Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
208 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Afternoon Update:
Recent high-res model trends have indicated an increasing risk
for discrete supercells forming across northern MS and potentially
extending east into northern AL. While overall confidence in this
is low, any storms that are able to form will be in an
environment with SBCAPE values between 2500-3000J/kg and bulk
shear between 40-50kts. This will support a risk for all types of
severe weather- damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. The
main timing for this threat will be between 4-7pm. Residents will
need to monitor the forecast through the afternoon and early
evening hours in case the risk for severe storms increases
quickly.

Previous Discussion:
Upper ridging will continue to build over the eastern CONUS today
as high pressure sits over the western Atlantic. This high will
compete with a trough over the north/western CONUS that will in
turn lead to multiple days of severe weather and flooding to our
west. Conditions will remain dry today with the exception of a low
chance for an isolated storm or two this afternoon. Synoptic
forcing remains very limited for the Tennessee Valley today and
tonight, and we do believe that the majority, if not the entire
forecast area will remain dry through at least this evening.
Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 80s with very breezy
southerly winds. A Wind Advisory remains in affect from 10AM this
morning to 1AM tomorrow.

The Storm Prediction Center has maintained an Enhanced Risk
(level 3 of 5) for far NW portions of AL for the overnight hours.
Recent high-res guidance trends remain in agreement that the worst
of the storms today and tonight will remain to our west, but there
is some evidence that the line of storms responsible for severe
weather over the lower MS River today may clip portions of far NW
AL during the early morning hours on Thursday. Given the
environment in place, these storms could maintain intensity even
through the overnight hours and will pose a risk for all severe
hazards. We will need to closely monitor trends throughout the day
today, but the past 24 hours have consistently shown the line
getting held up near or just west of the AL/MS State line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 1118 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Not much has changed from the previous discussion for the late
work week. A similar pattern will continue Thursday, Thursday
night, and Friday, with the ridge winning out over much of the
Southeast and the frontal boundary remaining stalled to our
northwest, and even retreating further north on Friday. Should
this trend be realized, it would significantly limit PoPs and the
threat for any strong/severe storms, once again keeping the threat
to our west. Daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s will be common
both days due to the mainly dry conditions. Have maintained low
to medium (20-40%) PoPs along and west of I-65, but this is a very
conditional threat. Thus, confidence in severe weather is low at
this time and trends will need to be monitored in future forecast
updates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

By Saturday and Sunday, a deepening upper-low ejecting from the
Great Basin onto the Southern Plains will attempt to phase with
another trough over the Great Lakes, finally sending the cold
front through the Tennessee Valley during a Saturday night into
Sunday timeframe. There remains a wider range of possibilities
with the evolution of parent storm system and the timing of the
front which will have an impact on the magnitude of any potential
severe weather threat this weekend. Still, guidance is honing in
on some favorable thermodynamics to support the potential for
strong to severe storms sometime during this timeframe. This,
combined with better shear and forcing would support an
environment capable of all modes of severe weather -- and this is
something that we'll have to watch closely as we draw closer to
this event. A cooler/drier air mass will filter into the region
behind the front as highs will notably drop back into the upper
50s to lower 60s on Monday. A much cooler day is forecast Monday
and Tuesday (highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s) -- and
potentially a widespread frost and/or light freeze Monday night
and Tuesday night of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR conditions have mostly returned to the region with occasional
lowering to MVFR cigs at times. Gusty southerly winds will
continue through at least the early overnight hours with gusts as
high as 35kts at times. There is a low chance for a few afternoon
showers/storms but confidence is too low to include in TAFs at
this time. Storms become a little more likely over NW AL (KMSL)
early tomorrow morning where a line of severe storms may push into
the area. With low confidence on where exactly this line of storms
will be stalled at, kept a PROB30 group in from 7-10z for light
showers. This will likely be adjusted in future updates.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Moderate and/or High Risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included the Tennessee Valley in
a Moderate risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures for April 9th.
Temperatures have a good chance of falling into the 30 to 36
degree F range during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...25