Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1100 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A fairly tranquil evening across the Tennessee Valley, save for a
few clusters of showers and storms over middle Tennessee. This
activity may persist for another couple of hours, before
diminishing largely after Midnight. As has been the case the past
few nights, patchy fog will also be a concern in the few areas
that receive rainfall. However, the main story will continue to be
the heat as we'll see little relief overnight, with lows remaining
above 75 degrees in several locations. The heat issues will
continue into Thursday as ample sunshine in the morning will push
highs into the low to mid 90s, with higher dewpoints pushing heat
index values into the 100-108 degree range -- and several
locations in northern Alabama climbing above 105 degrees. A Heat
Advisory is in effect until 7 PM Thursday evening. Once again low
chances (20-30%) of showers and storms are forecast in the
afternoon due to diurnal heating. This activity will be pulse-like
in nature, with a few storms potentially becoming locally strong.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Convection will wane by the late evening and another very mild
night is forecast with lows in the mid 70s once again. Deeper
tropical moisture will begin to filer into the region Friday into
Saturday as a weak area of low pressure along the northern Gulf
pivots into the lower Mississippi Valley. Medium chances for
showers and storms (50-60%) are forecast both Friday and Saturday
as this feature meander into the Mid South region. Localized heavy
rainfall and flooding will be the main concern with this activity
given the slow storm motions and deep moisture in place, but gusty
winds will also be a concern with the strongest activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A broad area of high pressure will will gradually begin to become
established over the Deep South early next week. However, with
ample moisture underneath this ridge, low to medium (30-60%)
chances for showers and storms will remain in the forecast each
day. As we trend toward mid to late week, this ridge will amplify
and become more established over the region. Confidence is
increasing that another heatwave will begin to develop late in the
period as highs in the mid 90s will be common (with some upper 90s
more likely in northwest Alabama) by Wednesday. Combined with
higher dewpoints, heat indices near above 105 degrees may become
more probable. Thus, additional heat products may be needed during
this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each
terminal through the period. However, a cluster of TSRA in
northwest Alabama may create localized MVFR conditions through 09z
at times at both terminals and have included a TEMPO for this.
AWWs and amendments may be needed during this window. Otherwise,
VFR conditions with a mostly clear sky and light southerly winds
are forecast on Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Moderate and High Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included northwest and portions of
north-central Alabama as well as southern middle Tennessee in a High
Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures for July 24th and 25th.
Additionally, the CPC has included northeast and portions of north-
central Alabama in a Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures
for July 24th through 30th. Temperatures above 97 degrees F are
possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ001>007-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ076-096.

&&

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...AMP.24