River Flood Warning 93, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
159 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue this morning;
  flash-flooding possible

- Additional showers and storms possible this weekend into next
  week

- The stretch of below-normal temperatures will continue through
  the weekend and into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

As of 2 AM Thursday morning, multiple focal points for convection
are ongoing across portions of central and southern KS. The most
impactful for our area is a LLJ convergence zone from Barton
County through eastern Harper County. Slow-moving thunderstorms
are anchored along this axis with storm motions to the east
around 10 mph. Though, latest radar trends suggest storms across
Reno County are beginning to propagate more southeastward. This
is more-parallel to the convergence zone and increases the
potential for training convection and flash-flooding. MRMS 1
hour rainfall estimates suggest anywhere from 1 to 2" of
rainfall is common. This zone is likely to gain additional
forcing for ascent from a passing MCV across west-central KS.
All of that to say, the forecast remains on track with
widespread 1-3" expected across central, south-central, and
southeast KS. Locally higher amounts are expected, especially
within this axis across portions of Barton, Rice, McPherson,
Reno, Harvey, Sedgwick, and Butler counties.

The second area of convection is ongoing across portions of
northwest OK and southwest KS. This is on the nose of a 35-40 kt
LLJ. This convergence axis may extend into south-central KS later
this morning with the potential for additional showers and storms.
Again, the main concern will be heavy rainfall and flash-flooding.

Broad low-level WAA will continue into the early afternoon hours
across most of the area. As such, scattered showers will remain
possible into the afternoon. The WAA pattern will weaken throughout
the afternoon and evening, ending rain chances by the evening hours.
Persistent low clouds and occasional showers will hold
temperatures in the upper 60s or low 70s this afternoon.

Beyond Thursday, shortwave midlevel ridging will spill into the
Plains, allowing temperatures to inch closer to 80, though still
below normal for late August. The next potential for rainfall
arrives late Saturday into Sunday as a weak perturbation ejects into
the Plains. The active weather pattern may persist into next week as
northwesterly flow remains parked across the Plains with
perturbations ejecting from the northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Poor aviation conditions will prevail across the region during
the overnight and morning hours on Thursday with LIFR/IFR cigs
and widespread showers/storms with heavy rain at times. The low
clouds will linger across the region and gradually rise into the
IFR category by the afternoon. Showers and storms will shift
east of southeast Kansas by around 12pm with residual low clouds
remaining over the region.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ048>053-
067>072-082-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...CDJ

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