Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Wichita, KS

685 
WWUS83 KICT 210829
RFWICT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
329 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100-220000-
/O.CON.KICT.FW.W.0005.250321T1500Z-250322T0000Z/
Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-
Labette-
329 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* Very High to Extreme Grassland Fire Danger is forecast.

* Winds...West to southwest at 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 
  mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 18 percent.

* Impacts...Any fires that develop will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this fire weather product.

&&

$$

106 
WWUS83 KICT 212353
RFWICT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
653 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100-220100-
/O.EXP.KICT.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-250322T0000Z/
Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-
Labette-
653 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

The extreme grassland fire danger risk has ended with winds
diminishing across the region, therefore the Red Flag Warning 
will expire at 7 PM.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1216 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather concerns Friday through Sunday each afternoon.

- Chance of showers and storms along and east of the Kansas Turnpike
late Saturday into early Sunday.

- Temperatures expected to remain seasonably mild to warm over the
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Satellite and upper air analysis show the powerful system that
brought strong winds and blizzard conditions to much of the central
plains is making its way across the eastern CONUS early this
morning. In it's wake, a cooler and dry post-frontal regime is
dominating much of the forecast area. However, temperatures this
afternoon are still expected to be seasonably mild with widespread
50s and 60s. Some snow-covered areas north of I-70 may only rise
into the upper 40s. Unfortunately, dry air will continue to persist
across the area, and breezy conditions all weekend accompanied with
this dry air will support very high grassland fire danger across
much of the area each afternoon Friday through Sunday. However, this
will not be a repeat of the past couple of events; still outdoor
burning is still discouraged each afternoon as fires may spread
quickly once they get started.

There continues to be a signal for shower and storm chances late
Saturday into early Sunday across portions of the Flint Hills and
southeast Kansas. Guidance suggests an amplifying trough across the
northern Rockies will dig into the central Plains on Saturday and
trigger a low-to-mid level response with southerly flow returning to
the central plains. As a result, the nose of mid-level moisture
transport will overlap with WAA aloft and steepening mid-level lapse
rates to create a window of opportunity for scattered elevated
thunderstorms along and east of the Kansas Turnpike Saturday night
into Sunday morning. So far, the traditional global models suggest
instability may be meager limiting the severity of any storm that
develops. However, the NAM (which can be pretty good at picking up
on elevated convection early in the forecast cycle) shows rather
robust elevated instability along with fairly decent deep layer
shear. Suffice it to say, while the most likely outcome is just a
few benign garden variety thunderstorms, there is the possibility we
could be talking about elevated thunderstorms producing large hail
as we get closer to the weekend. Just something to monitor for now
for folks across southeast Kansas.

After this weekend, a gradual warming trend, generally supported by
broad mid/upper ridging building across the southern and central
CONUS, will bring seasonably warm temperatures back into the fray.
Early indications suggest surface winds will be on the lighter side
going into next week which will help to ease fire weather concerns,
but will continue to monitor trends as we approach next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the period, with just high
clouds overnight. Winds will be the main concern, initially
becoming more southerly this afternoon and evening while staying
around or below 10 kts. Overnight though, winds strengthen to
15-20 kts as a LLJ increases. With the exception of CNU, the
boundary layer looks to stay well-mixed enough to preclude any
mention of LLWS, instead appearing more as low-level turbulence.
Eventually tomorrow morning, winds will quickly turn from SSW to
NW behind a southeastward moving cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Very high fire danger is expected to return Friday through Sunday.

Friday: Southwest winds up to 35 mph will shift to the northwest as
a cold front moves through the area with gusts continuing in the 25-
30 mph range. Relative humidity values in the 20-30 percent range
are expected during the afternoon.

Saturday: Winds will shift back to the south with gusts up to 30 mph
as humidity values fall into the 20-30 percent range.

Sunday: Showers and storms are possible early Sunday with the best
chances along and east of the KS Turnpike. Otherwise, northwesterly
wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...TOP
FIRE WEATHER...BRF/JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
405 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-210915-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
405 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Very high grassland fire danger is forecast Friday through Sunday
as gusty winds overlap with low humidity.

There is a chance for thunderstorms late Saturday into Saturday
night with the best chances along and east of the Kansas Turnpike.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict