Tornado Warning 66, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
552 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1006 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

 - Widespread rain is forecast today with a low chance for strong
   to severe storms this evening, with higher confidence west of
   I-65.

 - A cold front will drop temperatures near or just below the
   freezing mark tonight with cooler conditions through Friday
   night.

 - Temps warm over the weekend with low rain chances returning
   Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 312 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Increasing southerly flow has helped bring temperatures and
dewpoints up into the mid 50s to low 60s across the region ahead
of an approaching cold front currently pushing into eastern
Arkansas. Ahead of this, a prefrontal convergence axis has
resulted in a band of showers over north central MS. This band has
yet to produce much lightning but satellite trends indicate this
could soon change as these showers tap into better instability
into northeast MS. SPC has placed the entire area in a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 5) for damaging winds and tornadoes through the
evening hours. A few things we will be watching for this
afternoon/evening, each introducing its own sources of uncertainty:

1. Breaks in the cloud cover over the next hour or two that could
help temperatures warm by a few degrees. Higher temps/dewpoints
will lead to greater instability thus increasing the severe risk
this evening.

2. Shear profiles are more than sufficient for severe storms, so
monitoring how storms to our west begin to organize in this
environment will provide insight into how they may evolve later
this evening. If storms organize and gain intensity over the next
1-2 hours, expect that to continue across northwest AL this
evening.

3. Model hodographs in the pre-frontal environment indicate
strong directional shear in the lowest 3km combined with deep
layer shear between 50-60kts. This supports the risk for a few
supercells ahead of a more linear segment of storms along the cold
front. Any supercells that are able to form ahead of the front
will carry the risk for damaging winds and a tornado.

4. A line of storms is expected to form along the cold front.
With a SW to NE line orientation parallel to forecast surface
winds ahead of it, resultant horizontal shearing instability will
continue the risk for rapidly forming tornadoes this evening
along the line, but will be more difficult to detect on radar due
the relatively shallow depth of directional shear. Any surges,
kinks, and breaks in the line will need to be monitored carefully
this evening, particularly in areas with poor radar coverage.
Bowing segments within the line would also introduce a localized
damaging wind threat.

The cold front should exit the area between 10-11pm, ending the
severe threat and colder temperatures will follow. With temps
near or just below freezing tomorrow morning, be sure to bundle up
when headed out for the morning commute!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1006 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Cooler temperatures will follow in the wake of the cold front on
Friday with highs in the low to mid 40s. Winds will gradually
slacken through the day as gradient flow broadens out as sfc high
pressure moves in from the west. We will maintain a dry forecast
Friday through the day on Saturday with low temps dipping below
the freezing mark Friday night. We will see a shift back to
southerly winds on Saturday ahead of a broad upper trough that
will shift east over the Great Lakes over the weekend. Moisture
will increase ahead of an approaching cold front late Saturday
bringing low to medium chances for rain back into the forecast
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 904 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

On Sunday, a trough up in the Great Lakes region will push a cold
front into the Southeast. This will spark off a few showers (20%)
and the cooler northerly flow will keep daytime highs in the 50s.
Overnight lows will remain above freezing. The front will try to lift
back northward on Monday, providing another low chance (10-20%) of
showers across the TN Valley. Sfc high pressure in the OH Valley
will slide over to the Mid Atlantic coast by Tuesday, providing not
only dry conditions into mid week, but warmer temps too. We will
reach the lower 60s on Tuesday, and wait for this...reach the low to
mid 60s on Christmas Eve/Wednesday!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

A N-S oriented line of showers and thunderstorms was moving east
at 35kt across far NW AL. There is a risk for strong/severe storms
from east of Huntsville and points west early this evening. Thus,
prevailing MVFR CIGs will be reduced to IFR, and at times briefly
lower with erratic wind gusts over 30kt with the stronger storms,
as they traverse the area. Shower activity should wane quickly
from west to east in the mid/late evening with the passage of a
frontal boundary. VFR conditions should return in late evening
from west to east. A strong wind field aloft has resulted in Low-
Level Wind Shear for the terminals into the late evening, with
winds diminishing in the overnight.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RSB

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