Tornado Warning 11, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1158 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 743 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

[UPDATE 915 PM] A Tornado Watch has been issued for all of
northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee and is in effect
through 4 AM CST Sunday. Make sure to stay weather aware and have
multiple ways to receive warnings tonight!

Currently some light showers are being shown by radar out ahead
of the main line of storms that extends from Louisiana up through
western Tennessee and Kentucky. Both the soundings from Jackson,
MS and Birmingham, AL show a capping inversion aloft (especially
in JAN's). The instability is not as robust in BMX's sounding;
however, the instability may increase as the low level jet
increases tonight. For our area, there is ample bulk shear and Hi-
Res guidance also indicates that there may be a narrow corridor
of sufficient surface instability (and increased low-level lapse
rates) along and west of I-65 tonight. Although, with cold air
damming occurring to our east over the southern Appalachians, it
seems more likely that instability will be a bit more limited over
northeast Alabama overnight. This will be monitored over the next
few hours to see if this holds true.

Overall, the forecast has not changed too much, as we are still
anticipating a line of severe storms to move through the region
this evening and overnight. Damaging winds, heavy downpours, as
well as the potential for a few tornadoes are the main threats.
With an inch or less of rain forecast with the fast-moving line of
storms, nuisance flooding may be a concern (especially with the
rains we've received recently). Although, we are not expecting
widespread flooding at this time. We are going to keep an eye on
our rivers with this rainfall as well as downstream flow, as a
couple of our rivers remain in flood from this past week. As for
timing of the storms tonight, Hi-Res models suggest that our
current thinking (and most likely time) of the line moving
through our area of 10 PM over northwest Alabama and moving east
of our area between 3-4 AM.

Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings tonight,
especially ones that will wake you up!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 101 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

The line of storms will exit the area before sunrise Sunday
morning. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph will remain during the morning
before diminishing by around lunchtime. A colder and drier airmass
advects in from the NW on Sunday bringing in another shot of
cooler air into the TN Valley. Afternoon temperatures will only
be in the upper 40s with overnight lows dipping down into the mid
20s. Given the breezy conditions during the day, a flash freeze
overnight is not expected.

As the upper level trough axis associated with the storms Saturday
night pushes further east of the forecast area, a more zonal flow
pattern sets up across the Southeast to start the new work week.
Dry and below normal conditions continue on Monday with highs only
in the mid 40s and overnight lows once again dropping down into
the mid 20s. These temperatures are approximately 10 degrees below
the climatological normals for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 238 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

On Tuesday morning, an area of upper low pressure should be exiting
to the east from the Canadian Maritimes. West and south of this low,
a generally zonal upper flow should be in place over much of the
CONUS, with weak troughing across the western states. At this time,
an upper level system heading southward across Alberta will result
in an area of low pressure forming over the upper Mississippi
Valley on Wednesday. This system will bring more inclement weather
to the Tennessee Valley for the midweek. Before then, a strong
and cold surface high over Saskatchewan with sea level pressure in
the lower 1050s mb will exert its influence to the SE, and
continue a chilly trend across this area. With more clouds moving
in as the upper system forms, more limited direct sun will result
in highs only in the lower 50s, a bit cooler than average readings
around 58 degrees. These lower 50s will be the warmest temperature
of this period, as more colder air is forecast to arrive for the
mid and latter half of the week.

The upper system consolidating over the eastern plains and western
Great Lakes will bring a wintry mix across the area beginning Tue
night. The latest grids, based mainly on the NBM has a rain/snow mix
for over our Tennessee counties into NW Alabama, with a cold rain
more to the SE. On Wednesday, the mix of rain/snow will continue,
over similar areas of southern middle Tennessee to NW Alabama, with
showers more to the SE. With clouds, good precipitation chances and
cold air advection becoming more dominant, high temperatures for
the mid week will be colder, ranging from the mid/upper 30s for our
TN group and NW AL, with low/mid 40s more towards Marshall, Cullman
and southern DeKalb counties. The system should exit to the east
Wed night with precipitation tapering off from west to east. Went
with a faster track of the precip ending. Total snow amounts should
remain under an inch over our north and western areas, with lesser
amounts to the SE.

Precip ending will help limit snow accumulations, as low temperatures
plummet into the mid/upper teens before daybreak Thursday. With
clouds slowly decreasing and a lower 1040s mb surface high building
SE over the eastern Great Plains, it will very chilly day with highs
only in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A NW-N winds of 5-15 mph will
produce wind chill values in the teens to lower 20s. Even colder
Thur night with lows in the lower teens. High temperatures to close
out the work week should only rise into the mid 30s to around 40
under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

A quasi-linear convective line (QLCS) was moving eastward across
the forecast area, now between KMSL and KHSV. This line should be
impacting KDCU within the next 10 minutes, then KHSV 15-30 min.
Strong to damaging wind gusts over 50kt are possible with this
line, along with a possible tornado. The QLCS should be positioned
east of NE AL by 10Z. A tight pressure gradient around low
pressure over KY will keep low-level wind shear in for another
hour at KMSL, and a few hours at KHSV. Winds otherwise will remain
strong in the 20-30kt range gradually lowering as we go through
the day. Winds should veer from the S-SW to the west after
daybreak, then W-NW winds should fall below 10kt after sunset.
IFR CIGs are expected with the QLCS and an hour or so afterwards,
then become MVFR for the remainder of the overnight into the late
morning. VFR CIGs are forecast this afternoon and evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until noon CST Sunday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory until noon CST Sunday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RSB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1215 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 WNW Mooresville       34.65N 86.95W
02/16/2025  M61 MPH          Limestone          AL   ASOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1228 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Tuscumbia           34.73N 87.69W
02/16/2025                   Colbert            AL   Fire Dept/Rescue

            3 large trees down with live wires and road
            blockage on Davis Court. Time estimated by
            radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1259 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 W Colony              33.93N 87.03W
02/16/2025                   Cullman            AL   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was knocked down at 1718 Alabama
            Highway 91. Time estimated by radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
109 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1231 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NE Huntsville         34.74N 86.59W
02/16/2025                   Madison            AL   Emergency Mngr

            A tree and power line down at 707 Cross
            Street. Time estimated by radar. Power
            outages near UAH (up to 3600) and at
            University at Jordan Lane.

&&

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