Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1242 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms possible late tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Strong to severe storms likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
  night.

- Dry and warm to close out the week before rain chances return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon highlights strong mid/upper
flow over the Great Basin behind a weak shortwave traversing the
Plains. The beginnings of a weak surface trough is positioned from
northeast Colorado to northeast Nebraska, while southerly winds have
been observed over Kansas thus far today.

.TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING...

Storm development continues to be anticipated per short-term
consensus along the aforementioned surface trough this afternoon.
Shear vector orientation suggests this will quickly grow upscale
into an MCS, with steering influenced by the LLJ later this evening
into the overnight hours. Model trends continue to suggest this
activity will make it further south than originally thought, so
chances for rain have been brought as far south as the Kansas-
Oklahoma border through mid-morning. Currently thinking activity may
make it as far east as the Flint Hills before the LLJ weakens, so
not feeling too bullish on storms making it too far into far
southeast KS. With solid instability (> 2500 J/kg) and DCAPE (> 1000
J/kg), the primary threats with these storms look to be strong winds
and heavy rainfall.

.TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The surface trough is progged to move into central and northeast
Kansas throughout the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. MLCAPE
exceeding 3000 J/kg continues to appear likely out ahead of the
boundary, and with effective shear in the 30-40 kt range, the
environment will initially be conducive to supercells capable of
strong winds, large hail, a few tornadoes, and heavy rainfall. The
exact location of this initial development remains a bit uncertain
at this point as outflow from the morning MCS is expected to be the
forcing mechanism for storms ahead of the surface trough. If
tonight's system is able to maintain itself further south than
expected, it may favor development in areas as far south as the US-
400 corridor. However, some short-term models highlight development
as far north as the I-70 corridor before these are swept to the
southeast as the surface boundary moves through. All told, activity
is ultimately expected to grow upscale into a second MCS heading
into the late evening and overnight hours as the system slowly
propagates to the east. This slow propagation along with outflow
touching off additional convection may further provide flooding
concerns overnight into Wednesday morning. The latest CAM ensembles
carry this MCS through southeast KS before it dissipates over
southwest MO late Wednesday morning.

.WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY...

Looking ahead toward the end of the week, mid/upper ridging resumes
and is expected to lead to warm and dry conditions. Long-range
models then hint at the ridge sliding east by the weekend, bringing
southwest flow aloft back to the region and the potential for rain
to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The main aviation concern over the next 24 hours is the
potential for multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms.
The first round is currently across north-central KS and slowly
moving east and southeast. Introduced TEMPO groups for reduced
VSBY and gusty winds as the storms arrive. This initial round
should end by mid to late morning. Additional storm development
is expected by mid to late afternoon. These may develop
near/overhead at RSL/SLN/GBD with large hail and damaging winds
possible. As the evening progresses, these will form into a line
of storms are race through the remaining terminals during the
late afternoon and evening. Finally, wind speed and direction
may become VRB in the afternoon along I-70 with the main
frontal zone stalling very near each terminal.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...BRF

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