Tornado Warning 1, NWS Hanford, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1004 AM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A storm system moves through the region through early Tuesday.
A Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the time period for the
higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

2. Gusty winds redevelop in the Kern County desert and adjacent
slopes this afternoon into Tuesday. A High Wind Warning was issued
for the Mojave Slopes, with a Wind Advisory for the Kern County
Desert.

3. Another weak low pressure system brings a chance of light
precipitation to the northern areas by the middle of next week.
Otherwise, a slight warming trend prevails.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows a band of light to moderate
precipitation in the SJ Valley from northern Kern County to
Merced County, as well as the Sierra Nevada and adjacent
foothills. Satellite loops at this time show the upper-level
trough and cold pool mainly off the coast of Central and
Northern CA. Most locations in the valley have received up to a
quarter inch of rain so far today. Expect another 0.10 to 0.25
inch in many locations in the Central Valley through this
evening, except for isolated heavier amounts where thunderstorms
may develop. As for the Sierra Nevada, amounts are mainly up to
0.50 inch of precipitation (liquid equivalent), while a few
locations have received over 0.75 inch. A slight chance of
thunderstorms is shown over the SJ Valley and much of our
forecast area. So far, snow levels are around 5,000 to 5,500
feet, though are expected to fall to around 4,000 feet by this
evening. Most of the snow will be over the Sierra with the
highest elevations seeing another several inches of new snow (60
to 90 percent chance of at least 6 inches), although a few
locations in Kern County could see an inch or two of snow
accumulations, but mainly above the passes towards the Tehachapi
Mountains where there is up to a 50 percent chance of two inches
of snow accumulations. There is a low chance (less than 15
percent) that the Grapevine could see a dusting near the Tejon
Pass summit by this evening.

Gusty winds will develop over the Kern County desert and Mojave
Desert slopes by this afternoon where a Wind Advisory and High
Wind Warning remain in effect. Latest guidance shows gusts over
60 mph at a 30-50 percent probability of occurrence over the
Mojave Desert slopes. Otherwise, more widespread gusts of 45 to
50 mph are likely (55-80 percent chance) into the desert. Winds
will continue into late Tuesday morning or early afternoon. A
weak upper-level ridge develops for late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Another shortwave trough passes over Central CA late
Wednesday into Thursday. Precipitation, if any, will be light
with mainly slight chances, or 20 to 30 percent POPs, limited to
northern portions for this period.

A warming and drying pattern is in store Friday into early next
week as a relatively strong ridge of high pressure develops
over the Western U.S. Mainly seasonal temperatures prevail until
the weekend, and above normal daytime highs prevail by next
Monday, although some warmer than average temperatures creep
into the Kern County desert as early as Sunday (up to a 40
percent chance of highs at 80 degrees or warmer on Sunday with
chances rising to 50 to 85 percent next Monday), while the
Central Valley's highs could be approaching 80 degrees next
Monday (about a 40-80 percent chance). Latest CPC outlooks at
both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods continue to reflect odds
tilted towards above average temperatures and below average
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Monday Update...
MVFR/IFR with rain/snow/wind for the Sierra Nevada through 12Z
Tuesday. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR cigs continue for the remainder of
the period.

The Kern County Desert and Mojave Slopes have a high probability
of 35 kt surface wind through the period. A less than 10
percent chance of TS exists from 21Z today through 03Z Tuesday.
VFR will dominate with only brief periods of MVFR.

San Joaquin Valley will have VFR dominating, except for MVFR and
isolated IFR cigs/vis due to SHRA through 08Z Tuesday. The main
impact will be isolated thunderstorms across the valley with
PROB30 TS from 21Z-03Z for the region. Post trough AFT 08Z
mainly MVFR cigs dominate.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ337-339.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for
CAZ323-326>330.
&&

BSO/SM/JPK

weather.gov/hanford

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