Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
1243 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and storms tonight through early
  Saturday, especially over southern Kansas.

- Additional chance for rain Sunday evening with the better
  chances in southeast Kansas

- Quiet and dry conditions expected Monday through Wednesday
  with rain chances increasing on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Currently, there is a longwave trough extending from the Northern
Plains to off the coast of California with multiple embedded
shortwave troughs, resulting in westerly flow aloft in our area.

Tonight, a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest, providing
another opportunity for showers and storms overnight into Saturday
morning. As the warm front lifts north near the KS/OK border,
moisture and instability increase. Dewpoints are expected to climb
into the upper 60s with values of MUCAPE generally between 1000-1500
J/kg. With ample deep layer shear and instability, severe storms are
possible. The main impacts would be 60 mph winds, nickel sized hail,
and heavy rainfall. The best storm chances are likely in south-
central to southern KS with the heaviest rainfall expected in
Kingman, Harper and Sumner counties.

Continuing into the weekend, flow aloft will start to shift more
westerly to northwesterly Saturday afternoon and continue into
Sunday. Temperatures will continue to rise with highs climbing into
the mid to upper 80s on Sunday, though it won’t last as a cold front
is expected to move through Sunday night. With this cold front, an
additional chance for rainfall is possible Sunday evening into
Monday morning. Model guidance has decent instability and deep layer
shear, making strong to severe storms possible with the better
chances in southeast Kansas. Uncertainty is high at this time due to
model discrepancy, stay tuned for forecast updates.

By Monday night, ridging builds into the Great Plains with its
associated surface high keeping conditions quiet and dry through
Wednesday. After Wednesday, flow aloft becomes more southerly to
southwesterly along with southerly flow returning at the surface.
With moisture transport increasing going into Thursday, showers and
storms are possible Thursday though this forecast will be refined as
it gets closer. Temperatures throughout the week are expected to be
near normal with most highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A line of showers and storms will march eastward across
the region during the overnight hours. A few of the storms
could produce brief periods of heavy rainfall and reduced
visibilities. Otherwise the line of storms is expected to
push east of southeast Kansas by daybreak. Some low clouds
will fill in behind the line of storms and should quickly
scatter out by mid to late morning with light westerly winds
through the day.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ082-091>093-
098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...ICT
AVIATION...TOP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
328 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-072030-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
328 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight over
mainly southern Kansas. Nickel size hail and 60 mph winds may
accompany the strongest activity. Additionally, more heavy rain is
possible, which may aggravate ongoing flooding concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Showers and storms may linger over southeast Kansas Saturday
morning.

Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
Sunday evening through early Monday over mainly southern Kansas. A
few strong to severe storms are possible with the better chances in
southeast Kansas. Stay tuned for later forecasts.

After dry weather Monday through Wednesday, chances for
thunderstorms increase Wednesday night into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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