Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
328 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening
mainly in south central and southeast Kansas.

- Dry weather pattern Monday through Wednesday.

- Chances for on-and-off showers/storms by Wednesday night or
Thursday and persisting through next weekend.

- Increasing heat and humidity possible for late next weekend into
next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Changes:

1) Quicker timing of cold front - adjusted precip chances accordingly

2) Precipitation chances this week

3) Slightly lower dewpoints next weekend

A trough over central Canada and the Plains tracks southeast and its
associated cold front continues to drop south through Kansas. There
is the surface cold front that stretches from Wellington to Eureka
to just south of Kansas City which is moving a little quicker than
previously anticipated. Visible satellite is starting to indicate
cumulus development along the frontal boundary from Harper to Allen
counties. The SPC mesoanalysis page has started to show a break in
the CIN (inhibition) in southeast Kansas which is of course ahead of
the front. There is 20-35kts of bulk shear with CAPE at 3k J/kg.
Convective development has begun with scattered showers and storms
depicted on radar. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with
the main threats being wind gusts up to 70 mph and up to golf ball
sized hail. Locally heavy rainfall remains a concern especially over
the saturated surfaces of this same area which could quickly lead to
additional flooding or enhance any residual/ongoing flooding.
This activity should push to the southeast and exit by early
evening.

The secondary boundary is behind and stretching across northern
Kansas; scattered showers and isolated storms have developed
and persisted along this boundary tracking east southeast. There
is one storm that moved into north central Kansas this
afternoon from Russell and is heading towards Salina. Minimal
concerns are anticipated with this activity other than
lightning, brief moderate to heavy rain and small hail.

After a fairly active last week, a ridge moves into the central
CONUS from the Mountain West for the start of the week. This will
allow things to dry out for a few days before the next system pushes
in for the latter half of the week. High temperatures are forecast
to be in the lower 80s to lower 90s for this week. The next chances
for showers and storms move in late Wednesday into next weekend; on
and off chances of storms are anticipated. There is weak flow as
mentioned in the previous discussion, so severe storms are not
expected. Plenty of time for changes to occur in this part of the
forecast. It continues to be highlighted, an increase in available
moisture with dewpoints rising into the 70s combined with
temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s could result in heat indices
approaching the triple digit mark next week. Dewpoints are slightly
lower given the latest NBM for the weekend. The expectation is still
to have that reminder of what summer should feel like.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

A Strong cold front continues to advance southward passing
through KHUT and approaching KICT. Widely scattered storms are
expected to develop ahead of the front in the next hour or so
with some becoming severe. Impacts to KHUT/KICT may not occur if
storm initiation is delayed another few hours but wanted to
include prob30 group as storms could develop at any time. A few
showers are passing to the north of KSLN but continued
development to the southwest is possible impacting KSLN. KCNU
will most likely have the best chances but with storms being
widely scattered did not feel confident enough to bring on
station. Winds will be gusty from the north after frontal
passage but subsiding with VFR conditions expected for the
remainder of the evening as the front continues its push into
Oklahoma.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Juanita
AVIATION...SGS

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