. Could see a few showers making their
way into central Kansas Saturday, but the main activity should
primarily stay along/south of US-54/400.

Chances for rain will continue through at least the middle of next
week given weak ripples in mid/upper flow. Southeast Kansas appears
to have the best chances for showers and storms through Tuesday
before yet another shortwave brings a cold front into the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will cause rain chances to once
again return to a majority of the region and keep the active pattern
in place through at least Thursday.

TEMPERATURES:

Following today's heat, the cold front moving through the region
will result in slightly cooler highs this weekend (middle 80s to low
90s) before a brief warmup to start the work week (upper 80s and
upper 90s). A cold front progressing through the area on Tuesday
will bring mid-week high temperatures back to near-normal, with
readings near 90 anticipated to close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. A weak
cold front is moving through the area, shifting winds to the
northwest at 5-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt. These
wind speeds will decrease to 5-12 kt by 04Z. A few storms are
possible across south-central and eastern KS this afternoon and
evening. Confidence remains too low for any prevailing and have
maintained the PROB30 groups at ICT and CNU.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...BRF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
243 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-121945-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
243 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms capable of 60 mph winds, hail
up to quarter size, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible
late this afternoon and evening.

Heat indices are expected to climb to around 100 this afternoon
across much of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorm chances will persist through the weekend and into much
of next week. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
through the period along with locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict