Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
153 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will impact much of the area this
  morning and may linger in parts of southeast Kansas. A few
  strong or marginally severe storms may be possible in
  southeast Kansas this afternoon.

- Another storms system will impact the area late Monday night
  into Tuesday and may bring a threat for some severe storms
  but confidence in the details remains low.

- Dry and mild weather returns late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

The large-scale pattern features a mid/upper trough over the
Northern Plains with more subtle shortwave troughs rotating around
this mean trough. One shortwave trough is progged to emerge from the
Northern Rockies as we move through the day today. Ahead of this
feature, we see shower and thunderstorm activity developing within
an area of isentropic upglide that is progged to continue within a
moist pbl. PWATS are expected to remain in the 150-175 percent of
normal range for late Sep leading to efficient rainfall. We may see
some breaks in much of central Kansas as we move through the day but
shower and storm activity may linger in parts of south central and
especially southeast Kansas. Clouds and precipitation will keep
highs below climate normals with most areas topping out in the mid
and upper 70s. Some shower activity may linger into the overnight
hours in southeast Kansas but much of the area is expected to remain
dry.

Mon-Wed...Shortwave ridging is progged to overspread the area on
Monday while a vigorous mid/upper trough digs into the Rockies. Much
of the area is expected to remain capped to deep moist convection
during the day on Monday but as we move into Monday night/early
Tuesday morning, we see robust sfc cyclogenesis across the Southern
Plains as large-scale forcing for ascent develops downstream from
the approaching mid/upper trough. Steep mid-lvl lapse rates and
increasing deep layer shear could support some large hail as we move
into the predawn hours on Tuesday but confidence in the details
remains fairly low at this time. Some shower activity could linger
into Tuesday night and Wednesday depending on the exact track of the
mid/upper trough. With limited insolation and precipitation,
temperatures will remain below climate normals Tue-Wed with most
areas seeing highs in the low 70s.

Thu-Sat...The mid/upper trough is progged to translate eastward late
in the week with dry and mild conditions returning to the area.
Highs are expected to top out in the upper 70s as the low level
airmass begins to dry out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

As of early this morning, a few isolated to widely scattered
showers continued across portions of central and south-central
Kansas. Additional storms are developing across western Kansas
and should move into the area later this morning. Decided to go
with PROB30s for thunderstorms at all TAF sites through the
morning hours (except KCNU) as coverage of storms this morning
is still a bit uncertain. Any sites that see a shower or storm
could see brief reductions in cig and vis cats with brief heavy
rainfall and gusty winds possible.

Showers and storms will move eastward throughout the day, and
should be mainly across eastern Kansas by early this afternoon.
Elected to go with PROB30s for KCNU to cover the chances for
showers and storms this afternoon. After 19-21Z, VFR conditions
are generally expected to return and chances for showers and
storms shifts eastward into Missouri.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
150 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-211900-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
150 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms may redevelop this evening and tonight. Some of
the stronger storms could produce small hail and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The active weather pattern is expected to continue through the
weekend into the middle of next week with additional chances for
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict