High Wind Warning 5, NWS Hanford, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
249 AM PST Sun Mar 2 2025

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A storm system moving through the area this weekend will
bring a 40 to 80 percent chance for snowfall greater than 8
inches in the Sierra Nevada. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued valid from 10 PM this evening through 10 PM Monday.

2. Stronger wind gusts associated with the upcoming system will
bring a 70 to 90 percent chance for wind gusts greater than 45
mph each day between today and Tuesday to the Mojave Desert
Slopes. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the area as a
result.

3. After a brief stable period Tuesday, a second system is
anticipated to pass through central California midweek with
another round of rainfall in the San Joaquin Valley and snowfall
in the Sierra Nevada, along with winds in the Kern County
Desert.

4. Below average temperatures are expected through the work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper low over NorCal will move through the northern half of
the Golden State over the next 24 hours and then exits into the
four corners region. The system brings a variety of impactful
weather to Interior Central California today.

First the Mojave Slope wind that hit some 60 mph gusts this
evening and is relaxing to low end advisory levels here on the
overnight. A little lull today before the wind picks up again
this afternoon and upcoming evening. By 9 PM tonight Hi-Res
ensembles give a probability of exceedance (PoE) of 55 mph for
the slopes at 30 to 90 percent. The highest impact area
continues along Highway 14 and 58. The advisory area is in good
shape and even with the lull the long term advisory looks good.

Next up Sierra snowfall and the winter weather advisory above
4500 feet. The probability of greater than six inches ranges
from 30 to 90 percent mainly along elevation lines for
confidence. The spread of 4 to 10 inches with up to 14 inches at
the highest elevations seems in good shape for the deterministic
values. The best confidence in PoE of 8 inches falls around
Sequoia National Park with 80 to 95 percent probability a little
lower for Yosemite National Park with the range from 25 to 50
percent. Deterministic high res models keep the snow around into
Monday morning the advisory goes out to Monday evening. Will
opt not to adjust it at this time.

San Joaquin Valley rainfall seems a fairly easy bet today. The
PoE of 1/4 inch or more of rainfall in the valley ranges from 25
to 60 percent from Highway 99 east to the foothills and west of
the I-5. The Kern County Mountains, Bakersfield south valley,
Grapevine, and Kern County Desert probabilities fall to less
than 15 percent of a 1/4 inch. The low end area has similar
probabilities for 1/10th of an inch.

The last impact is thunderstorm activity for the San Joaquin
Valley with ample cold air aloft with good lapse rates,
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), short wave
energy, and good low top convective index numbers in the post
frontal environment. Looking at the NAM forecast sounding for
18Z at Fresno Air Terminal the mid level lapse rate is 7.5 C/km,
-20C is down to 13kft, CAPE is 161 j/kg, and convective
temperature at 50 F all points to the probability of
thunderstorms. The NBM probabilities for even the one hour
thunderstorm is 18 percent for the mid-afternoon. Freezing
levels around 3800 feet could provide the chance of very small
hail that could accumulate as the main hazard. The mix down of
wind could produce some 40 mph wind gusts. For the San Joaquin
Valley it is a fairly good thunderstorm day.

Monday into early Wednesday a brief induced ridge keeps the
area quiet precipitation wise still issues with the Mojave
Slope Wind.

Late Wednesday into Friday another cold upper low pushes through
the region. IVT and moisture transfer parameters do indicate a
fairly lower end AR mainly pointed at the southern end of the
Sierra and Kern County Mountains. EC EFI does have a small area
of concern for the Kern County Mountains with this event.
Ensemble tables not elevated percentiles, however 97th is the
highest noted. The EC ensemble run-to-run with 500 MB heights
shows again today some lowering of heights and enough of an
angle change that allows for more moisture to enter into the
system as is drops into the region. The cold air aloft again
brings unstable lapse rates and CAPE into the region for another
possible thunderstorm event. This system has the potential for a
higher impact event, however is very contingent on the tap of
moisture just a little push east or west and the AR isn't a
factor. The possible impacts southern Valley rainfall and desert
rainfall. Sierra Snow and Kern County Mountain pass snow, on the
post frontal side of things, with snow levels coming down into
the 3500 foot neighborhood. Mojave Slope and Kern county desert
winds. Then of course the potential of San Joaquin Valley
thunderstorms. An early peak at PoE of 1/2 inch of rainfall in
24 hours from Tehachapi to Kernville is already 30 to 50 percent
that could bring some impacts to burn scar areas in the Kern
County Mountains. This event isn't as slam dunk with all the
moving parts and just little changes and the event doesn't
evolve.

Saturday and next Sunday a ridge builds back into the region and
Saturday the PoE of 70 degrees is 20 to 50 percent. Then on next
Sunday moves up to 35 to 80 percent.

The long range six to ten day and eight to fourteen day outlooks
keeps Central California in the below normal temperature column
with fairly high confidence. A ditto mark for the precipitation
variable for the cooler and wetter March to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update:

VFR to start the period, with the notable exception of KMCE/KMER
where MVFR CIG and VSBY starts the period. However, the cold air
side of the system starts in fairly early in the period after
15Z. This should allow for breaks in the clouds. Lowest cloud
bases hover around the VFR/MVFR thresholds with 20 to 40
probabilities through the day of MVFR CIGS. The issue comes in
18Z through 03Z with thunderstorms. NBM probabilities bump up to
18 to 25 percent for KVIS and north. Will have to PROB30 TS for
that period. For KMCE/KMER/KFAT will use the TS VRB wind gusts
with the better potential of thunderstorm wind impacts. After
03Z MVFR/VFR threshold issues will be there with 30 to 50
probability of MVFR CIGS, will end up carrying MVFR primary AFT
03Z.

Sierra, MVFR with IFR/LIFR in precipitation lasting through the
period.

Kern County Desert...VFR with a 20 to 30 percent chance of
occasional MVFR CIGs. The main impact will be wind gusts through
the period with SFC gusts to 30kts highly probable. Of course
stronger near the Mojave Slopes.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  03/01/2025 14:12
EXPIRES: 03/02/2025 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ338.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Monday for CAZ323-
326>331.
&&

Operations...Proton
DSS..........DS

weather.gov/hanford

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>