Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 955 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A line of showers and storms is moving ENE across north-central MS
this morning. This line is associated with a shortwave that is
progged to move across northern AL today. Given the moist
environment ahead of this line, a few showers have popped up in
northern AL and southern middle TN. While there are a few pockets
of sunshine in northeast AL, expect an overall gloomy day for the
Tennessee Valley as clouds will eventually overtake the entire
forecast area. As the shortwave pushes eastward, high chances for
showers and storms are forecast beginning in the late morning
hours across northwest AL and into the afternoon for areas
further east. The main concern today is locally heavy rainfall
leading to flash flooding. Pwats are forecast to be around 1.5
inches, which is above the 90th percentile based on BMX sounding
climatology for this time of year. Combined with sfc CAPE
increasing between 1500-2000 j/kg, would not be surprised to see
1-3 inch per hour rain rates with the stronger storms today.
Severe storms are not expected as shear is minimal at best, but
some strong storms with gusty winds are possible. Areas that have
received higher amounts of rain over the last few days will be
more susceptible to flooding, but as always if you come across a
flooded roadway, turn around and don't drown.

Precip chances decrease this evening, but cannot rule out a low
chance of a shower overnight. Clouds remain in place through
tonight which will keep temperatures mild and only dropping down
into the lower 60s by daybreak Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 955 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Upper level ridging begins to build into the Southeast this
weekend bringing northwest flow to the Tennessee Valley. This will
gradually bring a drier and more stable airmass as a weak cold
front pushes through Saturday morning. Without any significant
forcing along the front, it should pass through without any precip
until the afternoon where some diurnally driven showers or
thunderstorms pop up across the forecast area. The latest CAMs are
showing a drier solution and would not be surprised if most places
stay dry on Saturday.

As the upper level ridge becomes more centered over the local
forecast area dry conditions finally return. Sunday will be a
beautiful Spring day as the aforementioned front pushes further
to our south and east allowing for a less humid airmass to filter
in. Dewpoints will drop into the mid to upper 50s with afternoon
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Our wet pattern is forecast to take a break early next week as
upper level ridging moves in from the west. As rainfall tapers off
by Monday morning, high temperatures are forecast to reach the
low to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies. Dry conditions are
forecast to remain in place through mid week with sfc high
pressure influencing the area from the northeast. An upper level
trough is forecast to begin moving in from the southern Plains,
allowing the Tennessee Valley to be placed in an area of PVA and
rain chances to return on Wednesday. Medium chances of rain are
forecast Wednesday into Thursday as a sfc low approaches the area,
with thunderstorm chances likely during peak heating hours of the
afternoon. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday are
forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across northern
Alabama this afternoon with some storms developing ahead of the
line. As a result, visibility and ceiling reductions are expected
at both terminals with gusts to 25 knots. Airport weather warning
are likely with these storms. Precip comes to an end late this
afternoon returning flight conditions back to VFR.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...GH